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HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY) Message Board

adinvestor1965 52 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 1, 2016 11:51 AM Member since: May 22, 2007
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  • 1) Roark Capital, Sentinel Capital Partners, Wingstop, MOD Pizza, Pieology, Blaze Pizza - All have a reason to be interested and all have easy access to the currency necessary to do the deal.

    2) RAVE's CEO and CFO completely off the grid the last few weeks. I have personally tried to reach them through phone calls to their offices, their personal assistant,, email, and even twitter. I have confirmed with other large shareholders that they have had the same experience over the last 2-3 weeks.

    3) RAVE stock is trading at multi year lows and the insider buying window was open while the stock was trading at $3.50 but there were no buyers despite the significant buys at much higher prices in other recent open windows. Could it be that insiders were restricted these last few weeks due to merger talks?

    4) The space is ripe for consolidation. There are rapidly growing players on one end with valuations exceeding $100m who have great access to capital like, MOD Pizza through Perella Weinberg and Blaze through Lebron James and other high profile financiers of their growth and likely even Pieology/Panda Express, whose charismatic leader Carl Chang appears to be taking an early lead as the catalyst who will bring about this consolidation. RAVE offers two pizza chains for less than half the cost of one of these. At its current $40m market cap, you get a 100 unit Fast Casual Pizza chain (about the size of Pieology before its acquisition of Project Pie) and you get a 200 unit pizza buffet chain. $40m is about 1/3 the valuation of MOD Pizza and Blaze.

    5) Carl Chang is on a roll - The founder and CEO of Pieology said last week after buying Project Pie that "we have both the experience and the strategic and financial support to begin merging the category in a calculated manner" and "The Project Pie purchase provides us with an opportunity to strategically accelerate our growth and we’re proud to make this first big move of hopefully many to come.” With

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Four openings scheduled for July, Pie Five continues to grow rapidly. Number of Pie Five restaurants has more than doubled since the stock was at $15.

  • adinvestor1965 by adinvestor1965 Jun 30, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    Pie Five is easily worth 2x Rave's market cap. No way that the other players in the fast casual space are not circling with the stock this low and also the fast casual players generally who might want to grab a foothold in the pizza space

  • adinvestor1965 by adinvestor1965 Jun 23, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    Pieology acquired Project Pie yesterday and the comments made by Pieology management and investors made it clear that Pieology intends to acquire other players in the space too. I have assumed that Blaze or MOD would be the first to file for an IPO, but I think we now have to include Pieology in that race, as they could be much more aggressive acquiror with a publicly traded deal currency.

  • adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 Jun 23, 2016 9:09 AM Flag

    I am no longer bullish. When they did not file within the 15 days I liquidated my position. I will be surprised if there are good numbers from Longaberger in Q1 and I am freaked out that it is June 23rd and we are still waiting to find out how the company did in Oct - December of last year.

  • adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 Jun 22, 2016 9:16 AM Flag

    Pie Five's crust is already better than Blaze, Pizza Rev and Uncle Maddios and much, much more consistent. The others rely on employees to manually remove the pizzas when they are done and this causes inconsistent results. Sometimes its more than a "nice" charring - I saw two customers get theirs completely burned while I was in Blaze Pizza in LA a few months ago and it was because the guy who was supposed to be taking them out of the oven kept chatting it up with another guy back there. Pie Five's crust tastes better anyway though. Blaze has nothing that can touch Pie Five's thick crust.

  • adinvestor1965 by adinvestor1965 Jun 2, 2016 11:18 PM Flag

    MOD pizza may launch its IPO sooner rather than later to float their currency so they can buy RAVE before one of the other big fast casual players takes it down. With Buffalo Wild Wings and Panda Express buying in to smaller fast casual pizza competitors, you know that someone has to be taking a hard look at buying Rave at these prices. Would not be surprised to learn that some part of that short interest belongs to someone who ultimately wants to buy the whole thing.

  • adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 Jun 2, 2016 11:14 PM Flag

    Lets see if Gier moves on this. ELIO has proven that a Reg A+ offering can work like intended. All of the "believeers" in the concept who bought in at the IPO have are sitting with 100% gains and at times could have sold for more than that. It costs them almost nothing to solicit interest and I think they would see a real pop in the shares when it starts trading if they price it such that Pie Five is worth much less than $100 million. This $40 million market cap is ridiculous.

  • Reply to

    Blaze and Mod Pizza?

    by chaines1443 May 22, 2016 5:16 PM
    adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 May 23, 2016 10:26 AM Flag

    I have tried Blaze and Pizza Rev and I like the crust better at Pie Five. The thick crust at Pie Five is fantastic, neither Blaze or Pizza Rev can touch it. Pie Five is better than the others as leftovers that are warmed after getting cold too.

  • Reply to

    CEO talk?

    by chaines1443 May 22, 2016 4:40 PM
    adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 May 22, 2016 4:51 PM Flag

    A quarterly conference call to discuss results and forward plans would do wonders. When the stock is falling through the floor, it is a no confidence vote for this management team and our CEO needs to step up to the mic and explain. Where are we going and how will we get there? The RAVE website needs work too. Try sending an email to the address it gives for investors. It doesn't work. Try calling the number. There is no way to reach anyone there and that kind of goes with the "I don't have to answer to shareholders" mentality that seemingly goes with the non conference call approach.

  • Reply to

    ? for future CEO's

    by bohemianclubman May 11, 2016 4:05 PM
    adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 May 20, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    Yes, several. Is there a way to reach you with a message besides posting here?

  • Reply to

    ? for future CEO's

    by bohemianclubman May 11, 2016 4:05 PM
    adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 May 20, 2016 6:57 AM Flag

    You addressed both of the key question marks here. Need to see improvement on both fronts, but I think those factors are the only reason why we can buy Pie Five and Pizza Inn at at a $40m market cap.

  • Reply to

    ? for future CEO's

    by bohemianclubman May 11, 2016 4:05 PM
    adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 May 20, 2016 6:55 AM Flag

    You are welcome Bo. I was adding shares here and there until yesterday, when I started adding in a big way. Someone was selling in a big way, because I added close to 20k shares yesterday. Someone dumped another 2500 at $4.10 after the close, so the selling may not be done. But I am very happy to be buying at this level.

  • Reply to

    ? for future CEO's

    by bohemianclubman May 11, 2016 4:05 PM
    adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 May 16, 2016 8:21 PM Flag

    Hey Bo. Good thought re: novelty as I have seen that too. Should not have too big of an impact on P5 SSS though, because they require a store to be open 18 months to avoid that result. I think you are right, this one is on sale though it may remain on sale through the current quarter. This is a great opportunity to load up.

  • adinvestor1965 by adinvestor1965 Apr 14, 2016 2:52 PM Flag

    This is what short covering with a low float stock looks like. Looking forward to seeing the Q4 numbers and hearing the Q1 update.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • On March 30, JRJR Networks had to file an NT with the SEC to delay their 10k by 15 days, not that surprising given that they hired a new auditor (BDO). JRJR does a daily P&L with each of its companies, so they have known for many weeks what the actual numbers are and at this point its really all about dickering with the auditors over nickels and dimes that will be recognized now or later. While the company did not officially release a statement with the filing saying - "hey guys, don't freak out, everything is going great", they did include an auditor approved note making sure we know that earnings are expected to be better than last years. I thought even more telling was the note on John Rochon Jr's Facebook page about Longaberger - where March hit a new record for Collectors Club with over 1,000 new members. This is essentially Longabgerger's version of Amazon Prime. Joining doesn't mean a person has to buy anything or even spend one more dime than someone else, but the reality is they always do and the reported numbers suggest that a person who participates buys significantly more during their membership period. So its not just $50k that Longaberger got in March with no product to be made or shipped, its $50k that was paid to Longaberger indicating an interest in buying more product. The implications for Longaberger''s growth in 2016 are very, very favorable.

    Since it seems that many investors have been hyper focused on the Longaberger situation, a note mentioning record growth there on the day of the NT filing makes me wonder if John Rochon JR was trying to send a message to shareholders.

  • Looks like the short sellers and naysayers have been out in force over the last few days. The shorts have discovered all kinds of disaster around the corner for JRJR. They look high and low for negative angles, but find very little that is substantive to work with, so they invent all kinds of high drama that will surely lead to the downfall of JRJR (as they tell it). If you own shares of JRJR, you have to understand that there are some very desperate speculators who have made a bad bet and they are doing everything they can to try to salvage what they can be convincing others to sell their JRJR shares. Don't fall for it.

    Also, be very careful using stop loss orders because anything in the -20% range has been wiped out each day in a matter of seconds with the stock trading back to the regular range in less than two minutes. If you look at the intraday charts, you will see that this has happened each day since the cusip change. This is a typical covering tactic used by shorts, as they use anomalies in the days trading to push the stock lower so they can cover at those lower prices. The bottom line - don't let their horror story scare tactics shake you from your focus on a really great long term opportunity here and don't let stop loss manipulations be used to steal your shares at artificially low prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reported Short Interest up 20% in two weeks

    by adinvestor1965 Mar 11, 2016 9:37 AM
    adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 Mar 11, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    I haven't seen anything that would lead me to believe that there has been any squeeze buying at all.

  • Last night the reported short interest was updated by the NYSE, looks like JRJR's is up 20% to over 345,000.

  • adinvestor1965 adinvestor1965 Mar 7, 2016 7:08 AM Flag

    It has been awhile since the technicals on JRJR / CVSL were positive. It will be interesting to see if this move brings momentum players into the trade on the long side

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