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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

aequitas45 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 29, 2016 12:29 PM Member since: Oct 13, 2010
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  • aequitas45 by aequitas45 Jun 29, 2016 12:29 PM Flag

    Royal Gold say the sale of Mt Milligan is at a mature stage.

    Scotiabank estimate of effect on Royal Gold

    Thompson Creek Metals’ (TCM) debt wall is quickly approaching and a
    recent media report indicated that a sale process for Mt. Milligan is in its later stages.
    As such, we have taken a look at how various scenarios could affect RGLD. In Part A of
    this analysis, we review the possible scenarios that could unfold in the near-term and in
    Part B, we look at possible outcomes if TCM were to enter a bankruptcy process.
    We believe the market is generally pricing in a favourable outcome for RGLD – yet we
    could see ~10% further upside if a positive deal is announced (i.e. asset sold with the
    stream intact). On the flip side, if TCM is unable to work out a deal and announces a
    bankruptcy, we could see ~30% downside in RGLD shares. There are other possible
    outcomes that fall in between this range.

    Mt Milligan stream is valued at $894 million to NAV Royal Gold.

  • Reply to


    by dip_199 Jun 24, 2016 9:55 AM
    aequitas45 aequitas45 Jun 27, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    Brexit hasn't changed anything fundamental about oil in the short term and probably not long term either. Once the flight to the American dollar is over and US currency drops again the relentless climb in oil price will continue. Give it a month.

  • Reply to

    BTE reports lower break even at all sites

    by aequitas45 Jun 9, 2016 11:24 AM
    aequitas45 aequitas45 Jun 10, 2016 11:02 AM Flag

    Gambler, Yes I have looked at the WTI price vs BTE stock price.
    The equation below gives an estimate of the relationship between them.
    BTE = 0.0034*WTI^2+ 0.0177*WTI + 1.4491
    This equations prediction lines up with fairly well with the stock price predicted by calculating the free cash flow per share from each well site and multiplying the total by 8.
    The results for $50 dollar oil are the essentially the same $11.
    I discount this some what for the uncertainty of the future factor.
    The potential is there.

    Good luck to you

  • BTE latest presentation reports that they have reduced the break even at Eagle from $35 to $32/BBL at Peace from $47 to $46 and Lloyd from $44 to $43. The leverage of the stock value to increasing oil price is huge. IMHO this stock is still way undervalued at $50 oil.

  • aequitas45 aequitas45 Jun 7, 2016 2:50 PM Flag

    I also agree. $8.00 is the next stop off.

  • Increasing demand and supply disruption have put the market back in balance. This verified by the futures market. In the last six months, the degree of contango in both Brent and WTI futures has shrunk significantly, consistent with signs of strong demand and faltering supply.
    The average contango price between 2005 and 2014 was $1.50 per barrel. Today it is now around $2.00.
    All good signs for the oil market to remain above $50. BTE price should continue to rise on this news.

  • Saudi Arabian Oil #$%$ Monday raised its official selling price for Arab Light crude in Asia for the second consecutive month. The company said that the demand for oil was good and they were raising prices by 35 to 65 cents per barrel depending on the grade. This should be good for BTE stock price today.

  • Reply to

    $50 oil netback

    by aequitas45 May 30, 2016 8:33 PM
    aequitas45 aequitas45 May 31, 2016 2:59 PM Flag

    Google "why $50 oil is great news for Baytex energy"