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Tuesday Morning Corporation Message Board

agnmills 189 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 12, 2016 1:49 PM Member since: Aug 31, 2012
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  • Reply to

    SPNS

    by pikuspapa Jun 17, 2016 5:40 PM
    agnmills agnmills Jul 12, 2016 1:49 PM Flag

    I don't see how the Asseco connection would be a drag on price, bc if anything will drive this it's the earnings not the ownership. Interestingly, that, my broker Morgan Stanley, list GWRE and PEGA as competitors, both of which, sell at higher pe's. If we can get pe expansion, and I would expect that in a year if they keep increasing %'s as they have, than the price appreciation will be more rapid. I am looking for mid 30's in 3-5 years.

  • Reply to

    SPNS

    by pikuspapa Jun 17, 2016 5:40 PM
    agnmills agnmills Jul 11, 2016 4:09 PM Flag

    I don't see them getting bought, unless the parent company, Asseco, wants to increae their ownership percentage. They now own a little more than 51%. Asseco has grown via acqs to become the 5th largest software company and as long as SPNS continues like this I can't see any way possible Asseco would sell them. The bigger they get the better for Asseco.

  • Reply to

    SPNS

    by pikuspapa Jun 17, 2016 5:40 PM
    agnmills agnmills Jun 18, 2016 4:31 AM Flag

    I own 4 stocks and this is far and away my biggest holding probably 40% of my total holdings. And have owned for 15 years or so. The last two years, especially, they are starting to hit full stride. They are now making over 15% net, that's an incredible number and it appears sustainable. To me this stock triples in the next 3-5 years.

  • Reply to

    Zimmer Biomet/LDRH buyout

    by cardinal933 Jun 7, 2016 8:11 AM
    agnmills agnmills Jun 9, 2016 12:30 PM Flag

    I don't see the St Jude thing as that big a deal, I believe ABMD has just too big a jump on any possible competition but we'll see

    Not a prob with the tangent. I just think people will be shocked at how turned off most Americans are by the media and all the politicians. I know I am. All of them from NYT to FOX to MSNBC to CNN. They all the same all spewing the #$%$ for their particular sliver of the population. There is no news any more it's just what they spew to their particular fan base. And as to politicians, there is a reason over 50% ex-officeholders now are in DC as opposed to less than 10% years ago, and it's so they can feather their own nests. And imho lower taxes ain't going to happen especially with HRC. The only solution to all this is government funding of elections and getting all the personal, corporate and union money out of election financing. I love that we keep electing people who have never run a business in their lives, just become President and you can learn on the job.

  • Reply to

    Zimmer Biomet/LDRH buyout

    by cardinal933 Jun 7, 2016 8:11 AM
    agnmills agnmills Jun 8, 2016 9:15 PM Flag

    I have been a long, long time ABMD holder, since 95 and even though I love the idea of 140 buy out I think it will be w/o a buy out w/i a year by itself.
    And don't be so sure T will lose. I am thinking he wins. HRC couldn't inspire any one living. Latinos and Blacks will not turn out for her or the Dems like they did for O and the Dems lost tons of seats, in both houses. so don't count anything yet.

  • Reply to

    This Q

    by agnmills May 20, 2016 8:57 AM
    agnmills agnmills May 20, 2016 11:00 AM Flag

    You bring up some great points, one of which is making the hard decisions about closing DD's. It is Mike Balmuths' pet project and he is still on the board. I just wish someone would call them out on it. I will listen to the cc on this one and see.

    As to TJX vs ROST, I own them both and have done so for years. Any one would be hard pressed to have owned better performing stocks over the past 15 years.

    As to management being important in retail, agree, but management is the most important part of any business, I want every stock I own to have outstanding management which is why I only own five stocks. Finding good management is the key and it's tough to find.

  • Reply to

    This Q

    by agnmills May 20, 2016 8:57 AM
    agnmills agnmills May 20, 2016 10:13 AM Flag

    ROST always guides low, why they guide at all, is a good question. They owe the analysts' noting as far as I am concerned and just playing Wall St's game. With all of them "coloring" their #'s. All bs.
    ROST while they seem similar and everyone thinks they are similar to TJX is really a very different company. They should and need to get rid of DD's. Notice how they never break out those #'s. Just as TJX got rid of Wright stores DD's needs to go. ROST can focus on ROST. TJX has many focuses and is trying to be many things. ROST just needs to be ROST.

  • agnmills by agnmills May 20, 2016 8:57 AM Flag

    ROST has another 5=6 years of growth, at the very least, until they fill the US with stores. This Q doesn't mean squat. Forget the analysts and there numbers buy on all dips. This is a long time keeper and will average 15-20
    % returns/ There merchandise people know there customers and there retails.

    TJX comp numbers were better bc of HG which ROST doesn't have but TJX has EU and currency issues. Both are the now retailers and will only benefit as Macy, Dillards, and Target and Dillards all go away. People do not want regular inline, re-order to stock level apparel, the concept is dying as Sears and Penneys know too well.

  • agnmills by agnmills May 11, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    I am postulating 60 for the year and at 20 pe that's 12 and 30 pe at 18, I am also planning on this being 30 within two years.

  • Reply to

    Nice -- dividend!!!

    by revup_cashflowpos_0debt_grtprod Mar 31, 2016 6:45 PM
    agnmills agnmills Apr 3, 2016 3:39 PM Flag

    Don't let the volume fool you, It scared the bejezz out of me, a year or so ago, and was the reason, I unloaded Othinking I had a ton of shares and wouldn't be able to sell them w/o any volume) sold almost 70% of my position all the way down to the bottom at $6.30. It doesn't mean squat, have since built up my stake to double anything else in my portfolio. They are killing it, when the rest of the world discovers it the pe expansion will be huge. DO NOT PANIC their is great strength here. There are executing beautifully. The divi is mainly for Israeli and a strictly culture thing Isreali's for whatever reasons love divis, and certainly the Gov does with it's 25%. It's not all the unworthly as the Gov does a lot of sponsoring on tech upstarts there.

  • Reply to

    If you're short......Watch Out......

    by seasonedinvestor79 Mar 1, 2016 6:42 PM
    agnmills agnmills Mar 2, 2016 8:52 AM Flag

    ROST has been guiding conservatively as long as I can remember and I have been a stock holder since
    1998. Just go back to any Q you want and you'll see they always beat bc they guide low. But it seems as if everyone has finally caught on and as you can see after the initial lower price, with post market yday, it is higher now and will open higher. If it goes through posts new highs today, next stop is $62,

  • Reply to

    4Q

    by agnmills Feb 17, 2016 7:58 AM
    agnmills agnmills Mar 1, 2016 4:15 PM Flag

    oopps now that you said it the jinx is on, it stops here and we can all blame you, lol

  • Reply to

    Valuation?

    by revup_cashflowpos_0debt_grtprod Feb 18, 2016 2:16 PM
    agnmills agnmills Feb 29, 2016 12:03 PM Flag

    If the next Q is as strong as the last 2 Q's than $15. And I am expecting it to double, to $30, within the next 2-3 years.

  • Reply to

    4Q

    by agnmills Feb 17, 2016 7:58 AM
    agnmills agnmills Feb 18, 2016 7:30 AM Flag

    I don't know how long they will be able to do 15% + but as long as they do the stress should be out of this stock no matter what the pps does. No one knows about this stock. Before the earnings I tried to margin it and at first the broker said okay and then later found it wasn't even margninable. If we get some pe expansion, even with it's current pe, it should move up nicely.
    Holding this stock for the next 3-5 years will reward handsomely.

  • agnmills by agnmills Feb 17, 2016 7:58 AM Flag

    Very, very nice to see the eps has gone down on it's own and had nothing to do with SPNS. Love to see the net margin increasing to 15-15.5%. No one make that high margin unless they have no competition or their products are far superior than the competition. And it has been steadily increasing from 12 even as the revenue grows. A great combination for shareholders to be provided with higher pps.

  • Reply to

    What Happened?

    by j4185 Feb 6, 2016 1:52 PM
    agnmills agnmills Feb 8, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    The only thing I can think of is the eps. They made .23 which was down from ly and was expected, in fact, they beat the expected eps by .07 cents, but if they make $1 for the next year the pe at $69 a share is very, very high, and it will take a good year and great guidance to get it back to where it was, imho, I would start to buy as to me this is a very, long term situation. It took over 20 years to get here and competition will have a long time getting to them.

  • Reply to

    Q3

    by j4185 Feb 4, 2016 8:20 AM
    agnmills agnmills Feb 4, 2016 9:17 AM Flag

    This won't give you any "great news" immediately but if you would like to double in 5 years, strongly suggest ROST,

  • agnmills agnmills Jan 15, 2016 12:55 PM Flag

    fyi, legally, re: false accusations, slander is spoken, and libel is written.

  • Reply to

    New Insider Buy Today Jan 7

    by guw1 Jan 7, 2016 9:17 PM
    agnmills agnmills Jan 12, 2016 8:20 AM Flag

    Thank you. There is so much you don't know and so much out of your control and you get completely blind sided so many times. This is probably the only indicator I can think of that would make me buy more or even stay with my present position.

  • Reply to

    New Insider Buy Today Jan 7

    by guw1 Jan 7, 2016 9:17 PM
    agnmills agnmills Jan 11, 2016 1:32 PM Flag

    This same director bought last Spring starting at $4.07 a share and has now spent over $140,000 buying shares in the open market, including Jan. 7, 2016 at $2.03. Not knowing what is happening, except the pps has been going lower, I find in the word on the Big Lewbowski, "The Dude abides, I find that comforting".

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