Thank you for posting this excellent clip. What's important to us SXE holders is that the LNG going out of Corpus Christi has to be fractionated to extract natural gas liquids first...and that's a tremendous opportunity even for a smaller fractionator like SXE! If SXE mgmt can get its financial act together the market will take care of all of us. Thanks again.
If you believe the Seeking Alpha write up on SXE and I do the gain on SXE should be 400% in two years..that author projects a distribution of $0.20/q or $0.80/yr...even at a yield of 8%, high for a MLP, SXE would have a unit price of $10/unit..is this possible? I think so. Consider: by 2016 Guld Coast demand for ethane will jump 700,000 barrels/DAY because of new ethane crackers going on line to produce ethylene(500,000 'barrels/day) and exports(200,000 barrels/day) through EPD's new ethane export terminal going online at the Houston Ship Channel in the nextQ. Propane demand will jump 200,000 barrels/day because of EPD/Targa exports and EPD's new PDH plant going online next spring..and between Chenniere's LNG exports from Corpus Christi and the new pipelines to Mexico 3Billion cu ft /day of natural gas will head to Mexico from the Corpus Christi area. ...all of their will happen. Contracts have been signed, and construction is underway. So, the 2018 markets will be there for SXE's fractionated products....and I like to think that even SXE's mgmt won't screw up an opportunity like this...anyway, I keep adding SXE on the basis that retirement could be very pleasant,
In that index funds are built as a cross section of a marketplace you should have both winners and losers included...otherwise the "index" is an actively managed fund instead of being an index...if you ended up with a loser or two so what? Just try to get a better selection...in my opinion the selection of SXE for AMSI is simply another small vote of confidence that SXE is likely to survive.
This is a BIG DEAL...any fund using Alerian Indices has to buy SXE units to fit the AMSI composition. And a lot more institutional buying will occur after SXE goes above $5/unit.
Midstream MLPs are soaring but my upstream investments like MEMP are in the tank...despite hedging etc etc these firms were all in with borrowing to hilt to buy what is now realized as insane purchases of more reserves and operating acreage based on $100+ oil lasting forever. I fault MEMP for its disastrous management practices and failure to cut costs dramatically like it did our distribution.. Sure, oil and gas are volatile but MEMP sat there fat,dumb,and happy as the roof fell in.
In today,'s financial environment flattening MLP structures, eliminating IDRs, and reducing leverage aren't options...they HAVE to be done for survival...think of the old saying, "The approach of the hangman absolutelyconcentrates one's mind." Think of EPD, GEL,CEQP, and MMP all of which have done these steps...and Targa went one step further by dumping its MLP structure becoming a C Corporation instead. There are all sorts of rumors that PAA is about to do the same. SXE and Holdings will soon follow suit IMO. The one danger as I see it is that Holdings, "Will get the Uranium Mine and SXE unit holders will get the shaft".
You are absolutely right. SXE mainly makes its $s by collecting "wet" natural gas and fractionating it to remove natural gas liquids like ethane ,propane,and butane etc which are sold for various uses. The remaining, cleaned gas is methane which we burn in our home systems and is burned to generate electrical power. The higher the natural gas price the more wells are drilled and the more volume SXE gets. In looking at natural gas prices you want to see them in the $3.50 and higher range. This will juice SXE earnings and stock unit price. A really hot summer, ramped up natural gas exports to Mexico, and a really cold winter will be terrific for SXE!
Just one caveat here is that SXE is more dependent on DUCs involving natural gas and natural gas liquids that it fractionates than the straight oil DUCs. Collecting crude or condensate to put into a pipeline to a refinery or splitter doesn't bring in the $s that count. What we really want is natural gas at $3.50+, ethane at 40 cents/gallon and propane at a $1+. Oil at $80+ benefits SXE mainly in that the naptha from oil used to produce ethylene is more easily substituted by less expensive ethane produced by SXE's fractionators.
You raise a great issue...my sense is that the pricing of recovered ethane and propane will be the critical factors...both are going up significantly...with EPD's 200,000 barrel/day ethane export facity going on line within the next year along with 2017's 500,000 barrel/day of ethane demand for gulf coast ethane crackers SXE should be in fine shape...Both Targa and EPD are ramping up propane exports, and EPD is bringing online a 30,000 barrel/day PDH plant to produce propylene from propane... I continue to buy SXE thinking that in a year good things will be happening!
What is in play here is that 1. Fracking has put the USA in the position of "The Saudi Arabia of the Natural Gas World" by unlocking the massive natural gas deposits in shale 2. Fracked areas drain gas quickly requiring more drilling continually and 3. More drilling isn't going to happen without higher natural gas pricing. My guess is that a balance will be achieved in the $3.50-$4 range. Bottom line is that if SXE can hold out until next year the $ tide will start coming in.
What is important here is that in almost all countries including #$%$ia the oil is regarded as a national property not personal property as in the case of the USA. As a result ALL revenue goes to theCentral Gornmnt leaving little for the area where the oil is actually pumped. To paraphrase "Love American Style", "The very corrupt #$%$ian Government gets the petrodollars, the #$%$ delta oil field areas get the shaft". In my opinion the Delta militants are absolutely correct...their area should be getting at least 75% of the oil revenue with perhaps 25% going to the Central Government. Iraq, Venezuela, etc etc are all the same...and corruption is draining away everything.