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Jack in the Box Inc. Message Board

alexalekhine 131 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 27, 2016 10:50 PM Member since: Mar 22, 2000
  • alexalekhine alexalekhine May 5, 2016 5:27 PM Flag

    You idiot.

    It isn't illegal unless it is untrue.

    If it were untrue, they wouldn't have said it.

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine May 5, 2016 5:25 PM Flag

    Really, and the institutional shorts won't?

  • A few days after Moody's.

    Management's plan to regain investment grade ratings by year's end appears to be on track.


  • Reply to

    Upcoming EZPW Catalysts

    by alexalekhine Apr 30, 2016 1:32 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 2, 2016 9:13 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    Makes no sense

    by vietvet_06801 Feb 11, 2016 9:52 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 2, 2016 4:50 PM Flag

    Man your call sucked!

    2 months instetead of 12???

    OK, just kidding..

  • I see you raised the quarterly dividend from 16 cents to 17 cents on the day before Tax Day.


  • Reply to

    Earnings AH?

    by pler33 May 2, 2016 11:04 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 2, 2016 2:41 PM Flag

    I'm thinking we get a presser after the close announcing when the earnings release will be.....maybe later in the week, or else next week. Just a guess.

  • The stock is up $1.50 in pre-market trading this morning to $25.85.

    As noted in a prior post, the company has more than $300mm of LTM FCF.
    The company has announced it will refranchise 1,000 company-owned stores
    over the next 3-4 years. I have estimated that could raise $750mm in proceeds.

    If we assume that FCF in each of the next three years averages $250mm annually,
    then the company will generate $1.5 billion in cash over three years.

    That compares to the current equity market cap of $1.75 billion.

    That makes these shares ridiculously cheap and completely explains why the
    Board has decided to take this step.


  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Apr 30, 2016 1:32 PM Flag

    1) Upcoming earnings Report
    Date expected: About May 9th but before May 16th

    Possible catalysts:
    a) Good earnings results demonstrated with Grupo Finmart deconsolidated as a "discontinued operation" giving us a first look at the company's results without GF both for Q2 but also for Q1 (by backing out the 3 month numbers from the 6 month numbers)

    b) Possible decision on GF: They may announce a decision to proceed with a sale of GF to a third party or a deal to put it into a JV that they do not control, or (unlikely in my view) a decision to put it into runoff and shut it down). Clearly the latter two would be considered bad news and could hurt the stock price, while the first would be good news and help the stock price.

    c) An announcement of a writedown of the GF entity. Although this seems unlikely after the 10-K filing reiterated its value, they could use the excuse that further analysis revealed an impairment. Obviously this would hurt the stock.

    d) Later, an announcement of a sale of GF could be made; That would be a major positive catalyst.

    e) Announcement of a buyback.
    The shares sell for substantially less than book value and even less than tangible book value.
    I think the market would react positively to a share repurchase announcement using some of the proceeds from the GF sale. However, management has said they want to use the cash to buy more pawn shops.

    f) FTC Requires First Cash to sell stores to do merger with Cash America. The recent merger deal announcement is likely to further incent EZPW to do M&A deals. if the FTC requires their merging competitors to sell some locations because of anti-trust issues (think Staples/Office Depot). That would be bullish for EZPW, a logical buyer.

    Can anybody think of any others?


  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Apr 30, 2016 1:22 PM Flag

    So, Junky, perhaps you could provide your astute analysis of the metrics of the recent takeover deal and how it impacts your view of the valuation of EZPW?


  • Reply to

    Life savings

    by pler33 Apr 29, 2016 9:57 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 30, 2016 1:20 PM Flag

    it completely depends on a variety of "personal factors" including such things as:

    1) What other assets do you own?
    2) How old are you?
    3) How much is your life savings/
    4) Are you including your retirement accounts in that calculation or just your taxable investment account.
    5) How much do you earn? Is it enough to live on?
    6) Do you have dependents (a wife, children, elderly parents to care for)?

    Let's say you are a single 25 year old with $10,000 to invest outside your IRA/401K account, with a job that covers your expenses: Then I say go for it.

    But, If you are a 45 year old guy with a wife two kids and a mortgage, looking to invest 75% of your annual income, then obviously, no, don't do it.

    Funny question, though.

    Remember, diversification is the only "free lunch" on Wall Street.

88.39-0.52(-0.58%)Jul 29 4:00 PMEDT