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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

american_chariot 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2016 10:09 AM Member since: Apr 20, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Giant

    by rross53061 Apr 29, 2016 8:51 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Apr 29, 2016 10:09 AM Flag

    Can you highlight some of them? I read-through the annual report, and I didn't become aware of these "other issues"?

    Also, I think they have re-structured well ahead of a recovery in the oil-well services sector.

    I'm open to all's opinions/thoughts/analysis though?

  • Reply to

    Break even close for many

    by rchites Apr 27, 2016 10:47 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Apr 27, 2016 2:50 PM Flag

    What's "break-even oil" for KEG? I wouldn't imagine they'd have such a metric, given how they are purely a "services' Co. Listen to Schumberger CEO, and you'd want to run-away from such an outfit. Halliburton too....

  • Reply to

    $500 divd

    by wyeth721 Jan 4, 2016 7:06 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Feb 23, 2016 6:45 PM Flag

    If you don't mind me asking, how much capital was your investment to generate that $500 dollars? You became an investor on the 24th of Dec.? They pay-out quarterly?

    Thanks for any info you can provide.

  • american_chariot american_chariot Feb 11, 2016 1:28 PM Flag

    Yeah, in all my days watching gold, I've never seen such a daily rise. There's a lot of "hot money" in these plays now, and many miners have some gaps to fill. AUY only has yesterday's gap to fill, but I'd look for it to consolidate on a pull-back, before re-entering. There were some huge March 18th $3.00 calls-options purchased today, and that might tell you where this is headed short-term. Don't get thrown-out on any shake-out though, imo, b/c this is setting-up to be a long-term play, imo!

    This is a different world than ever before, as the Fed is essentially out-of-bullets, and there's very few places "to hide long" as this un-folds. I'm a huge believer in Gold here, as I have been, only it has taken so long to play-out, and longs have become "dis-believing cynics" along the way. I've made my share of mistakes trading in/out, after years of getting pummeled.

    I'm looking to reenter after consolidation. IMO, we are in the opening innings of a massive stock-equity re-set, and gold will lead-the-way, as folks realize beyond a shadow of a doubt, how massively inflated the stock-market has become by the effects of QE-1,2-and 3!

    IMO, AUY at/near, and especially below $2.50 is a STEAL given what we're actually dealing with in the Markets, especially as it concerns the contagion and credit risk involved with insolvent oil plays, and European banks. Look at these "troubled assets" for direction: DB, CS, CHK, GNW, GLCNF and these are only a smidgen of the bigger players that can cause credit-contagion risk downstream. There are a host of smaller (actually quite big, but relative to these biggies here, "smaller") entities teetering on the brink if insolvency. What can the Fed now?

    Gold has now where to go, but up, imo

    GLTUA!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • american_chariot by american_chariot Jan 22, 2016 1:02 PM Flag

    Give me a bit of a scare, talking about "ratings review from Ba1", which is speculative in itself. Still, family credit rating is dicey and up for review. Moody's could really give GFI another "hole"; Just be aware...they are already rated "negative", and that's not Happy. Yet, when I look at some of the other miners, and their debt:assets, I see a smear here. I don' think GFI is as "dicey" as Moodys' points-out, especially seeing how they've been one of the few outfits to at least book some profits of late, no matter how minimal. GFI is working to get their debt down to 1:1. We'll see, and it's a decent gamble on the gap-fill, imo, dare I tell you the level!

    Just wanted to inform the board, so you're not "flying blind" if you decide to bite here; On the flip-side, Goldman upgraded GFI from "sell-to-hold", but I think it's just s reiteration, b/c they issued the same rating some number of months back.

  • american_chariot by american_chariot Jan 22, 2016 11:51 AM Flag

    Actually, AUY faired among the best of the x12 Canadian miners Moody's put-on review, not receiving the "possibility of default" note, nor the "family credit downgrade", highlight, both of which can sky-rocket a Co's borrowing cost. If you look at the list, and read the notes, there are many others who didn't fair so well.

    AUY is on watch for a possible ratings downgrade from "stable" and they only list one bond at risk:
    ..Issuer: Yamana Gold, Inc.

    ....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Baa3, Placed on Review for Downgrade

    PS: I tried posting the link to the specific page, but if you go to Yahoo's main article about the "miners in review for possible Moody's downgrade", article, and click on the highlighted section about Moody's, you can work your way to the "x12 Canadian metals miners".

    Things could really get ugly for so many outfits, if they have a full basket of ratings-downgrade, especially if their debt is rated "negative". It's not just the metals miners, but so many oil-and-gas outfits as well!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Looks like it will be a good start...

    by stoll62 Jan 20, 2016 9:04 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 20, 2016 11:04 AM Flag

    I agree with both arguments here; Yes, most people believe in the "equities-come-roaring-back" theory, b/c they have been conditioned to believe that the Fed's massive stimulus meant that stocks gained most of their phenomenal traction "on their own merit", while nothing could be further from the truth. Just look around you: "are things roaring-back for you, the average-Joe"? Is that why someone with such radical views as "Bernie Sanders" is gaining so much momentum? Or even Donald? No, we are living in a massive Fed-bubble, that is only just beginning to "pop". We gave-away $4.5-trillion of our treasury, to Wall-Street and Big-Banks, and tried to peddle the "tall-tale", that massively huge equity values, equated to "big-strong, recovered economy". I hate to say it, but read my past post for x5-years back. This is only getting going, and unfortunately, it must play-out, as it will, and outside further Fed stimulus, there's a lot of hot-air yet to escape in equity prices.

    Heck, are we so naive to believe that commodity prices aren't SCREAMING something is way-way wrong? No, we are NOT that naive, and many of us well know "what's really going-in". People have made SO MUCH MONEY off the Fed's back and support; Sand thing is, we'll all pay for it, as this bubble comes-back-down to Earth, and frankly, it's damn un-fair for the average Joe, b/c "we are all affected". Just look at all the lay-offs happening! All b/c we let Wall-Street NOT ENDURE, the real consequences from 2008/9, and let the Market, organically, determine equilibrium of equity prices. Instead, we enriched corporate paper to such a degree, that, this is now what we get, when the Fed pulls-back, and says, "it's on you now". I really hope/pray it doesn't get as ugly as it well can! We'd be apt to pay attention to history and see what happens, when a culture opens-up the flood-gates of wealth-disparity, and calls it "GOOD". Heaven help us!

  • Reply to

    What I hope...

    by american_chariot Jan 9, 2016 11:14 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 9, 2016 11:33 AM Flag

    Cont.II, the Fed having raised +.25% of their Federal Funds Rate. And what have we seen? Well, everyone is trying to blame everything on China, and with some reason. You don't just "close down your stock Market" that easily, for two-days in 2016, and change policy at the whim of experimentation. But, what people are missing is that "this isn't just all about China". Unfortunately, it's so much more, a perfect storm of events, catalyst and ingredients, that imo, should have investors seeking safety AT ALL COST! This includes buying gold, or holding as the case may be.

    There is a great article about Stanely Druckenmiller here: h***://www.businessinsider.com/stanley-druckenmiller-successful-because-of-the-fed-2016-1

    Gaps don't have to fill, but if you look at the monthly chart in GFI, and many other Gold stocks that formed run-away gap-ups after the Chinese malaise ignited a huge flight to safety start of New Year, I think you'll see that unless we advance on a multi-year leg-up, and leave these lower gaps to get filled "years-down-the-road", that you'll see a final attempt to flush-out gold holders, and a real scare, ONE LAST TIME, to route gold. That's when I would buy with both feet, and I hope/pray for the opportunity, b/c the timing, the backdrop, the world-stage is ripe for gold to blossom. The main downside I can see, is the extremely deflationary environment that is unfolding. And I don't see the Fed's determination to bring inflation up to 2% happening, especially since they've already begun the rate-raise cycle. Thus, it's hard to see the big inflation that the Fed even says should be coming, as they have begun their rate-raise cycle, to head-such-off. But people are scared now, and they aren't waiting to determine what inflation will or won't do.

    In short, what I have learned almost more than anything about the Markets in the last-past x7 years, is how effective and affective the Fed is in determining asset values. In closing, read link up!

  • american_chariot by american_chariot Jan 9, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    Is that GFI somehow fills that lower-end gap at $2.20 I have been disillusioned with Gold, and have held options of this stock for so long, and have watched this thing under-perform for so long, that I have/had nearly bought-into the "Gold is dead/worthless" mantra pushed by the Fed-induced, stock-bubble folks even since Quantitative Easing began in earnest. But what many of us missed in the early years, is the insistence that the Fed's policy would lead to massive currency devaluation and inflation, right away; Instead, we saw the exact opposite, and we trudged through the folly of "Fighting the Fed", by buying hard-assets in the face of a paper catapult, that lifted all things corporate equity into the stratosphere. Meanwhile, us earnest gold-holders have been "slammed, bammed, derided and called bugs, kooks and worse". But then a tell-tale things happened. Stanley Drukenmiller invested north of $250-million of his personal fortune in GLD, late last year. But his bet seemed paranoid and without merit as 2015 rolled-on, and money mangers certainly weren't going to sell the winning bets they had made for the past x7 years at the end-of-the-year, even though the Fed put the "CLOSED and LIGHTS OUT" sign on the buy-any-stock-and-we-guarantee-it-will-go-up on Wall-Street's dais in November. So that really fooled me, and I kept posting wonderments over "what the heck was Mr. Drukenmiller thinking, recklessly sinking so much money into such a sinking idea". But then another strange thing happened, 2015's trading turned into day-1 of 2016, which was actually Monday, January 4th, the first trading day of 2016, when big-money was back from the Holidays, and it had no compunction to hold gains for end-of-year taxes. Instead what did we see? We saw the Chinese stock Market close early due to their -7% automatic circuit breakers kicking-in, we saw the first real time that our Market wouldn't trade at the behest of the Fed's endless backing, their having...Cont. II

  • american_chariot by american_chariot Nov 25, 2015 5:35 PM Flag

    I know he's a billionaire, but even at $2-Billion, losing principle on a $250-million GLD bet is a big hit. When he first announced his big purchase into GLD, I felt a little more secure, figuring he's have more insight than others, since he's plowing his greatest amount of money into this asset-class. But low-and-behold, he's getting fleeced, along with every other gold-investor.

    I personally think people don't realize how powerful the Fed is to dictate the Markets and USD valuation. Unless things slip beyond their control (one thing Miller was figuring in his big-GLD-bet!), they will continue to juice the stock-market higher (even with their so-called tightening, it will be so minuscule, and so non-traditional, as in, no "tightening cycle", but rather, a series of hodgepodge, let's "see-what-happens-if-we-try-this", type experimentation", that you'll never know that the Fed actually tightened.) That's my guess anyhow.

    But I did think Drunkenmiller would be a little wiser than to get so fleeced as he is. Damn, just goes to show!

  • Reply to

    Stock Price Manipulation going on.

    by runningblackbeardog Nov 23, 2015 8:19 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Nov 24, 2015 5:55 PM Flag

    People don't want to acknowledge, much less believe, the rampant, often big-institution manipulation of Markets, that goes-on routinely, while the SEC sits-on-its-hands. What ever happened to the US Justice Department's investigation into the Big-Bank gold-price fixing scheme?

    Y'all, ever since the Fed co-opted our markets in 2008, with their $4-5 trillion-dollar backstop of not only the stock-market, but also the big-banks, we've seen nothing but a strong-strong Market that can never really go-down! It's being held-up by the Fed, and the Fed's policies have hurt other economies currencies, while sending ours through-the-roof; And all this has put "gold" into the toilet, even though the physical market has never been bigger, or seen more "buying by nation-states". They've turned true supply-demand economics 101 on its head, and not it's all about putting money into Wall-Street's pockets, at the expense of nearly everyone or everything else in the world, savers and pensioners be damned! But, this obscene largess won't go without consequences. IMO, we've sown the seeds of a great financial calamity yet to come, b/c real Market valuations have been turned on its head, and now it's all about Fed-induced actions. Yet, the Fed is the biggest bank in town, so, as long as they can dictate policy and have the Markets respond, in kind, then all is well; It's when they lose their power and legitimacy that "all heck breaks loose". One only need study a bit of world history to see the end-result of "all this"...and it's often "not pretty"! GLTUA! eom!

  • Reply to

    I invested in a new chart service

    by zer0t0l Oct 23, 2015 7:21 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Oct 27, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    I've been looking at this stock chart-wise too, and it's hard to call a "fantastic bottom entry", but if the recent low in WTI oil prices wasa $38.25 on August 24th, '15, then buying on this pull-back from the nice +$10-dollar run in RDS-A, ($40-to-$50 quick climb!) and now buying near the 52-week low in the middle, would be a great-great long-term buy; However, if you are in the camp that oil prices haven't quite see "the bottom" for this year, or early next year, then you'd want too look at the "strong double-bottom formation" at RDS-A at $32.35 , which hit Dec. 26th of 2008, and extrapolate-out for "another scare 2nd-leg bottom" somewhere around that figure, and wait to start accumulating big then. Both time to grab-on-big in this stock are #$%$ shoots, imo, b/c it's hard to tell about world-wide demand if China doesn't start-back-up big, and/or if we start trending recession here in the USA; These considerations along with Iran's 1-million barrels a day (eventually anyhow), and we could indeed see such a "scary double bottoming situation" develop.

    It really all depends on your current vested amount, what you ultimately want to acquire in this Co., and where you gut-feel think we're headed. Personally, I'm just an observer at this point, and I would go hog-wild long if RDS-A got near $32 again, barring it so doing wasn't under "Wolrd-wide Depression" conditions.

    To be safe, and if you've got a lot of buys to make, I'd begin accumulating on big-down days like today, and save power for such a scenario outlined above. $45 feels cheap for this stock long-long term, but that doesn't meant that it won't #$%$-out, making such a historic true double-bottom formation, from 2009's first bottom at $32. We'll see...

  • Reply to

    GAS PRICE WHERE YOU LIVE.

    by theroz43 Oct 27, 2015 10:33 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Oct 27, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    Memphis, TN $1.85-1.90 (Of course, it varies, but this is about the normal "cheap" price you can fine, all the way to $2.10, anything higher and you are way-way over-paying in the Mid-South.)

  • american_chariot american_chariot Oct 9, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    If I can get-out of my options position with any respectable results, I will stay far away from ANY investment that is so manipulated; Of course, that leaves me hardly investing in any thing, b/c so much is "controlled and manipulated". But lesson learned, and I'm just hoping for some kind of graceful exit from this madness of fraud, that appears to have the blessing of regulators. Libor, CDS-CDO scandal mired in mortgage fraud, gold-bench-mark rate fixing by the London crew, lying Goldman-Sachs CEO Blankfein, selling short-and-long, duping clients along the way, then saying "he did nothing un-ethical or illegal. I could go on-and-on-and on.....

    Needless to say, even as I write this here, you can observe the bank's "controlled black-box naked-short machines" kicking-into-high-gear, whacking the miners. If by some miracle, the Comex pog can close above $1,150, that's bullish, and if we can break $1,170 strongly, then I don't care how low they attempt to snuff the miners, b/c the pog on the Comex will have shown great technical bottoming. Of course, I'm not holding my breath. "Gold Price Fixing charges (investigations) by both the Justice Department and Swiss authorities, only means that "someone confirmed what we've observed all along"----massive manipulation by the big banks! Against that kind of backdrop, how can a small-fry investor hope for anything less than complete annihilation! One of these days though, average Americans really will say "enough's enough" and if they/we don't directly address the issue "in-the-streets" (on Wall Street specifically), then we'll probably elect some one like Bernie Sanders, who will honestly fight this US-Gov. sanctioned THEFT!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Oct 8, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Manipulation my friend, pure-and-simple. The Justice Dept and Swiss authorities aren't flapping their lips for nothing when they talk about "investigations into gold price-fixing by the major banks". This is one of the most rigged markets I've ever seen in my time trading the Markets. Word to the wise, if the POG doesn't get-up and hold above $1,150, then on to $1,170, breaking above that level on good volume, DON'T WASTE YOUR TIME/MONEY!

    This is total B/S and manipulation and it's called FRAUD. No reason in the world the POG should be down when there will be no interest rate raise this year, revealed by the Fed today. One of these days,...one of these days, is all I can say! Until then, one could hardly dispose of his/her funds any quicker than investing in any type of gold instrument, and I'm surprised Stanley Drunkenmiller got hood-winking into the GLD to the tune of $130-million recently! Just goes to show, ANYONE can get fleeced!

  • Reply to

    Dollar FALLING against EURO after FED

    by statsmike Oct 8, 2015 2:52 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Oct 8, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Don't hold-your-breath; Don't forget that two substantial probes (Justice Dept and Swiss), investigating "price-fixing" in the gold market, by the big major banks. It was obvious today, how the Comex was stangle-held at $1,150.8, then shorted into the ground. Gold can't break $1,150, which it really needs to do, to show some technical strength, much less the $1,170 it needs to get-over to break the downward channel. Don't think that these manipulators don't know this. By all accounts, the Fed minutes were bullish for gold, but the controllers wouldn't have it. If I wasn't already-in some gold miner options, I wouldn't consider a gold trade until the POG of gold was bidded higher, on higher volume, than $1,170. Until then, one is throwing his/her money away!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Oct 8, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    I think this is total B/S, but it would explain why GFI is stuck-in-the-mud, versus the other gold-plays!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Oct 7, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    You're wrong, it is about "money supply", but your example of increased money supply since QE, is mis-understood. The velocity of money is low-low-low, b/c banks aren't lending and people aren't taking-out big loans. If the "velocity of money" were high, you bet we'd have massive inflation, especially on the back of a Fed 4-trillion dollar balance-sheet. Gold has been manipulated beyond normal trading, and you might also understand it's in the US Government's interest, US-Banks and US-Corporate's---all beneficiaries from the Fed's massive largess, to see gold down big.

    You have the Justice Department earlier this year, that supposedly was looking at big-bank gold-fixing charges, then the Swiss recently. Are they all gold-bug kooks? I doubt it, but what they'll probably conclude is that "those doing the manipulation" are back-stopped by the US-Governments, so "hands-off" and no charges will ever be forthcoming.

    But the health of the whole Market system is at stake, and Gold can only be manipulated as long as there's the appearance of "everything being OK with the Markets". Once the $4-trillion Fed balance-sheet comes-into-play, and inflation becomes something to absolutely contain, you'll see gold have its day. Also take note, just how far gold as come since "funny-money has become a way to do business with US-Government in bed with Wall-Street". POG in Oct 2000 = $370, POG in Oct 2015, x15-years later = $1,145 And you talk about Gold having no value under hardly any conditions? How about an increase in value of 300% since year 2000? Thing is, imo, it's way undervalued relative to the "financial engineering taken place since 2008", and as I related, since the "velocity of money is muted", we haven't seen ANY EFFECT from that massive stimulus, money-printing scheme.

  • american_chariot american_chariot Oct 1, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    II

    ...the average Joe worker, you and me, will REACT, and that's why you keep hearing about the Stanley Drunkenmiller's huge fear-trade into GLD to the tune of $130+ million, along with Carl Ichan's recent tome and warning about the huge disparity between CEO pay and regular-Joe's pay, and the hugely sour Market we may be in store for....

    These guys don't normally blow-blue-smoke, and sound an alarm bell. These are huge hedge fund leaders, who have seen the obscene wealth gap that has taken shape these last x15 years, as a strong, viable middle-class American has been pushed further and further into service-caliber, part-time work, and lower-and-lower real wages.

    In reality, the type of world we live in should be pushing gold to all-time highs, but instead, we've seen the exact opposite, as the Fed, tries everything in its play-book to keep the charade marching-on. But fundamentals do matter and in the end of every great civilization, that's what determines "viability, growth and staying power". At the demise of so many cultures past, is unprecedented corruption, fraud and manipulation at maintaining a "appearance of strength". B/c of all this, that's why you have a candidate like Donald Trump leading in the poles, b/c even though he's a "successful businessman and misogynist ", deep-down people and the citizenry know "we are in trouble" and we need significant real change if we stand a chance at being a strong country, economy and power.

    All this said, I am stuck in the some gold options dated 2017, and I sit-by and watch them wither day-by-day, but I know gold will have its day, especially as the fraud reaches its maximum sustaining power, and folks realize "what's there really left that has value"? But from what level that POG will shoot-up from, or how long the Comex can't distort, I don't have a clue. I suspect, just like coal, many oil plays, other basic materials and commodities sector, many bk's can ensue first.

    GLTUA and heaven help us all, im

  • american_chariot american_chariot Oct 1, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Thing is, not one CEO from any of the gold-miners, junior or majors, has come-out in support of now a Swiss investigation, along with a supposed Justice Dept "possible investigation" that we've never heard another word about, since it was announced this past Summer.

    I've come to the conclusion, with the Comex's nearly 100:1 derivatives-to-actual-physical-gold "paper products" (that's huge funny-money leverage, btw), is a totally rigged-to-the-hilt, out-right scam. It's almost "what's the point"? So much of our Markets are like this, yet it goes on-and-on-and-on, and imo, even though we haven't seen the fruits of such fraud market-wide yet, we will, as such seeds have been thoroughly sewn. We'll see it with the Fed's attempt to "normalize" from an obscenely abnormal intervention, which imo, sealed-the fate of the Market's big demise, in it's "way over-board, gargantuan US bank-and-corporate well-fare give-away, to the tune of $4-trillion", yet we like to act as if "nothing much happened, and any day now we will RETURN TO NORMAL". There are so many duplicitous, conniving, disingenuous and outright fraudulent dealings in the broad Markets, that they have become pretty much un-investible, imo.

    I would say, about the only thing one could possibly put their money into and have it do well, are the smatttering of New American companies that come public, and represent a sea-change in the business they offer, and are new-and-fresh and not as subject to the dictates of manipulation and fraud; But these are far and few between, especially as many companies have recently held-off coming public in our recent "down Markets".

    Fraud and manipulation in the Markets are now commonplace, and have lined corporate Wall-Street's pockets since the Treasury and the Fed gave-away-the-store, on top of stealing people's homes during the CDS/CDO debacle, which never has been "reconciled or corrected", but only made more perverse. One of these days, the average US Joe working will....

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