check the math and ease of convenience with AFrezza (no frig, no needles, no disposing used needles. People splurge on travels, $100 is a meal!!! NO spirometry is needed for short usage, eliminate the bottleneck.
hey dummy! If Afrezza was used as bridging during travels, which is not a chronic use. Do you think they still need FEV1 requirement.? Thanks you brought up a good point there.
dumb people like yourself only get to travel ONCE in a lifetime. Other travelers travel often. One FEV1 for all the travels isn't bothersome. packing insulin, needles, and worrying about refrigeration and disposing needles on vacation is more troublesome.
1.2 billion traveled internationally in 2015, that's not including domestic and car travelers. 10% of the population is diabetic; hence, 120 million are diabetics. Let's #$%$ume that those diabetics who depend on insulin wheather long acting or short acting decide to ditch their needles and insulin injection during their vacation. Let's face who would want to bring needles, worry about insulin refrigeration, and where to dispose used needles during their travels? That is when Afrezza bridging for their travels comes in.
Let's #$%$ume 100 million travelers world wide need insulin bridging. Let's #$%$ume that mnkd can charge $100/wk of Afrezza bridging during their travels. That is a $10 billion/year revenue!!!!!
I think mnkd should tap into the world of travelers. Who gives a rat's #$%$ if Afrezza can substitute short acting insulins or not. The niche market can make afrezza into blockbuster, without even trying to compete.
yes because even if afrezza does not substitute short acting insulins, it still can be marketed as a niche drug for travelers which I think has its own huge potential alone.
we have only a few facts to work with, so the rest has to come from some degree of projections but I think the projections are low and easily attainable.
lung cancer is higher in the general population than afrezza group, get over it.
the way I see it is that any BP can spend some money advertising AFrezza correctly and garnish an easy $2 billion/yr revenue from the start. SNY really screwed this one over; I would be happier to see a different company taking over and turning AFrezza into a blockbuster that it truly is.
We can speculate til the pigs fly on marketing strategy but if mnkd had money to advertise for Afrezza usage during travels which is ideal because patients don't want to be packing syringes and worrying about refrigerations of their insulin injections.
1.2 billion traveled in 2015, 10% of population has diabetes, that is 120 million traveled in 2015 with diabetes. Let's assume that half of those have insulin dependence that require meal time control. So 60 millions travelers world wide can use Afrezza during travels. Now this is a market where mnkd can up the price because of convenience and short time bridging of insulins with Afrezza. $200 per week of bridging x 60 million= $1.2 billion in revenue form travelers alone in a year.
initial adoption maybe 3/5 but later on it will be much higher, more like word of mouth. I am a doc, in this day and age where patients have almost full autonomy over their healthcare, and managed care systems are competing to retain patients' satisfactions and retention, what patients want matter. Patients will ask for NO NEEDLE. Afrezza has added bonus effects of fast onset and offsets, no patients want to struggle delay of treatment and struggling with prolonged effect of insulins causing hypoglycemia.
was this preplanned all along that SNY was just going to get Afrezza into the pharmacies and insurance coverage? Think about it, why hasn't mnkd suing SNY for the obvious sand bagging? Has SNY been played by mnkd, and have we all been played by mnkd? Was the launch intended to be self launch from the start?
Assume that each of the 70 drug rep are able to conduct an Afrezza dinner/conference every night of the week. Assume that each dinner comprises of 5 doctors, and 3/5 comes out as prescribers for Afrezza. 70 reps x 5 days x 3 docs/day= 1050 docs/week able to prescribe.
According to Sam Finta's number, out of 100 docs reached by SNY reps, over 650 scripts were written each week. Thus each doc on average wrote about 6 scripts/week.
Take 1050 docs/wk x 6 scripts/doc/wk= 6300 scripts/wk x 52 weeks= 327,600 scripts per year.
Assume Afrezza charges $2500/yr, total revenue from the scripts in a year is: $819 million the first year.
this offering was offered to selected institions, SNY buyout!
your logic doesn't make any sense. Any institutions that buy shares have to believe that the share price will eventually go north of $1, that is a fact. After they have bought, they can use that position to hedge if they want to; let's say it rallies to $10 which they can short but has the protection from share ownership. Thus, they make $10 on the way down and use their $1 share ownership to hedge.
BTW, your plan of dilution at $8-10/sh is good but rudimentary. I would have to give credit to management that they had to be able to have that kind of foresight. I think the recent secondary offering is to give the buyer a discount on the buyout price. You'd better buy back soon; otherwise, I feel bad for your years of holding.
the 50 million share is going to institutions; we have no idea who is buying behind these selected institutions. I smell a buyout set-up. First they accumulate 50 million shares at $1 then they buy more shares at the market, then they announce the buyout a couple of months later. They buyout price is significantly reduced.
I think you made a bad decision on anger and rage. This dilution of 50 million shares is going to institutions; you have no idea who is buying. The institutions could be set up by SNY, Pfizer, or Google essentially getting cheap shares. If the buyer is getting 50 million shares at $1/sh, this can really lower your buyout price. This offering increases the probability of a buyout more now.