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Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

apgarvey 57 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 1, 2016 1:39 PM Member since: Dec 17, 1997
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  • The argument about the best method for colon screening at different ages will continue for a while. How does anyone argue FIT is NOT the preferred method for patients over 75, when the morbidity for colonoscopy is 0.68% vs 0% for FIT. The other age groups have proponents either way and the answers won't be clear for a year or two. FIT will have a prominent place.

    But everyone seems to be missing the real use of Cologuard...anemia and occult bleeding workup, especially in the elderly where testing is risky. Don't you really want to know is if the patient's have colon cancer, while you work up the other forms of anemia or microscopic blood loss? How many people taking Eliquis, Pradaxa, and Xarelto as well as coumadin bleed small amounts? When they do bleed a little, is it because they have cancer or is it the medication? What if they have genetic problems taking one or more of the anticoagulant drugs? Carefully monitoring the blood loss might be reasonable until they get their left atrium ablated. It sure beats having a stroke, but colon cancer is worse. So why isn't Cologuard perfect in these patients? Why hasn't anyone talked about it? The market is huge for this use...this is way safer than investigations in people over 75. Is there a conflict of interest because doctors make money from invasive procedures like colonoscopy?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    AGN = $373!

    by timetraveler2u Nov 25, 2015 10:51 AM
    apgarvey apgarvey Nov 25, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    AGN is way undervalued. PFE trades at the dividend which will hold the stock at the $33 range. There is nothing the Treasury can do to block this inversion because of the 73,000 pages of the US Federal Tax code cuts both ways. And PFE has plenty of attorneys. Imagine Bernie Sanders complaining about the tax code when he has done nothing in 24 years to fix it.

    The real dividend will be the split in 2017-18 of the Branded and Generic pharmaceuticals groups. This is the best and surest investment for the next 2 years on the stock exchange. In a few weeks the institutions will realize this.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    USPTF Membership

    by valpo999 Nov 18, 2015 5:32 PM
    apgarvey apgarvey Nov 19, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    They, like many medical panels, are older, not recently trained, physicians and academics that don't see a lot of real patients. They err on the side of not changing anything for years after the evidence is clear. Their medical opinion is considered a higher level of evidence than published research. That's is why flexible sigmoidoscopy is still included in the guidelines. Any doctor doing a flex sig in 2016 in the US for colon cancer screening will have a hard time defending it before 12 people at the Courthouse in a patient with a right-side colon cancer. None of these "experts" could even qualify to testify in the malpractice trial.

    When you look at the make-up of the USPSTF there are no gastroenterologists and only 3 physicians that have any training in primary care. It's easy for them to believe a patient would prefer a colonoscopy and get one regularly. Apparently economics was not something they considered recommending a $3000 test that has risk of death rather than a $300 stool test with zero risk. Considering the current fee-for-service reimbursement environment perhaps they voted to protect doctor's income from colonoscopies since this test is going to decrease that revenue substantially.

    It's time to be patient here...this test has substantial off-label uses that I will discuss in a different post. Less

  • Reply to

    You guys should keep following Einhorn

    by muhney Nov 19, 2015 10:18 AM
    apgarvey apgarvey Nov 19, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    Better yet, study his background. He has only an undergraduate college degree. The emperor has no clothes. He is fundamentally a gambler. He made one lucky short of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and has lost money since. He pled guilty to securities fraud in the UK. His veiled attempts at market manipulation in this country have failed recently. Only because he has had institutional lemmings in his hedge fund masquerading as an off-shore insurance company, he has remained in business.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • apgarvey apgarvey Oct 7, 2015 6:40 AM Flag

    You are correct that USPSTF got this wrong, at least for a while. They, like many medical panels, are older, not recently trained, physicians and academics that don't see a lot of real patients. They err on the side of not changing anything for years after the evidence is clear. Their medical opinion is considered a higher of evidence than published research which is why flexible sigmoidoscopy is still included in the guidelines. Any doctor doing that in the US for colon cancer screening might have a hard time defending it before 12 people at the Courthouse in a patient with a right-side colon cancer.

    When you look at the make-up of the USPSTF there are no gastroenterologists and only 3 physicians that have any training in primary care. It's easy for them to believe a patient would prefer a colonoscopy and get one regularly. Apparently economics was not something they considered recommending a $3000 test that has risk of death rather than a $300 stool test with zero risk. Considering the current fee-for-service reimbursement environment perhaps they voted to protect doctor's income from colonoscopies since this test is going to decrease that revenue substantially.

    It's time to be patient here...this test has substantial off-label uses that I will discuss in a different post.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Aren't many of their products petroleum based? How much will profit for Celanese increase due to lower oil prices?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    sec inquiry over!!! no enforcement action!!!

    by rraeus Oct 17, 2014 12:30 PM
    apgarvey apgarvey Oct 20, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    The SEC inquiry was a non-issue to begin with. The mom and pop accounting firm down the street from the factory in Waterbury, Vermont, were simply not prepared for the growth of the company with regard to the Sarbanes-Oxley and IRS rules. They could not count the money fast enough. Read my explanation from 2012 when I wrote exactly why Einhorn was wrong. Now maybe some of his institutional lemmings will stop going over the cliff with him.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought more at $ 140

    by aliceghk Aug 26, 2014 1:48 PM
    apgarvey apgarvey Aug 27, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    But, it is important to know the technology here. Most of the competing electronic medical record (EHR) systems except Cerner are really very old technology. ATHN is certainly lagging in parts of their EHR, e.g. portal technology and patient entered data. But, massive consolidation is occurring in the medical delivery system - look in the number of independent private practices in your town. ACA is not likely to be repealed and single payer won't happen, so private insurance is here to stay. Dealing with insurance is the key to future survival of health care providers as payments decrease. Other than Cerner, few systems rival ATHN in dealing with revenue cycle management. With healthcare as 18% of the economy, leading systems in healthcare information management seem hard to short. Some of the fundamentals become meaningless. The problem with shorts is that they are often gamblers like Einhorn who lack an in depth knowledge of the company or industry trends. Again, study the GMCR chart after 2012 when Einhorn famously shorted it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought more at $ 140

    by aliceghk Aug 26, 2014 1:48 PM
    apgarvey apgarvey Aug 26, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    A reasonable purchase. Remember this stock is still suffering from the David Einhorn effect. Mr. Einhorns' attempts at stock manipulation are opportunities. Institutional lemmings that follow his shallow musings unload in fright, allowing real investors like you to step in and make money. Some shorts are covering ATHN, but the short squeeze will occur a little later in the year as everyone realizes Mr. Einhorn's predictions are wrong again. Study the GMCR chart and Message Board: compare my comments on the short arguments to see how this chart will evolve. All the same macro issues apply...what exactly is the short argument here-people will stop seeing doctors?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Do the folks in Atlanta know more than Einhorn?

    by apgarvey May 13, 2014 8:18 AM
    apgarvey apgarvey May 13, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    LOL. Start with Einhorn's credentials. What does he really know, what does he believe, and what does he guess about? He provides entertainment value, not investment advice. He tricks institutional lemmings that buy his underperforming fund or sell on his pontifications. Portfolio re-balancing by investment managers using computer algorithms to protect their jobs allows true investors to make real money from bluster and buffoonery. Stay long, my friend.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Do the folks in Atlanta know more than Einhorn?

    by apgarvey May 13, 2014 8:18 AM
    apgarvey apgarvey May 13, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    Exactly...these people are no smarter than people on this message board. To quote Peter Lynch..."it's hard to fight the tape."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Is anyone really still short this stock? I still cannot understand the logic. Yes, in 2012 the mom and pop management was not ready for the likes of hedge fund gamblers and stock cheaters (see his UK fine) like Einhorn. Every one of his postulates were proved wrong (see my posts starting when at $58). There is new management now. What is the short argument? Einhorn brought more attention to a good company doing good things. I will join the folks from Atlanta who are obviously long this one.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Disappointed Piece of garbage not going

    by thereplicant2021 Feb 11, 2014 11:39 AM
    apgarvey apgarvey Feb 11, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    Love your attitude. Psychologically it is easier to sell winners than to sell losers...hence, short squeezes are always interesting.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • apgarvey apgarvey Feb 11, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    How long will it take and what will the price be when the shorts all finally cover? How much can you lose if you are short at $60-$80? The short argument never made sense here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Disappointed Piece of garbage not going

    by thereplicant2021 Feb 11, 2014 11:39 AM
    apgarvey apgarvey Feb 11, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    When you buy long and guess wrong, you can lose all of your investment. How does shorting work exactly? How much can you lose?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • apgarvey apgarvey Feb 11, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    100% agree. There are only 448 share holders. All the nervous nellies are out. All of Einhorn's institutional lemmings are out. All the mom and pop insiders who were leveraged are out. Management has money to buy shares. Where is 30% of the float coming from for the shorts to buy?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • apgarvey apgarvey Feb 11, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    Sounds like a short caught in a squeeze. Remember their are only 448 share holders and lots of shares are NOT for sale. The only shares available for shorts to buy are shares that institutions have to sell to re-balance their portfolios.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    All shorts

    by kamaccnn Feb 11, 2014 11:00 AM
    apgarvey apgarvey Feb 11, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    The short argument never made any sense. Is this a textbook short squeeze?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • apgarvey apgarvey Feb 10, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    Is Einhorn still short? Is this an Einhorn institutional lemming?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    GMCR stock is a piece of garbage

    by thereplicant2021 Feb 7, 2014 1:47 PM
    apgarvey apgarvey Feb 8, 2014 7:43 AM Flag

    Money is made in stocks when you buy undervalued equities. The FMV of GMCR was $100 in fall 2012 when David Einhorn took a large short position and then began trash talking it. The UK sanctioned him for stock manipulation the previous year for the same thing. Cautious institutional lemmings who were worried about their job, not profits, listened to his half-truths and innuendos so they sold the stock. There were some mom and pop insiders who leveraged their new wealth and had to sell making the sell-off worse. There were other explanations for all of his arguments. Everything he said proved completely false, but markets sell and think later. It took a while for the market to realize the stock was grossly undervalued at $45. GMCR is a growth company in every sense of the word.

    Sentiment: Buy