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Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF Message Board

arsaxe 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 7, 2016 4:33 PM Member since: Nov 20, 2008
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  • arsaxe arsaxe Jul 7, 2016 4:33 PM Flag

    A few things need to happen in general. Institutional funds should push it there through financial ETF shorting on low expectations for rate hike any time soon, hit to US growth or sharp selloff in US equity markets which is quite expensive compared to global markets. The major risk for Citi investors and shareholders come from macro trading by institutional funds rather than bank itself. The bank is doing good job in managing operations in such environment and maintaining credit and risk profile of the balance sheet. However, on the earnings side the environment is not supportive.

  • The true evils of US financial markets these days are institutional funds not Fed, banks or politicians.

  • Quant funds trading macro are back in full force. Business investors and shareholders are once again being held hostages to institutional fund trading and hedging. As reported by Bloomberg LLC public participation rates in markets are running at historical low. SEC is completely deaf to overwhelming flow of public complaints on it's website. The only way to invest right now is episodic trading.

  • arsaxe by arsaxe Jul 5, 2016 9:10 AM Flag

    Brexit volatility feast seems like over and things are back to normal. The market are once again will be dominated by quant trading on uncertainty and momentum. Stocks will suffer from market quant culture as market levels look high compared to economic fundamentals. In the near to mid term stock prices are most likely to be impacted by momentum direction in the markets.

  • Reply to

    poor dividend increase

    by analyst112 Jul 1, 2016 11:43 AM
    arsaxe arsaxe Jul 1, 2016 3:07 PM Flag

    If you want dividend go and look for high dividend paying company. High dividend is mostly attractive to investors who are not interested in business valuations. Also higher dividend payout is better for valuations above or well above BV. Additionally, businesses that do not see potential for higher growth may choose to increase dividends as alternative to hoarding excess cash balances. In case of Citi I think it is a wise move as stock buyback is better alternative for bank capitalization below book. I would like to see larger stock repurchase plan but maybe management is cautious and knows where to invest capital to improve business operations. I do not see much room for growth in the near term with exception of equity trading. I also hope that with addition of Costco portfolio consumer banking will show at least stable to slight growth in revenue close to end of this year or next. However, given discount to BV I would vote strongly for stock buyback rather than dividend increase.

  • Now come quarter final days of trading, re-balancing and derivative expiration.

  • It is shocking when some message board people are engaged in talking about how bad thins are at Citibank and completely ignoring how things are bad in the market itself. Business investors and corporate shareholders as opposed to market traders and volatility takers should be prepared for: "Equity investors in the U.S. would be wise to stay away until quant managers finish the work that was forced on them by Friday’s volatility...". Read and understand what the market risks are to face rather than individual bank business risk. Eventually as the market forces play out their volatility taking strategies opportunities will emerge but not till that time. Do not listen to all this nonsense from people who are simply market watchers and who do not know much about businesses versus markets.

  • Reply to

    Citi is not a loser

    by arsaxe Jun 3, 2016 6:25 PM
    arsaxe arsaxe Jun 4, 2016 10:13 AM Flag

    Actually I was the last in line. Looked around and saw both of you and c11ray way ahead of me. The only thing I do not understand is with such voluminous God reward why your comments are so worthless and sarcastic with no insight but market history. if you were assigned to handle the Brooklyn Bridge sale, I would really like to know what was the rationale behind such nomination.

  • If for someone Citi is a loser than he should not be in the market. Citi looks like a loser because it trades as the whole market. There is no alpha in the stock because the whole market is driven by electronic trading rather than investor money flow. Electronic trading particularly in mini index products, market index ETFs and related products are all about market beta and market volatility rather than real businesses. In terms of specific business model Citi has made huge progress compared to history but stock price is being driven by market headlines and market trading cash flows which ignore almost completely idiosyncratic risk and business performance. Citi may look like a loser but the true reason is in the market itself not in the Citi's business model.

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