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EV Energy Partners LP Message Board

artist_formerly_known_as_pooch 2040 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 5, 2016 7:26 AM Member since: Jul 14, 2000
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  • Reply to

    activists

    by harehau Jul 2, 2016 1:09 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Jul 5, 2016 7:26 AM Flag

    EPD could never buy WMB because of regulatory issues. They would have to divest a ton of assets to get it past regulators. To buy WMB, EPD would have to sell off large parts of it.
    That's why EPD was never part of the original auction process.

  • Reply to

    activists

    by harehau Jul 2, 2016 1:09 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Jul 3, 2016 8:23 PM Flag

    I'm sure WMB will recover, but it will take some time to unwind those that were playing the merger for those that are investing in the company. I don't think many foresaw this messy sudden ending.

  • Reply to

    activists

    by harehau Jul 2, 2016 1:09 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Jul 3, 2016 7:18 AM Flag

    Kelcy supposedly Bid $170 for TRGP before taking a run at WMB. Obviously everything has declined since then, but it was on his radar. TRGP covers their dividend and isn't heavily hedged ie Oil &NGL price increases go right to the bottom line. Export a lot of propane to Latin America

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Jun 10, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    pretty big jump. should give some good upside when oil resumes upward.
    May 13 9.6 million shares short
    May 31 10.1 million shares short

    6.5% of the float, 5 days to cover at 2.2 mm shrs ADV

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Jun 10, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    Wells Fargo had a good report on NGL's. Big beneficiaries are TRGP, OKS, EPD, and DPM. TRGP being the most exposed, the biggest beneficiary relative to it's size. EPD moves much more in volume but is a vastly bigger entity. Oil, Gas, and the NGL barrel all working in TRGP's favor.

    1 yr ago TRGP was at 90+, and didn't own NGLS and APL assets. This is a much tighter, cleaner structure than back then. Also, keep in mind, before ETE went after WMB, it made a run at TRGP at $150-$170

    It's a good set of assets here and they cover the dividend without having to cut it.

  • Reply to

    Short number down by 7%

    by hrdwkgdog May 24, 2016 12:12 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch May 27, 2016 5:49 AM Flag

    Short interest
    4/29 2.2 million sharea
    5/13 2.3 million shares

    short interest INCREASED 107,000 shrs

    40% of the float
    4 days to cover at 610k adv

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch May 26, 2016 6:51 AM Flag

    Yes. reduces travel times (and cost) for TRGP's export propane. Both EPD and TRGP are maxxed out in propane shipments right now. TRGP has said they expect it to slow some, but to date it hasn't. In other words, TRGP is shipping more propane loads than they forecast. NGL prices have been strong and TRGP is only 20% hedged for NGL. That's bad when prices are falling. Really great when prices are rising. Oil prices are on their forecast price. Nat Gas less. But they are over 60% hedged in these commodities. So in other words, TRGP is tracking ahead of forecast overall.

  • Reply to

    Negative DCF - that's a first

    by prof.williamdyer May 10, 2016 9:29 AM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch May 10, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    since selling, I've completely lost interest in EVEP, but unfortunately their PR's still land in my inbox. Anyone have the short answer for me on the negative DCF??? Walker truly is a SPECIAL individual. Ranks right up there with the Cohens of ATLS. The Cohens being dirty. Walker simply an exceptional moron.

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Apr 11, 2016 1:29 PM Flag

    CHK is a huge WPZ customer after they sold their ACMP midstream to Williams. CHK bankruptcy risk was a huge WPZ risk factor. Last quarter WPZ renegotiated some of it's rates for a larger acreage commitment from CHK. Today CHK had it's revolver renewed and borrowing base redetermination postponed for 1 year. The bankers took bankruptcy off of the table. Huge risk removed for WPZ. Puts the WMB merger in a whole new light too.

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Apr 11, 2016 1:27 PM Flag

    CHK is a huge WPZ customer after they sold their midstream to Williams. CHK bankruptcy risk was a huge WPZ risk factor. Today CHK had it's revolver renewed and borrowing base redetermination postponed for 1 year. The bankers took bankruptcy off of the table. Huge risk removed for WPZ

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Apr 11, 2016 1:25 PM Flag

    CHK is a huge WMB customer and CHK bankruptcy risk was a huge WMB risk factor. Today CHK had it's revolver renewed and borrowing base redetermination postponed for 1 year. Basically the bankers took bankruptcy off of the table. Huge risk removed for WMB.

  • Reply to

    Will the Div be reduced?`

    by giday30 Mar 23, 2016 3:22 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Mar 30, 2016 5:58 AM Flag

    Yesterday Moodys made ratings moves on debt it has been reviewing since the merger. A mixed bag. Some downgrades to NGLS and an upgrade and stable on TRGP's (they are still segregated for ratings purposes). the comments were encouraging for the environment we are in. adequate liquidity and coverage + or - for the next year.

    Targa's SGL-3 rating reflects adequate liquidity through at least early 2017. As of December 31, 2015, TRC had $140.2 million of cash, including $135.4 million of cash at TRP, as well as $1.3 billion available ($280 million of borrowings outstanding and $12.9 million of letters of credit) under the $1.6 billion TRP senior secured revolving credit facility, and $230 million available ($440 million of borrowings outstanding) under the $670 million TRC senior secured revolver. We expect TRC to be breakeven to slightly negative in covering dividends and maintenance spending with operating cash flows because of the expected weaker EBITDA in 2016. TRP will need to use its revolver in order to fund its growth capital projects, which are all expected to start providing cash flow in 2016. However, TRC's $1 billion of combined proceeds from the preferred equity issuance in March 2016 will offset the increased usage of the TRP revolver, as overall consolidated debt levels are likely to be reduced with the proceeds.

    Both TRP and TRC were in compliance with the covenants governing their respective revolving credit facilities. Despite the expected increase in consolidated leverage in 2016 and 2017 from 2015 levels, we expect both Partners and TRC to remain in compliance with covenants into early 2017, although TRP's covenant cushion will decrease while TRC will continue having ample headroom. The TRP revolver requires maintenance of EBITDA to interest expense of at least 2.25x, debt to EBITDA no greater than 5.5x, and senior debt to EBITDA of no greater than 4x (excluding the TRP unsecured notes). TRP's leverage covenant calculations exclude the secured debt at TRC. TRC relies on general partner distributions, and limited partner distributions to service its debt obligations. The TRC revolver requires maintenance of a consolidated debt to EBITDA ratio of no greater than 4.75x, which excludes both TRP debt and EBITDA in calculations for compliance. Secondary liquidity is limited as the majority of the partnership's assets are pledged to the senior secured creditors. The nearest maturity is that of the Partners' revolver, which matures in October 2017. The TRC revolver matures in February 2020.

  • Reply to

    Will the Div be reduced?`

    by giday30 Mar 23, 2016 3:22 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Mar 28, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    The preferred raise was onerous. that's for sure. I think it's a prudent move though in this environment that some companies are raising funds no matter how much it costs because the future may hold even more onerous terms or no terms at all. Think of E&P's that raised when their stock was down 50%. Probably happy they did because it has only gotten worse for them. Generally I am in the "cut the dividend" cam to save the company. Unless they are seeing clear signs of potential stress out their with their customers, I think they hold here,

    Sabine, though is a red herring. Midstreams that are renegotiating are doing so with an eye toward commitments elsewhere for additional acreage. Most E&P's don't have an option to ship elsewhere and a BK doesn't shut in the well, simply changes the name on the check. Shutting in a well makes for a mostly unsaleable asset in a BK. Lenders unable to recoup.

  • Reply to

    Will the Div be reduced?`

    by giday30 Mar 23, 2016 3:22 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Mar 25, 2016 4:11 PM Flag

    Why would they cut? Both NGLS and TRGP covered last quarter and are projected to in the most recent presentation. Ethane and Propane prices have risen significantly in the past month.

  • Reply to

    First Tanker Shipment of Ethane to Europe

    by epholder Mar 22, 2016 12:46 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Mar 23, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    I'm going out on a limb on this one, but I believe LNG tankers run on LNG as the LNG expands during the cruise and either needs to be burned or vented. Use it or lose it. Don't quote me on that though.

  • Reply to

    First Tanker Shipment of Ethane to Europe

    by epholder Mar 22, 2016 12:46 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Mar 23, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    Methane is "regular" natural gas. Ethane has one more atom. Propane has one more atom than ethane. Then comes Butane. Then comes Natural Gasoline. These are all technically "natural gas liquids" It's what "wetgas" gets separated into. Some Ethane can be "rejected" and burned as "regular" natural gas when ethane prices are low. Limited amounts though. The rest are "heavier" liquids. Ethane and propane can be shipped together in a pipe. This is called "Y grade" Ethane and propane are used in plastics manufacture and that's where export is going. From Marcus Hook and from Mt Belvieu. Butane and Natural gasoline get mixed into things such as motor fuels. Butane used in winter gasoline. Natural gasoline a low octane grade of ....gasoline ;-)

    NGL's have been crushed in the past year. crude oil and natural gas prices low. NGL's lower. All 3 are improving in the past month or so.

  • Reply to

    The call

    by lucius.rodin Feb 29, 2016 10:13 AM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Feb 29, 2016 4:15 PM Flag

    They should have been managing for survival 3 quarters ago. The moment they sold UEO, that cash should have been protected like it was lifeblood. Instead they #$%$ away on distributions

  • Reply to

    BUY BACK SHARES!

    by poorfessor3000 Dec 5, 2015 8:02 AM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Dec 7, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    Because the CEO owns an enormous amount of EVEP. His income comes from the distribution. that's why they don't cut. 50 cent distribution is $25 million out the door. It isn't doing anythinging for the unit price, it's simply money wasted. They need to conserve cash and save the company. Buy back shares or sit on it. either way. once it's paid out though, it will cost us tons to re -borrow or issue shares in a secondary to raise funds.

    Can't sell the assets because all of the assets are worthless in this market. Like trying to sell your house when all of your neighbors are being foreclose on. That beutiful house no longer has any value in the market being sold in.

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Nov 19, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    if you lack time.....why are you wasting precious moments of it on a Yahoo messageboard? I post here because i enjoy it and have lots of time on my hands sitting in front of a computer screen.

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Nov 12, 2015 8:00 PM Flag

    and it doesn't have a 50% distribution to pay out. EVEP is being priced for a distribution elimination and later distress sales. This is why EVEP can't sell land. Because the buyers know that sometime very soon, sellers will be puking up their land. No hurry to buy in this market. The sooner EVEP comes clean and admits there will be no distribution, the sooner certainty returns to EVEP.
    I admit, I flushed out all of my EVEP. I own no more. I bought a lot in the teens on the way up. Buying all of the way up to $70. I had one lot bought above $70. Sold much along the way, but had started buying again in the 6's. But this is too much pain and I have zero confidence in EVEP management.
    My hunch is Mercer wanted to cut two quarters ago but Walker would not allow it. Mercer is not that dumb. Walker is. Walker was talking V shaped recovery a year ago.

EVEP
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