Vaccines are out of my area but I've been around long enough to know that trying to predict when the FDA will bring in an AC is an exercise in frustration.
I know no one will believe me (and personally I don’t care if you do or not), but I’ve been on enough FDA panels to know that this request is about labeling not approvability. They’re simply looking for risk groups to be identified in the product label. Sure, the company is inexperienced and screwed up by submitting aggregate data, but if you sell based on this news you are truly a fool.
Geez, you are kidding, aren't you? Welcome to the 21st century. It's all about electronic banking. Close the branches, cut costs, but keep the customers.
This is all BS. DVAX's product portfolio is mostly outside CELG's area of interest. Rather than these lunatic calls for a buyout, why not just appreciate that this a great small company with a vaccine that's a slam dunk for approval and other interesting products in the pipeline?
Correct. If any killer bad news was leaking there's a lot more leverage in far out of the money puts. And everyone is assuming the put transaction was initiated by the buyer. Does anyone know whether it was done at the bid or at the asked? Maybe it was a put SELLER trying to capture the premium or buy the stock on the cheap.
1. 2000 puts = 200,000 shares. Clearly an institution hedging $5,000,000 worth of stock. The size of the option transaction was so out of whack to previous option activity that it would be a red flag to the SEC if someone was making a spec bet based on “inside info”.
2. Anyone have access to open interest in puts that expired last week? This could have been an institution rolling over their hedge.
3. Apparently a lot of retail investors got shaken out of their positions today based on that put trade. Stock volume was mostly many small trades of a few thousand shares each. Not much liquidity in the market on a holiday week and it doesn’t take much to move a volatile stock like DVAX on a day like this.
4. No trend lines were broken and overall direction is still up.
You are correct. It is basically meaningless. Overall survival and disease-free survival are the key and will not be reported until next year. They do not necessarily correlate with progression-free survival.