I've been burned too many times chasing the dividend only to lose on the stock price. Not worth the risk in my opinion.
I have been on the sidelines and will probably remain there for the foreseeable future until there is more clarity post BG merger and the dividend.
My target price was $36 when oil was in the 40's so $33 is not unreasonable given a prediction of 25 for oil, the BG merger, and the possibility of Iran coming online.
I am surprised that BG.L isn't much higher if the deal is a sure thing as initial proposed.
I had it at 36 based on the earnings and a PE of 9. For some reason yahoo shows earnings of 0.51/sh for the year and a PE of 88. Don't think that is correct.
I had sent my buy point around $36 but that was before the BG deal. Needless to say I have been out for a long time. There was money to be made trading but I just decided to play a safer contrarian beat. Probably could have made money either way but much more never racking trying the oil play and less predictable. Also the contrarian valuation appear better to me. Basically buying some airline stocks and playing the fuel savings.
The previous chairman was Voser who was Swiss. He was the one that totally reorganized Shell. But the old saying is generally true. If you ain't Dutch you ain't much.