"stay out of these zombie rig companies altogether as they are all dead-walking their way to bankruptcy"
It sure seems that way. It looks as if the land based, non-fracking, low cost producers around the world are going to be able to handle the supply for quite a while, especially with Iran and Iraq bumping up production. As the contracts some producers have in hand to sell oil at much higher prices than spot expire, more and more frackers and UDW producers will falter. It is a turn around that is going to end up killing many companies thought to be bullet proof. Good to see you back to your original ID. I have to say that you were correct in your assessments but I'm willing to bet even you are surprised by the breadth and depth of the carnage in both shipping and UDW drilling. It's basically a depression for the industries and could spread to banks and will take out many shipbuilders as they have to beg for any new orders.
Why? They all are getting built regardless of the attempt at cancellation which doesn't happen easily or the delay of delivery.
Oil looks like it will fall under $40 again. Since SDRL is joined at the hip with the price of oil, mid to low $5 range might be expected.
He is seldom in a horrible situation. Investors are the ones in the horrible situations. The related party transactions make him millions every month. His latest purchase of shares of $53 million were easily offset by his management fees over a pretty short time. Much of DRYS losses are attributable to his fees for the many things for which he charges DRYS. He even gets commissions selling DRYS ships to himself. But it has always been this way. Since inception. Even before. Alpha Shippings default now seems to be a paltry thing compared to DRYS, looking back.
It is way more than fifty. You aren't counting his many other ID's. Five or six that he uses that look like my ID.
of about $900 million. They have most of the shares, 95%?, pledged on the debt to ABN Amro which requires three times coverage using the VWAP of ORIG. With ORIG at $2.92 a share, the coverage isn't there, not even close anymore and DRYS only has 2 or 3 million shares left to pledge. Things looking pretty grim.
Never seen so much crazy from one individual. What sort of revenge do you think this moron thinks he is getting from acting like a child for hours a day, for weeks on end, just because he got humiliated on a message board a long time ago?
If you had invested $1 million at inception, you'd have $11.43 left.
But there isn't. The rig counts are down 50% and production is flat world wide. What that seems to imply is that there is simply plenty of oil in many places and that any rise in price can be met with an increase in production nearly at the drop of a hat.
Do the quarterly earnings really matter? They reflect old contracts that will expire in short order. What matters is what they see going forward. If they reveal a bunch of renegotiated contracts with lower day rates just to extend them a few more months, they are basically admitting they don't see any rebound for a couple of years yet to come. And in that time frame, they have some newbuilds to pay for and which need contracts.
According to Compass Maritime's latest weekly report, there are 57 VLCC's, the kind you discuss which carry 2 million barrels, on order for 2016. There are 24 on order for the balance of 2015. There are 5 Suezmaxes on the way this year, still, and 35 coming next year. Aframaxes, which carry about 500k bbl, look to add 41 still this year and 52 next.
It was thought in 2014, that the scrapping of mid-sized tankers, Suezies and Afras, that there would be no net fleet growth in 2015/16, however, the ordering intensified as slots became available and prices for new tankers came down some and some owners converted bulker orders and vessels into tankers. So it looks like a point or so of growth of the fleet is likely for both classes.
VLCCs are in for a little rougher time as the growth of that fleet will be in the neighborhood of 2.5% for 2015 when all is said and done and 4.5% for 2016. Rates will likely come down next year.