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Ancestry.com Inc. Message Board

audphil78 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 26, 2016 12:47 AM Member since: Feb 21, 2007
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  • I think that Q1 will be the last "meh" quarter for EVOL and much of their new billings and backlog will start to kick in more heavily in Q2 and throughout the year. I look for about $8mm in revenue with $1.3mm in "operating income". That will be before at $1-$1.1 "one time" restructuring charge. I expect an $.11 dividend to be declared payable before June 1.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Projection for Q1

    by audphil78 May 2, 2016 11:05 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 May 3, 2016 9:47 PM Flag

    You were on the mark and I was too optimistic. That being said, I don't see the bookings and backlog translating to revenue as rapidly as I expected EVEN WITH THE "service" model than the one-time fee. I also find it curious that they put the payment date as July 1, which implies to me that they are trying to meet certain covenants for June 30 cash, working capital, current assets, ratios etc. Last year the dividend was pad around June 1. Just a subtle, but perhaps meaningful tipoff.

  • Reply to

    Stock green all day til last few minutes

    by hweb2 May 4, 2016 5:34 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 May 5, 2016 3:11 AM Flag

    I am less sanguine than you are shorter-term. I love the company for its simplicity, transparency and the fact that they are extremely shareholder-friendly. It doesn't hurt that even in a #$%$ quarter, and taking a huge "one-time" expense, they still make money the old fashioned way (GAAP). However, I was less than impressed with the conference call. Thekkathala even made an ugly math error when describing the "service" model relative to the "one-time" sale model, and the only analyst asked a generalized industry question. I am also not very excited about Q2 and Q3 this year and feel that it may take till Q4 and then 2017 for EVOL to show its enormous operating leverage (with a 78% gross margin and taking out a huge amount of fixed expense). I believe the stock is "dead money", but as you pointed out, we do get paid quite well to wait. I could see the stock drifting back closer to $5 as Q2 results approach. I already have too large a position in this relatively illiquid stock, so while I think that $5.60 is an attractive buying price, it would take a lower price to entice me to add more, just based on overall safety and diversification for my portfolio. Also, I am not sure that a microcap like this can gain much "sponsorship" and still believe that the future gains in this stock will be based on increasing dividends as they gain traction in 2017 and the possibility that someone like a Synchronoss or a RedKnee will find them attractive for their customer relationships and the fact that with the cash availability that they have, a profitable acquisition would be accretive (by definition, since cash is earning close to zero right now.)

  • Reply to

    Stock green all day til last few minutes

    by hweb2 May 4, 2016 5:34 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 May 6, 2016 1:29 AM Flag

    I agree that his background would lead one to think he will certainly keep an acquisition of the company on the table; however, his compensation package (and all EVOL compensation packages are VERY reasonable compared to most other companies) does not skew heavily towards incenting him to this result. If I were the BOD I would give him 300,000 or 400,000 options at $7 or $8 that vest over 6 years, but vest immediately upon a "change of control" transaction. That would certainly light a fire under him towards being acquired at a good price.

  • Reply to

    QLTI IS ABOUT TOO WAKE UP!!

    by bryor.taber May 17, 2016 11:08 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 May 20, 2016 12:38 PM Flag

    Are you kidding? You must be a bagholder.

  • Reply to

    EQUITY SECURITY HOLDERS COMMITTEE

    by ward_mike May 20, 2016 1:08 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 May 21, 2016 12:02 AM Flag

    Sadly you have aroused great hope with your MISunderstanding of what happens in bankruptcy court. Dur to the letters sent to the court by Ditman, Gothal, Smolin (and perhaps more in the future) and given that Gothal attached a list of shareholders accounting for 8+mm shares, the judge (in order to be complete and fair) has ordered a hearing at which the creditors can present information as to why this would be a waste of the "estate"'s assets. You popped a Viagra and shot your load a bit prematurely. Means nothing and is completely procedural, as the judge would be remiss if he did not do this. If the creditors demonstrate a preponderance of evidence that the formation of an equity committee would waste assets for the creditors then it will not happen. If the judge feels that the creditors have NOT presented a convincing argument, then it there will be a committee formed. That would be the time to at least have more hope than now. Even then it is unlikely that the current shareholders will share in the fruits of the "new" Sun Edison when it emerges from Chapter 11.

  • Reply to

    Why did the shorts cover ?

    by darpanshree May 25, 2016 12:25 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 May 25, 2016 10:44 PM Flag

    You don't have a clue. Very few people would short at $.34 because the collateral required to make that short, combined with limited availability of shares meant that even if it went to zero in a year it would not be a good investment. What you saw at $.34 and those kinds of prices were longs who read the company's announcements and understood they were heading to Chapter 11 and that it would mean the shares would ultimately be a zero, so they just sold.

  • I think the market will reward NEW customers more than enhanced or continued relationships with existing customers. JMHO

  • Reply to

    ir

    by amishkegger May 26, 2016 3:51 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 May 27, 2016 5:52 AM Flag

    They already declared the dividend based on the last financial release. It is payable 7/1 to shareholders of record 6/3, which means it goes ex-dividend on 6/1. FYI

  • Reply to

    Another "Stretch" PR this Morning IMO

    by pa1702 Jun 16, 2016 9:14 AM
    audphil78 audphil78 Jun 17, 2016 1:00 AM Flag

    Yes, I agree; I would much rather see future financial statements with increasing free cash flows and no PRs!!

  • Reply to

    New day for SUNE - Chatila gone

    by lorcan458 Jun 22, 2016 4:28 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Jun 23, 2016 10:49 PM Flag

    John Dubel, now head of SunEdison has served as "Chief Restructuring Officer" of the following companies:

    1.) Acterna-common stock cancelled 2003

    2.) Anchor Glass Container-common stock cancelled 2006

  • audphil78 audphil78 Jun 23, 2016 10:52 PM Flag

    That is effectively "worthless"

  • audphil78 audphil78 Jun 25, 2016 2:56 AM Flag

    Sure, encourage bagholders to hang on with a variety of arguments... and then see if you can get some pumpers going to swing-trade this??

  • Reply to

    Looking to Possibly Get In

    by bjmcd92 Jun 25, 2016 9:55 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Jun 26, 2016 12:47 AM Flag

    The last two companies the CEO "restructured" wound up cancelling the stock of existing shareholders when they finally emerged from Chapter 11.