Well considering I've been on this board and long longer than most I'll let you do your DD and come to a logical conclusion. But I know you won't. Anyway, this is one one the worst positions I've had and at some point you have to realize you're wrong....the question I am trying to figure out is how wrong am I....
Hey, Thank you for your reply some time ago. I read through all that you wrote and have given it much consideration. I also saw that you have been getting bashed for the stance that you have....so be it. I have been getting bashed owning this stock on the long term and the competitor in me doesn't want to sell what I consider a winner long term at a loss....but....you gave me some food for thought. At the very least, I do feel more informed for your contribution. For that I thank you. I don't know where I will go with this position but I do think I am going to get some paid for papers before I decide. This one has me baffled for some reason....B
OK- I'll have an informed discussion...but I'm an adult, so if you get sensitive and start name calling I will disregard you and the conversation. I like talking to shorts as I have said in the past b/c I find it tempers my enthusiasm about my positions and forces me to be critical which keeps me on my toes. I hope you are the type of short who can actually have a conversation. So here goes...there are 2 points that I have read that you are holding onto strongly, 1- POT's debt....of which 75% is LT and not much concern at this time but I will say that I am watching it closely as you appear to be. I don't like the trends that I have been seeing lately BUT I am encouraged by the dividend cut (to be honest, I wouldn't mind if it were cut more). The way I see it, the company didn't cut by more b/c they didn't feel they needed to....they still have 'bullets in the chamber' if they need to going forward though. 2- The supply coming online....you talk about all the supply coming on but you aren't discussing any of the mines that are being retired. I think you need to consider this as the companies that are doing the build outs aren't doing so naively. They are doing so out of necessity. Also, as you know, POT prices worldwide are down to historical norms but are prices below the 'new' norms for all commodities. People who bring up the 'old school' pricing norms irritate me...as if any of us are going to say that our homes are going to sell for what they would have in the mid 1990s, or even mid 2000s for that matter. Anyway, I think that demand speaks for increase supply in this case as the one thing that I do know is that mines are retiring and the world population is increasing....the question I have is, is the build out of new mines and expansions happening fast enough???? I'm not saying POT is going back to the 30s any time soon but I wouldn't be surprised if it tested 27 in the next few months. Thoughts? B
No comfort! It makes me sad to think that this is the best we could do. Our system for electing officials is broken at best, and at worst will be the demise of the country at some point in the future. The reason Trump is doing so well is because people have absolutely zero confidence in the politicians in Washington.
The stock is quality b/c the company is growing and legit....there is fear in the US investor with regard to China b/c "China is slowing"....I wish the US could grow the way China is slowing....anyway, the way the stock has been acting lately I don't know that I would be trading it b/c it would be straight up gambling. That said, I own it long, have for a long time and I do have a little trimming I would like to do if and when the stock bobs up to 200/sh or so during the summer months. Either way, I feel confident that this company is good for the long run....If it were ever to get a legit PE, I'd be in retirement mode overnight.....one can hope!
I fairness, I just looked....my 'trade' buy the day before the ER was 186.50 (not 178 as I was thinking in the above post)....I was planning to hold it until it tested the 215-218/sh area as was my target at the time. As a result, I will sell the 186 shares when/if the stock tests the 200-201 area which was the high on the day after earnings. At that time, there is a good chance I will dump the 162 shares as well....it depends on RSI the day it happens. Time will tell....but I do think this stock has 300/sh written all over it. I just don't want to be dependent on this 1 position or my judgement on what I think will happen to the stock. B
First, I am not trying to rub anything in....only trying to see how you, as a short, play these stocks and then compare to the way I, as a long, go about it....which varies from many. So, how long will you hold your short position based on the fact that it seems the market has shaken off the 'student scandal' at the moment? I will openly say that I bought more as the stock went down and I am in the process of selling all positions started, other than the lowest, as they move through those levels (the gains aren't huge on those smaller positions as I never intended on increasing my overall position size by any amount other than the 1 initial by size....but I do try to get a 2-3% percent for the risk taken). In total, the only 2 positions outside of my core which is HEAVILY green is at 162 and 178 (i think....i gotta double check) from this latest down shoot. I initially bought before earnings on a hunch (I posted it here so you can check). I bought 3 other times and have sold out of the 2 middle buys for modest gains. With the remainder of the 2 I will likely sell the 1st 178/sh buy later today if I am correct about the 178 # and keep only the 162.....this is where it gets interesting, I already have the gains that I wanted so I have to make the decision to add to my core position with the buy at 162 or just take the gains and buy another stock in my portfolio with this 'trading' money. Do you as a short approach it the same way? Is your conviction against the company strong or is it the situation you think will affect the stock? Do you add to this short for reasons similar (but opposite) the one's that I used? Just curious b/c I think we learn the most from those who look at the same things differently. Thanks