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Panera Bread Company Message Board

b_hesford2000 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2016 3:18 PM Member since: Jan 3, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Onewaytomars4....

    by b_hesford2000 Jun 20, 2016 11:03 PM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Jun 21, 2016 3:18 PM Flag

    Well considering I've been on this board and long longer than most I'll let you do your DD and come to a logical conclusion. But I know you won't. Anyway, this is one one the worst positions I've had and at some point you have to realize you're wrong....the question I am trying to figure out is how wrong am I....

  • b_hesford2000 by b_hesford2000 Jun 20, 2016 11:03 PM Flag

    Hey, Thank you for your reply some time ago. I read through all that you wrote and have given it much consideration. I also saw that you have been getting bashed for the stance that you have....so be it. I have been getting bashed owning this stock on the long term and the competitor in me doesn't want to sell what I consider a winner long term at a loss....but....you gave me some food for thought. At the very least, I do feel more informed for your contribution. For that I thank you. I don't know where I will go with this position but I do think I am going to get some paid for papers before I decide. This one has me baffled for some reason....B

  • b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Jun 6, 2016 10:14 PM Flag

    OK- I'll have an informed discussion...but I'm an adult, so if you get sensitive and start name calling I will disregard you and the conversation. I like talking to shorts as I have said in the past b/c I find it tempers my enthusiasm about my positions and forces me to be critical which keeps me on my toes. I hope you are the type of short who can actually have a conversation. So here goes...there are 2 points that I have read that you are holding onto strongly, 1- POT's debt....of which 75% is LT and not much concern at this time but I will say that I am watching it closely as you appear to be. I don't like the trends that I have been seeing lately BUT I am encouraged by the dividend cut (to be honest, I wouldn't mind if it were cut more). The way I see it, the company didn't cut by more b/c they didn't feel they needed to....they still have 'bullets in the chamber' if they need to going forward though. 2- The supply coming online....you talk about all the supply coming on but you aren't discussing any of the mines that are being retired. I think you need to consider this as the companies that are doing the build outs aren't doing so naively. They are doing so out of necessity. Also, as you know, POT prices worldwide are down to historical norms but are prices below the 'new' norms for all commodities. People who bring up the 'old school' pricing norms irritate me...as if any of us are going to say that our homes are going to sell for what they would have in the mid 1990s, or even mid 2000s for that matter. Anyway, I think that demand speaks for increase supply in this case as the one thing that I do know is that mines are retiring and the world population is increasing....the question I have is, is the build out of new mines and expansions happening fast enough???? I'm not saying POT is going back to the 30s any time soon but I wouldn't be surprised if it tested 27 in the next few months. Thoughts? B

  • b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Jun 4, 2016 8:08 PM Flag

    No comfort! It makes me sad to think that this is the best we could do. Our system for electing officials is broken at best, and at worst will be the demise of the country at some point in the future. The reason Trump is doing so well is because people have absolutely zero confidence in the politicians in Washington.

PNRA
217.15-0.56(-0.26%)Aug 31 4:00 PMEDT