Well considering I've been on this board and long longer than most I'll let you do your DD and come to a logical conclusion. But I know you won't. Anyway, this is one one the worst positions I've had and at some point you have to realize you're wrong....the question I am trying to figure out is how wrong am I....
Hey, Thank you for your reply some time ago. I read through all that you wrote and have given it much consideration. I also saw that you have been getting bashed for the stance that you have....so be it. I have been getting bashed owning this stock on the long term and the competitor in me doesn't want to sell what I consider a winner long term at a loss....but....you gave me some food for thought. At the very least, I do feel more informed for your contribution. For that I thank you. I don't know where I will go with this position but I do think I am going to get some paid for papers before I decide. This one has me baffled for some reason....B
OK- I'll have an informed discussion...but I'm an adult, so if you get sensitive and start name calling I will disregard you and the conversation. I like talking to shorts as I have said in the past b/c I find it tempers my enthusiasm about my positions and forces me to be critical which keeps me on my toes. I hope you are the type of short who can actually have a conversation. So here goes...there are 2 points that I have read that you are holding onto strongly, 1- POT's debt....of which 75% is LT and not much concern at this time but I will say that I am watching it closely as you appear to be. I don't like the trends that I have been seeing lately BUT I am encouraged by the dividend cut (to be honest, I wouldn't mind if it were cut more). The way I see it, the company didn't cut by more b/c they didn't feel they needed to....they still have 'bullets in the chamber' if they need to going forward though. 2- The supply coming online....you talk about all the supply coming on but you aren't discussing any of the mines that are being retired. I think you need to consider this as the companies that are doing the build outs aren't doing so naively. They are doing so out of necessity. Also, as you know, POT prices worldwide are down to historical norms but are prices below the 'new' norms for all commodities. People who bring up the 'old school' pricing norms irritate me...as if any of us are going to say that our homes are going to sell for what they would have in the mid 1990s, or even mid 2000s for that matter. Anyway, I think that demand speaks for increase supply in this case as the one thing that I do know is that mines are retiring and the world population is increasing....the question I have is, is the build out of new mines and expansions happening fast enough???? I'm not saying POT is going back to the 30s any time soon but I wouldn't be surprised if it tested 27 in the next few months. Thoughts? B
No comfort! It makes me sad to think that this is the best we could do. Our system for electing officials is broken at best, and at worst will be the demise of the country at some point in the future. The reason Trump is doing so well is because people have absolutely zero confidence in the politicians in Washington.
The stock is quality b/c the company is growing and legit....there is fear in the US investor with regard to China b/c "China is slowing"....I wish the US could grow the way China is slowing....anyway, the way the stock has been acting lately I don't know that I would be trading it b/c it would be straight up gambling. That said, I own it long, have for a long time and I do have a little trimming I would like to do if and when the stock bobs up to 200/sh or so during the summer months. Either way, I feel confident that this company is good for the long run....If it were ever to get a legit PE, I'd be in retirement mode overnight.....one can hope!
I fairness, I just looked....my 'trade' buy the day before the ER was 186.50 (not 178 as I was thinking in the above post)....I was planning to hold it until it tested the 215-218/sh area as was my target at the time. As a result, I will sell the 186 shares when/if the stock tests the 200-201 area which was the high on the day after earnings. At that time, there is a good chance I will dump the 162 shares as well....it depends on RSI the day it happens. Time will tell....but I do think this stock has 300/sh written all over it. I just don't want to be dependent on this 1 position or my judgement on what I think will happen to the stock. B
First, I am not trying to rub anything in....only trying to see how you, as a short, play these stocks and then compare to the way I, as a long, go about it....which varies from many. So, how long will you hold your short position based on the fact that it seems the market has shaken off the 'student scandal' at the moment? I will openly say that I bought more as the stock went down and I am in the process of selling all positions started, other than the lowest, as they move through those levels (the gains aren't huge on those smaller positions as I never intended on increasing my overall position size by any amount other than the 1 initial by size....but I do try to get a 2-3% percent for the risk taken). In total, the only 2 positions outside of my core which is HEAVILY green is at 162 and 178 (i think....i gotta double check) from this latest down shoot. I initially bought before earnings on a hunch (I posted it here so you can check). I bought 3 other times and have sold out of the 2 middle buys for modest gains. With the remainder of the 2 I will likely sell the 1st 178/sh buy later today if I am correct about the 178 # and keep only the 162.....this is where it gets interesting, I already have the gains that I wanted so I have to make the decision to add to my core position with the buy at 162 or just take the gains and buy another stock in my portfolio with this 'trading' money. Do you as a short approach it the same way? Is your conviction against the company strong or is it the situation you think will affect the stock? Do you add to this short for reasons similar (but opposite) the one's that I used? Just curious b/c I think we learn the most from those who look at the same things differently. Thanks
Collapses???? They own the US debt....the US literally can't let them collapse. I hope you have more than that. China has a middle class that is growing by thousands a day and those people are using computers and those computers are typing your favorite acronym...B I D U....and those people are learning. What are they learning? They are learning that they like learning.....that is the problem that shorts have here....people like learning!!!!
Keep shorting....better yet, tell us when you cover. I am WAY up on BIDU, you can look how far back I go....I would say that there is a really good opportunity being created by all this 'weird' noise that is effecting the stock. I mean really....is UBER going to go under if one of its drivers gets into a deadly accident??? NO, so BIDU supplies info to people and when people use it incorrectly it's BIDU's fault, laughable, and to think that people in China think differently about it is disrespectful of the intelligent people there. Also, the economic data there....you may want to do your research on how/what GOOG did while the US was in its economic catastrophe. Good Luck, B
I don't know....I'm a bit stumped here. I added before earnings on a hunch....was right....and then the scandal. I think the stock is going to consolidate this level....I do think that there is a TON of upside here (200B CAP easy) but I guess I am a bit surprised that it is taking this long for the rest of the market to see it as well. Time will tell, perhaps I'm wrong....
Just looking at the charts, and they never seem to lie, the stock is at a point where there is going to be a breakout or the share price will be pressed lower. This is not going to be a 'boring' stock over the next quarter. My question is, using options which I am no expert, if this is my thesis....how can I best capitalize on the movement in either direction? Please, only option trader responses only. Thank you, B
As long as the Fed doesn't plan on raising the rates...this company will remain a cash cow....even when the rates do change, they are going to do so slowly....NYMT is a good place to park money. It may not return the same %s from year to year but if managed well the value of the enterprise will not materially change. That makes this a winner over the long haul. Just my 2 cents, B (a buyer every time we go under 5/sh)
this was just what the stock ordered. I bought some more today b/c I personally think that when all the selling is done....and lets face it, there was a gap down but then it was flat for the rest of the day...not a lot of downside conviction there. I expect that there are many weaker hands that are giving up there shares b/c of the headline risk and going elsewhere. The stock gets to cool off for a bit so there will be follow though with a push through the resistance level which if you look at any chart is obvious...but the 2 year makes it look the best, especially when you take a look at the RSI along with it. I'm by no means comfortable with the headline, but for the sake of the stock's technicals, if/when this blows over (and I do think it will but I'm no expert in Chinese culture) the stock will be ready to surge. Time will tell I guess.....B
Abba...I must say that I am disappointed to hear you so down on POT. With that said, I appreciate the honest opinion. I am still holding my shares and currently am considering adding to the position for the 5% dividend which I personally think will be safe. I know that isn't exactly the most popular opinion there but I feel OK with it. Ultimately, your post talks of all the competition that will be coming on-line over the next handful of years which will work against POT...and I agree. BUT, lets remember, the population is growing much faster than is POTs competition and to the same point, the standard of living worldwide is going up....I think POT is a coiled spring of a stock. I don't expect anything fast but, I will be adding....I would like to bring my average down to below 19/sh....thoughts?
Nice!!! Beating the Q2 estimate is huge!!! Hopefully we will get this thing testing that high around 250#$%$ some point this year....
This isn't BIDU related, this is a market wide sell-off under way. WOW....breathtaking. I believe it is likely end of day fears regarding the BOJ news this morning. I'm actually going to nibble at the close b/c I do think the report will positive and I am hoping to floats up when sound minds take over tomorrow. GL all, B