With 7500 units under $3.00 plus A &B pfd at $15 & 16, all i really care about is Dcf. Yes, I want to know the financing is being addressed, and it sounds like it is. But I'm most concerned about maintaining the 13% return on what I currently own. 5X coverage looks pretty good right now...plus the upside potential of a distribution increase in the future. GLTA
If you believe that MWE will trade higher after a no vote you've not looked at MLP's in General. I like MWE, have owned it off and on 8 times in the last 4 years and always made money. But the market has changed. My 400 shares of MWE is small compared to my recent purchases of epd and etp so I'm not concerned about a no vote, but I still think this merger, and the synergies with a well healed sponsor are the way to go.
JMHO, but the deal will go thru.
should be a large offering. If the price is low enough, I'll buy back in for the 7th time. Always done well in MEMP.
Are these, the .annual distro of $.40 equals a 4X coverage...so they say. The distro was $2.13. So $1.60 is the BEST they could pay IF they turn things around. With so many quality MLP's out there, why take less than 3% from a underperforming mess like this? Learn from the propane and coal MLP's...buy something else.
Btw, while I haven't owned this since Merrill put a sale on it, in 9 trades of bwp I was lucky to make money each time in the past...so I'm not bashing just for the heck of it. IF they fix it, I'll be back in. Good investing.
slow distro growth, plus 2 to 3 drop downs requiring 2nds...this isn't going anywhere for a while. However, by the end of 2014 it might start showing some growth. JMHO
From Merrill Lynch
"A full quarter of results from the acquired assets should help DCF coverage to recover to ~1.36x in 4Q13 and set MEMP up for a strong F2014. Management reiterated its 2014 guidance of $298-306mm adjusted EBITDA and 1.15x-1.25x DCF coverage. We model no distribution growth through 2Q14 and expect distributions per unit to increase ~5% in 2014 (YoY), even taking into account IDRs."
Merrill believes EROC won't cut distro...2H13 resolves many of 1H issues, and expects 2014 and 2015 to support 1.0 coverage and modest distro growth. Take it with as many grains of salt as you wish.
Fear. You know they want/need to get their credit metrics in line, but people are afraid to invest and get slammed with a 2nd...me included. With a 2nd out of the way, I think this could fly...I'd be back in for a couple thousand shares. The only other option is to hold on until the next earning cycle and hope for really strong cash flow coverage to drive the price up. But, until the 2nd hits there's a cap on the price people are willing to pay. JMHO
No cash and limited available borrowing. CS hurt them with the downgrade...maybe they won't be an underwriter. However, at the right price I'm a buyer...although the .95x coverage is an issue.
At 18.74, I.'m think of jumping back in before the EX-D. My reason is that with the shares at $18 tomorrow, they won't do a 2nd below $18 with the discount...so the shares will need to run up. It might be worth another 4-5% on the price. I realize you Have to be watchful, but the risk reward seems fair. Any thoughts on the logic / illogic of this?
MMLP. Recent acquisition should boast dcf coverage to 1.44 from 1.06. Could add $2 to current $22 price target. current Yld 10.35% on $2.05 distro. And thank you GS for the LINE upgrade!