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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

ballen2123 23 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 11, 2016 10:35 PM Member since: Aug 21, 2010
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  • Reply to

    After hours trading

    by wedbush80 Mar 11, 2016 7:57 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Mar 11, 2016 10:35 PM Flag

    Yes the price is above the two moving averages but this is greater showing in the strength of the stock and investors evaluation of value

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    After hours trading

    by wedbush80 Mar 11, 2016 7:57 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Mar 11, 2016 8:11 PM Flag

    No news but the 50 day moving average is closing in on the 200 day moving average with a large short interest out there and the fact that the stock is trading at extreme discount to book value things could get ugly for shorts that are holding out for what I am seeing is loses are not going to be bad for insurers it looks like Puerto Rico is shielding some insurers because of there need to gain market access to credit markets after restructuring Non insured debt could take massive losses lesson learned across municipal market insure your bonds

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Mar 9, 2016 9:18 PM Flag

    I understand what was said during conference call but like management states an extra ordinary dividend is possible look at capital ratios and also when Puerto Rico resolved there will be an rate increase from S&P to A rating MBI will be on the same playing field as AGO let see how the events play out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock Buyback

    by ballen2123 Mar 1, 2016 4:38 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Mar 1, 2016 8:31 PM Flag

    No I didn't get to that yet. They will buyback heavy anything under 7.60. I'm thinking more good news is on the horizon as puerto rico is resolved which will put the brakes on buybacks as the price moves up significantly. Thats probably why they expect the buyback to be less aggressive. At these prices they still will be heavy buyers. Not worried about Zohar II that is MBI Corp so it is separate from MBI inc. Remember it is fear that has allowed mbi management to keep buying back at extreme discounts to book value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Mar 1, 2016 4:38 PM Flag

    The new $100 million is in place as i stated on January 23rd. This $100 million will be bought back in a much more aggressive manner compared to the last 100 mil. imo There is $296 million in the tax escrow account that can be moved up to the holding company in the way of an extraordinary dividend. Look to see another $100 million buyback not to far out in the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Padilla Clown

    by vascular08 Jan 23, 2016 5:36 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Jan 23, 2016 10:42 PM Flag

    That is what i'm thinking it will be resolved by Feb. 12. Prepa has the best deal they can get if the legislature doesn't pass the Prepa revitalization act that will stop investment into the new gas terminal and new gas power plants. Even if Prepa gets bankruptcy there is already a restructuring agreement on the table.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Padilla Clown

    by vascular08 Jan 23, 2016 5:36 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Jan 23, 2016 9:03 PM Flag

    A deadline is a deadline, the legislature is stalling they want bankruptcy but they will never get it maybe going forward but not on existing contracts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Jan 23, 2016 11:54 AM Flag

    New stock buyback of a 100 million is the works as money is being moved to the holding company this month. Shares outstanding should be at 138 million next buyback could bring it down to 123 million.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Market Cap

    by vascular08 Dec 8, 2015 7:03 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 8, 2015 9:24 PM Flag

    The total exposure across puerto rico is down to 3.865 billion after the 155 million cancellation from HTA and the 267 million payment from the GDB. If you use the 15% haircut that the adhoc group already agreed to and apply it to all of MBIA exposure in Puerto rico you come up with 580 million in losses That still leaves us with 3.2 billion in book value. The losses will come in at a lot less than that and mbia will probably end up insuring more bonds at a very profitable rate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey dell-stk!

    by fredmundi Dec 3, 2015 2:32 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 5, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Puerto rico will not need bankruptcy protection for prepa it needs it for all the other authorities Mbi is in the clear prepa deal goes through puerto rico needs the new power plants and the bond insurers are going to save prepa by providing the insurance on bonds needed to keep prepa's recovery going. Mbi exposure is down to roughly 550 million for HTA with only 11% due in the next 5 years. Prepa and GO are what matter for mbi. The governor is solving that problem by signing Puerto rico revitalization act just needs to pass legislature on Monday special session and the claw back of revenues to pay GO bonds.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good news / Bad news

    by byebyecash Dec 3, 2015 12:40 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 5, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    It looks like the governor is looking for the legislature to pass the Puerto rico revitalization act Monday. As long as no big changes are made the prepa deal will go through before Thursday. Puerto rico needs outside capital and without the monolines that is impossible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SCOTUS will hear the PR restructuring law case.

    by byebyecash Dec 4, 2015 3:34 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 4, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    I would agree dell if you look through the exposure over the next 5 years AGO is worse off by far in terms of possible losses because of the claw backs from various government agencies

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Nov 22, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    Top 30 holders hold 139.5 million shares and 7 million held by insiders as of September 30 Only 153 million outstanding and 13 million possibly bought back at 7 dollars a share things could get squeezed here soon with fewer and fewer holders Large put volume being bought as a hedge to long stock holdings as institutional investors bet on a spike in the price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Puerto Rico default

    by byebyecash Nov 13, 2015 11:44 AM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Nov 14, 2015 1:12 AM Flag

    Round that is fine but im not worried on transportation bonds page 15 shows that only 11.4% are coming due in the next five years and for the GDB bonds due december 1 Mbia exposure is 267 million but the payment due is 354 million like moodys stated GDB is likly to default on some of that Mbia is hold the more secure GO bonds They will pay the 267 and default on the rest

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Puerto Rico default

    by byebyecash Nov 13, 2015 11:44 AM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Nov 13, 2015 8:54 PM Flag

    900 million for highway bonds 300 million GDB bonds you might want to read the report on mbia's home page called puerto rico perspective has insured exposure accurate numbers

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock buyback?

    by ballen2123 Sep 12, 2015 1:33 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Oct 28, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    Ok Moron Centrica once they finish this 100 million stock buyback they will issue another 100 million as more money gets moved from the tax escrow account in January to the holding company I know you can't do the math idiot

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 22.3 million

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock buyback?

    by ballen2123 Sep 12, 2015 1:33 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Sep 15, 2015 7:54 PM Flag

    Is there a timeline or date on a resolution?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock buyback?

    by ballen2123 Sep 12, 2015 1:33 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Sep 15, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    I would be shocked if they told me anything of substance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Sep 12, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    Can management implement a 200 million stock buyback? At $7 it would buyback 28 million bring the share count down to 125 million this would be the best investment for management making book value increase to a level that would have to drive price. The management team stands to gain big. How can they come up with the capital to buyback the shares?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

FNHC
17.88Aug 24 4:00 PMEDT