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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

baseballfreak490 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 10, 2016 9:14 AM Member since: Feb 1, 2011
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  • Reply to

    What happened at the end of Feb?

    by baseballfreak490 Mar 26, 2016 10:48 AM
    baseballfreak490 baseballfreak490 Apr 10, 2016 9:14 AM Flag

    Thanks for the info. I just in Aug invested in oil (Bought Chevron which has done well)...I actually am looking to increase my exposure to oil because I think its going to be up for the long term... Still looking into this co...what are your sentiments on it at this point? It seems like a good value play right now.

  • baseballfreak490 by baseballfreak490 Mar 26, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    I'm just starting to investigate this stock and obviously noticed the major drop of Feb 29. A question for any one who has been studying this company for any length of time~ why did it drop so dramatically? the earnings and conference call seemed not bad- a small surprise in EPS, the announcement of a small, but seemingly solid company.... So why did it drop so much? The fundamentals look good there is practically no debt...the recent changes in management sound like they are good for the company... Am I missing anything here?

  • baseballfreak490 by baseballfreak490 Mar 21, 2016 3:47 PM Flag

    My girlfriend's son bought this company apparently he found it as a suggested buy on a phone app... Told him what an idiot he is for buying this stock or any like it and only a nut job would buy a stock like this one... only to find out there are a lot of you!!! How can anyone be surprised when a stock with no money, horrible EPS and a mkt cap of

  • Reply to

    Whats going on ??

    by baseballfreak490 Mar 18, 2016 7:17 AM
    baseballfreak490 baseballfreak490 Mar 19, 2016 9:40 AM Flag

    Not sure how long you have held this stock, but as I said, it's only been a month or so for me...Taxes would be too high if I sold short term, plus it has a decent DIV, which I take advantage of the DRIP, which is another 3% for me...If the stock goes sideways for the next year- not up or down any at all- my one yr return will be roughly 20% which I'm not complaining about... Of course things may go down as likely as they might go up, but I have no intentions on selling. I have confidence that management will be smart when the price is down (I.e. stock buybacks), and they will be able to whether some rough times. BKE has good fundamentals- great profitability returns, no debt, decent amount of cash to name a few. In addition, It looks to me like they manage inventory well so they dont have a ton of merchandise in warehouses. I think BKE is positioned well for the long term...just wish I'd have bought more when it was a few bucks a share cheaper.

  • baseballfreak490 by baseballfreak490 Mar 18, 2016 7:17 AM Flag

    Anyone have any ideas what is driving the big price swings? I haven't heard or read any thing that would make this stock gyrate so big...down huge the other day, up huge yesterday...I bought more the day it was down a few % but didn't expect a 15-17% return so quickly--I bought in Feb 9, 2016 and planned to add shares over the next few months but BKE has taken off faster than I thought- not that I'm complaining!

  • baseballfreak490 by baseballfreak490 Mar 12, 2016 9:19 AM Flag

    Not surprised that earnings were good, they have been doing cost cutting to help make up for (temporary) downturn in sales. We knew earnings would not match last year, ($1.13 vs $1.25 a year ago). I was happy to hear (and a bit surprised) that online sales were up about 7% over the same time last year, and year over year sales online were up 11%...I hedged my bets a few days ago and didn't buy more the day BKE dropped a few % (March 3d I think) much to my consternation, but I'm still planning on buying more, maybe Monday, as the 4% increase may yield to some profit taking... I wish BKE would have done more in the way of buybacks at the previously depressed prices, but now would still be a good time to in my opinion. This is a great company for the long haul I think...

  • Reply to

    Soft Comps - will continue

    by footgear2 Feb 18, 2016 10:43 AM
    baseballfreak490 baseballfreak490 Mar 3, 2016 11:31 AM Flag

    I likely will buy some tomorrow and wait until earnings announcement to buy any more...Earnings announced March 11 i think? that correct?

  • Reply to

    Soft Comps - will continue

    by footgear2 Feb 18, 2016 10:43 AM
    baseballfreak490 baseballfreak490 Mar 3, 2016 10:41 AM Flag

    I see this as an over reaction by the market, I'm buying more today I think...Maybe doubling my position. This is still a solid company and they will bounce back...Not a time for a long investor to panic... congrats on your short profits today..

  • baseballfreak490 baseballfreak490 Feb 29, 2016 5:34 PM Flag

    I just bought in as well--Feb 9th and Feb 16th... I was doing my own due dillegence on BRK, then stumbled upon sources saying Warren would consider buybacks when the P/B is 1.2 or so....So whether he actually does or doesn't do any share repurchases doesn't matter too much to me- I'm happy that I felt it was a good time to buy at this price, just as Buffett does...He never said he would buy back at P/B of , just that that or lower is where he would if he were so inclined... maybe he has some takeovers or something he's working on...Anyway I'm, of course, long on this stock. Plan on buying a few hundred more shares over the next quarter or so...I'm planning on holding BRK for the next 30 or 40 yrs or so... Just my 2 cents

  • Reply to

    INSIDER selling ?

    by footgear2 Feb 25, 2016 12:04 PM
    baseballfreak490 baseballfreak490 Feb 29, 2016 5:21 PM Flag

    looks like this guy has a history of disposing of shares not long after acquiring them... stock options . maybe he just wanted to diversify but i'd not be concerned til more insiders start to sell. I'm long on this stock...just bought in in early Feb, plan on buying more over the next few months. Still a great co with strong fundamentals

  • Reply to

    Soft Comps - will continue

    by footgear2 Feb 18, 2016 10:43 AM
    baseballfreak490 baseballfreak490 Feb 21, 2016 9:27 AM Flag

    I do think this is the time for the company to do some share buy backs and hope they do a good deal of it...I'm holding my shares long term and if that is what will temporarily increase the price I don;t see a problem with that, especially for investors holding for the 3 to 5 yr horizon or longer. As for your comment on the market volatility lately, mainly as you attribute it to the fluctuations in oil prices, I tend to agree with you there. Actually in my opinion, low oil prices should actually benefit a retail company, as the exposure of a co like BKE to the oil and energy markets is strictly as a consumer, not producer, and lower costs of consumption will help lower costs for BKE and other retailers as far as transportation of inventory, as well as to a certain smaller extent, some production costs. To me the swings of the broader market are buying opportunities for those who believe, as I do, that oil prices will eventually climb again...which is why I'm also investing in the energy sector, namely, Chevron, which I bought in at back in August at about $73 a share... sorry for such a long, mainly boring post...

  • Reply to

    Soft Comps - will continue

    by footgear2 Feb 18, 2016 10:43 AM
    baseballfreak490 baseballfreak490 Feb 19, 2016 8:16 AM Flag

    Interesting point, though I'd have to respectfully disagree to a certain point. I think the fact that this is a well run company with smart management means to me that they will be able to make BKE more efficient and even if it takes a little while they will increase profitability for the long term. This is the time to buy... I've added to my stake over the past week, and currently it accounts for roughly 12-15% of my portfolio. I likely will buy more over the near term, and would encourage others to follow suit....I think at this price I see share buybacks coming, or at least I'd like to see that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy of decade for this stock at these prices.

    by principletrade Jan 14, 2016 12:25 PM
    baseballfreak490 baseballfreak490 Feb 9, 2016 1:49 PM Flag

    The only thing that bothers me is that the co has gone down in basically a straight line for the past year.. Does anyone reading this think that the change of the VP will benfit, hurt or have no affect?

  • Reply to

    Buy of decade for this stock at these prices.

    by principletrade Jan 14, 2016 12:25 PM
    baseballfreak490 baseballfreak490 Feb 9, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    I've been tracking this co for a short while but everything I have read about it tells me this is a great entry point. Management seems really smart with their decisions...I'm hoping for some share buybacks since the price is down so far. I think I'll be adding to my position over the next year or so. Right now BKE is about 15% of my total portfolio. I'm a buy and hold investor so I plan to keep this one for 5-10 yrs maybe more.

    Sentiment: Buy

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