This, if true, is great news. It means that there are six fewer stupid people in the world than I had thought.
Over the past three months, prior to today, there were 7 posts on the Yahoo! board for NERV. Six of these were spam for various stock newsletters.
Yes, hawk25702 was certainly a naughty boy to not only keep his NERV position a secret from the rest of us, but to keep it a secret from everyone on the NERV board, too. One of the final stages of disillusionment with one's stock investments is to fantasize about imaginary investments.
PS In 2011, the year immediately preceding the Launch of Linzess, Ironwood ended the year with $164MM in the bank, so they were in much better shape than SGYP will be at the end of 2016. Despite this fact, and despite the fact that Forest was going to pay for half the marketing and sales expenses, they had to float a secondary for $100MM in early 2012. In 2013, they not only floated another secondary for $136MM, they issued notes for $175MM. In 2015, with the launch in its third year, they floated another secondary for $300MM. So, to get Linzess to its present stage of development AFTER APPROVAL, they not only had to sell half the rights to the drug, they had to raise another $700MM. All this time, they were also collecting licensing and milestone payments from their four partners. (Now three, since the purchase of Almirall's rights by Allergan.)
My point is that Synergy is in no position to go it alone. This does not really put their "excellent management" in a strong bargaining position, as is demonstrated by their recent sale of a major chunk of the company for $3 a share.
Bet you could use a little air, stu. You're deep underwater on this short and going down for the third time.
Yeah, it does seem outrageous. I would remind you that Ironwood received approval for Linzess for both CIC and IBS-C in August of 2012.
The successful trial of Minerva's schizo drug apparently took everyone by surprise. This is a stock which had plodded along at around 5- 6, trading about 35,000 shares a day. This week, ahead of the release of the trial data, the volume increased quickly .... and everyone was selling. On Monday, it traded over 500,000 shares and the stock dropped almost a dollar. On Tuesday, 229,000 shares were traded and it dropped another 20 cents. Yesterday, 361,000 shares traded and it dropped another 30 cents. Everyone was obviously dumping it and running. The major holder Care Capital III, which had held 3.9 million shares at the beginning of the year, had also been dumping shares, and by the end of March had sold all but a million shares. Yes, everyone was selling ... except for that insightful contrarian, hawk25702! He alone had the vision to buy this hitherto unknown and unmentioned stock (1 Yahoo message board post in the last 3 months). And he didn't share this brilliant hunch with his good buddies ... who still trust him!
Speaking of losing it, why aren't you out spending your imaginary NERV winnings?
What really threw me off the scent of your brilliant gamble on NERV was that until today, you never mentioned it. In fact, you seem never to mention any stock but SGYP. You can understand how some people less trusting than I might question your veracity.
Many months ago, someone here guesstimated that the average price for his initial position was 8.32 a share. He doubled up at lower prices and then added a much larger lot at 3. Maybe 4 or thereabouts?
What sanctimonious tripe. As if being long this stock is an act of selfless patriotism, rather than just a financial speculation. Personally, when I think of the Great Men who built this Great Country of ours, I think of Commodore Cornelius Vanderbilt, the great builder and operator of steamships and founder of he New York Central ... who made and lost a fortune shorting the Erie Railroad. Jay Gould, guiding spirit of the Union Pacific and a dozen other railroads .. who was also a notorious short, first collaborating with Vanderbilt on the famous Erie War, then betraying him. The great Daniel Drew, perhaps the most famous short of all, who made a vast fortune, endowed Drew University with a huge bequest (which he never paid) and died broke. And let's not forget Jim Fisk, the brilliant stock speculator whose specialty was "watered stock" - railroad stocks which he sold at a high price, then systematically diluted while he shorted them. Great Americans all!
Does this mean that you're not going to cover your short until it hits 8, Stu? I think you just had some cheap puts, which have now been rendered worthless.
PS There are no small time buyers here. Which is demonstrated by the silence on Stocktwits. The small time buyers are all into SGYP. (Except for Paulson, of course - demonstrably the worst hedge fund manager over the past 4 years.)
When the category rebounds, these small caps tend to rebound more dramatically. Of course, the reverse is also true, unfortunately.
This is not important news for any SGYP longs ... except those who, like stu, indiansfan, barfonbroker, etc., followed the Phase IV Research raiders into a short of IRWD. Since that fateful day, April 26, SGYP is up 25 cents. IRWD is up $2.95. The more fortunate of these simply had their puts vaporized. However, many actually shorted the stock. As of 5/13, 23.1% of IRWD's float was short. On that same day, only 11.62% of SGYP's float was short. ( And, since there are never shares available to borrow for retail speculators, I'll wager that all of those short shares were in the hands of the MM's.)
Incidentally, if you were long SGYP, why would you have to double down on the same bet by shorting IRWD?
Despite the oft-expressed belief that SGYP is about to take IRWD's business, the two stocks have little in common. IRWD is a bet on how quickly they can turn a profit and start moving those big carryover losses to the other side of the balance sheet. SGYP is strictly a bet on the possibility of the company being acquired or partnered with.