I don't own any shares of SGYP. So I am awed and intimidated by you strutting around L2 flashing your big roll of 6,000 shares.
aisan0110: itsahorserace really is a committed long with a large (too large, in my opinion) position in SGYP. Challenging him to match your paltry 6,000 shares is a joke.
itsahorserace: aisan0110 s not a paid basher or a minion of mysterious shortsellers. He's just a pest.
Sender's 8K was filed on Nov. 10, 2015 when the stock was at $6 a share, so his option would be well under water. In any case, his options for 375,000 shares vested over three years in three tranches of 125,000 shares each, on the anniversary of the filing. The first 125,000 shares would have vested on Nov. 10,2016.
Just got the white cards from Sanofi and put them right into the recycle bag. I think they are wasting their time and money on this solicitation. They are telling you that their offer of $52.50 is a great opportunity, while the market is telling you that the company is worth $60 a share ...or more.
PS Note also that since March 30, the XBI, an ETF which features many smaller cap pharma stocks, is up 17%.
Note that since SNY made their offer, pharma stocks have been rallying. INCY, a comparable company in some ways, is up 25% since March 30. Among my holdings, GLPG is up 39%, ACHN up 31%, IRWD up 25%, etc. So, if we assume that MDVN would have advanced a more modest 20% without SNY's bid (7.48), this would suggest a current price of 44.87. In that light, the offer of 52.50 hardly seems like much of a premium.
To the degree that the stock drifts down, it's probably due to short term retail speculators on margin looking for a quick profit. The long tem holders are doing fine here and are not in any hurry to unload their shares, I think.
In addition to arguing the strength of their pipeline, Medivation points out that the tender offer was made at the nadir of pharma valuations. I note that the stock is up about 55% from its recent low of March 30; however the IBB is up 15% since that point. And many individual stocks have recovered much more quickly. INCY, another likely takeover candidate, is up 25% since that date. GLPG is up 39%, ACHN up 31%, IRWD is up 26% etc. If we assume a 25% increase in price due to normal market fluctuations, that would take the price up from 38 to 47.5. In that context, a 52.50 offer represents a tiny premium.
That possibility occurred to me. However, checking out the schedule of ASCO abstracts, there was no relevant major presentation today ... at least as far as I can see.
Yes, I was gone for a while and jumped back in on the news of the offer at around 47. Knowing the company and their prospects fairly well made it easer to pull the trigger even in the aftermath of the runup. You, I assume, have stayed the course - something you also did in the case of PCYC, if I recall correctly. That was a costly bit of profit-taking on my part.
A mini flash crash. I added some at 59.5. When someone wants to unload shares in a heavily arbitraged stock such as this, it makes no sense to throw them into the market quickly. But no doubt some stops got taken out. One of the interesting arguments Medivation advances against acceptance of the offer is that it was made at the low point of the biotech selloff.
Notwithstanding nitabosco's consistent statements to the contrary, Ironwood's current market cap (per NASDAQ) is $1.87 billion. Synergy's is $676 million. The problem is that the poor innocent has confused "capitalization" (the amount of money invested in a company) with "market capitalization" (the aggregate market value of the outstanding shares). Of course, in all other areas, such as the certainty of plecanatide swiftly supplanting Linzess, nitabosco's logic is irrefutable.
Well, it would be easy for any solvent company to own CTRV. The current market cap is $33MM.
Yes, and the fact that the Ironwood reps now also detail Cologuard and Viberzi further demonstrates how desperate they are to avoid the oncoming plecanatide juggernaut. The surprising thing is that while the Synergy shareholders look forward eagerly to a launch in 2017, Synergy has made no moves to hire a sales force or even to sign up a manufacturer for the drug.
PS I should note that the Ironwood sales force also reps the Allergan IBS-D drug, Viberzi.
Correction: The gout drug, Zurampic, is an AstraZeneca product.
Through stock dilution in 2015 and 2016, they have already, in effect, sold 44% of the company. These 80 million additional shares were floated at about $3 a share. (The second note redemption was actually at around $2.80 a share.) They still have only a fraction of the money it would take to launch plecanatide.
The fact that Allergan passed the responsibility for detailing Viberzi to Ironwood would also tend to discount this popular rumor. In truth, AGN would be the least likely suitor for SGYP. It would be like GM paying a lot of money to Ford to acquire the Lincoln brand in order to sell Lincolns out of the Cadillac dealerships.