For some reason, there seems to be a fear amongst investors that the cash per shares simply goes away, either through litigation in a worst case scenario of Omontys safety, or by virtue of some luniacal impression that cash cas just be taken away from the stock holders (owners) of the company with no explanation.
I choose to think that Omontys is not going to get slaughtered with litigation because I choose to believe that Omontys is not the issue at the heart of the problems. But that is simply my judgement. Either way, I see cash value per share as a reason to buy here, even in the worst case scenario. Others (godwinpeak et al) do not. We'll see who wins.
The purpose, I believe, of Orwin mentioning BK was an honest assessment of what could happen: If Omontys kills people, and litigation piles up, and judgements against the company pile up, AFFY may have to file BK.
But that may not be the case. Thus the long case for buying..
I guess I missed your prior posts regarding BK... I don't see the BK case - unless O kills people, pure and simple. And if it kills people, It does not come back to market in it present form, and assuming Takeda wants to spend the money on additional studies and trials, it may never come back.
Personally, I believe the long case at a buck is far better then the short case. Maybe at $5 bucks I would be on your side.. JMHO
Because they are combined orders that were all placed as "market on close" orders.. These orders can be entered at any time of the trading day, but no later than 3:45.. Almost every stock has a huge order that goes off at 4:00 for this reason. It is no big deal.
What would be the purpose of BK'ing for AFFY? And what possible good could a BK judgement, if even allowed, do for AFFY? There are no creditors to speak of, and no awards from litigation at this point? Why would Brenner file for BK? Why go to the cost and time? You insight appreciated on this point, because if it is future litigations, well, no judge in the world is going to grant them BK status when 1) no one knows how/why the patients dies, 2) there are currently no claims against AFFY, and 3) there is cash in the coffer..
By the way, back in early 2000's when HealthSouth went to 5 cents, and everybody wrote it off as BK, they hired as CEO Alvarez & Marsal (they do what Brenner does). Everyone screamed BK BK BK because that is basically what Marsal does.. But, they restructured HLSH (otc) back to HLS, and it went from 5 cents to about $7 bucks..And they had massive debt and litigations out the a $ss.
p.s. you sound an awful lot like a poster called demiwhite from those days.
If AFFY stays above a buck, you might see a lot of assignments, but for those who were selling naked calls, they would cover Monday, not Friday, if even then.. There will prob not be a movement of the market due to options. JMHO.. Also, my bet is AFFY closes Friday righ on $1.00 or even 99 cents ro prevent auto-assignment. The big money will win this June contest.. JMHO again
I do not actually believe this was granuflo. The memo indicates that as of Feb 13th, no probs.... A Granuflo issue would have been present prior to this !!!! The memo suggests that something went wrong right away. Thus my belief that 1) manufacturing of Omontys 2) handling, but I doubt, and 3) AMGN pressure, and thus spike in "reporting" issue ...
1 & 3 are my bets..
AFFY was forced - yes forced - into a total recall because Fresenius suddenly announced they were NOT going to use Omontys; after the Feb 13th memo? Hmmmmm...... Sounds a lot like # 3 to me... Although #1 is in play... Clearly, like I said, money brings out the worst. I think something is rotten in Denmark, as I have said TOOOO many times... Times to clear this up; not only for Omontys, but the whole da mn industry !
conspiracy comes to mind...seriously. something is not right here. AFFY was forced to do a total recall after Fresnius stated that there were discontinuing its use. Hmmmmm... Days after this memo... I have said something is rotten in Denmark (in AMGN, that is), and something is totally amiss here. Totally suspicious.. Of course, where there is $$$$, there is deceit, thievery, trickery, bribery.. TO name only a FEW..
So two weeks before the whole thing crashes in, Fresenius has major probs? Specifically with Omontys, and not Epo, which they have since stated. The ONLY explanation IMO is manufacturing lot(s)... GranuFlo ? Sure.. I think manufacturing was the prob.. Gotta be..
These results will be presented to our Corporate Medical Advisory Board with follow up reporting to our medical staff. In the meantime, this communication is to inform you of our confirmation of the adjusted prescribing information and the finding that such allergic reactions can occur in patients receiving the first dose of the drug. For patients on OMONTYS®, we recommend continued use of the agent as it has been providing effective anemia management. We plan to pause the rollout to additional facilities and patients at this time until the analyses are complete and reported to our medical staff. As many of you have become quite comfortable with the medication, physicians and facilities that have been using OMONTYS® who wish to continue prescribing it for new patients may choose to do so.
As we complete the analysis in the next week or two we plan to provide an update on the pilot experience and any future recommendations. I thank you for your participation in determining best protocols and practices around the use of OMONTYS® and we will update you with the analysis of our experience once complete.
With best regards,
Franklin W. Maddux, MD, FACP
Chief Medical Officer
Executive VP For Clinical and Scientific Affairs
Fresenius Medical Care North America
Jeffrey L. Hymes, MD
Associate Chief Medical Officer
Fresenius Medical Care North America
A Fresenius memo dtd Feb 13, 2013 clearly indicates that the Fresenius trials with Omontys were fine, and that docs could continue its usage. Then, couple of weeks later, everything crashes down. What In The He ll is going on????????
EX-99.1 2 a13-5217_1ex99d1.htm EX-99.1
February 13, 2013
We are writing to provide an interim update on the status of our pilot to assess the use of OMONTYS® in the FMCNA dialysis facilities. The purpose of the commercial pilot is to determine the role of OMONTYS® as an alternative Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agent (ESA) on the FMCNA Formulary. The assessment includes efficacy, safety and logistics related to this agent that was approved for use by the Food and Drug Administration at the end of March 2012.
We will now pause expansion of the pilot that began in late July 2012. We have accumulated experience in more than 56,600 administrations in over 18,000 unique patients. Two months into the FMCNA pilot program, the FDA released revised product information that added language similar to the prescribing information for EPOGEN® concerning the risk for allergic reactions, which we communicated to you in November 2012. To date, we have seen infrequent allergic reactions in our patient population receiving their first dose of OMONTYS®. Most of these reactions have been mild, but a small number have been serious. The rate of allergic reactions has been on the order of 1:1000 patients receiving a first dose of OMONTYS®. The vast majority of patients who are receiving the medication on an ongoing monthly basis are tolerating it well.
We are now working to analyze the full set of efficacy and safety profile information and feel that the current scale of our experience with use of the drug is adequate to complete this analysis. These results will be presented to our Corporate Medical Advisory Board with follow up reporting to our medical staff. In the meantime, this communication is
The reply posting is just too tight..
But maxdad... Could you possibly be .... I shudder to think...
Could you be ..... thegreycorner, and godwinpeak.. ?
I mean.. the tightness of the posting and replies - even at late hours - seems, well, tight (as I said)..
But to what end? To what nonsensical end ???
No offense.. I'm just asking...
Is this stock, AFFY, some Jeckyll/Hyde all-or-none stock that gives you license to ... come out and be FREE ???
LOL... Nothing would surprise me after almost 4 decades of this godless debauchery we call the stock market..
I'm going to check on this when I go into work tomorrow, as I have more resources... Wonder if they have crossing transactions for options. It would make a lot more sense as a Xing trans. I will let you know what I find out..
Well, that particular player is positioning for a bullish July play, not June... Does not mean that June is out of the question. It is simply the way they are playing it. Realistically, June only has four more trading day. But one never knows. I will lose all my Junes, too. So if you're losing yours, you got plenty of company..
With no news, they will pin this to $1 for June, as I suspect, then you must begin playing long shares to capitalize on the gain if / when if comes..
But keep in mind this:
When AFFY ran a couple of weeks ago, someone KNEW of the delisting, they took that liberty to 1) fun the shares and sell naked, thus trading free shares, and 2) opening tons of OI because they knew they could only close it after the delist.
There are some shenannigans going on for sure.
But the money trail says .... AFFY GOING UP.
Hold on... Meant to say sold the JUl $2.5 P, sold the July $4 C, and bought the July $5 call for protection on half..
Bullish, and means they expect AFFY to finish July OE between $2.5 and $5... But not more.
This would explain the extremely bullish October volume two weeks ago.
Some expecting AFFY to triple by July OE, and to go WAY UP by October...
AWESOME.. If - if - they are right..
Mersh, I'm looking at the Yahoo Finance options chain for July, today's volume.
Check now, before they clear it.
On first glance, it appears someone opened a position.
I'm guessing, but I'll say sold the July $2.5 puts, bought the July $4 calls, and sold the July $5 calls to pay for half of the $4's they bought.
To say the least, if I'm right, this is extremely bullish.
Keep in mind on options... This !!!
Don't think of the opening transactions as "buy side."
Think of the the transactions as seller side. After all , the seller owns the shares.
Always think of options from the SELL side. After 35 years of this stuff, this lesson taught me the most.
LOOK AT OPTIONS AS SELL SIDE ONLY TRANS...(even options Monster looks at buyside.. They know better, they are just enticing novices in...)
This transaction indicates a big move up for AFFY before July OE..
As always, JMHO and DO NOT FOLOW ME OFF THE CLIFF.
Does that not look like opening transactions? How the h e ll ona otc?
In addition, looking like someone thinking this triples by July OE..
Affy will certainly trade down below a buck this week, as the big money thieves force it down to close out all the Jun $1 open interest... Without selling you long position, you can trade the stock around this manipulation. If you have the resouces, consider doubling down temporarily when they take this below a buck, and then sell it next week as it rises again.. All this, assuming there is no news this week, of course.
Point is, however: don't let the big money pinning this at a buck disturb your peace of mind if you are hard and fast long... GLTA
Someone knew the delisting was coming, I believe. The share price ran up to $2.. I'm sure plenty sold the $1 calls naked for $1+, and now will cover. Basically, that little tidbit of "insider info" will now allow them trade FREE shares at $1.... And this, the most "regulated and safe" stock market place in the world.. LOL...But we're the little guys.. Everything money is built on the backs of the little guy. Always has been. Always will be...
Big money will still push AFFY down next week to close out the June options at a buck.... This is expected, and means that the big money wants to keep their shares. Remember, no opening trades on options, but there will be plenty of closing trades. I doubt if any news comes out next week to push the price up, but jmho.. So don't let the action scare you out. AFFY will probably go below a buck. It will have nothing to do with news.. All options related, and all good. AFFY will rebound again after that (if no news).