Increased liquidity is a good sign. Some buyers may have been holding back because of low liquidity. Also allows those who are looking to get out a way to do it gracefully and without damage.
With no Li sales and none likely for several years how is PE "ahead of the pack". ? What about SQL, ALB, FMC, Talison,China? More like the ships have sailed and PE standing on the dock still waiting for construction plans so they can give them to the shipbuilder.
No. Musk has bigger and better things to spend his time on. There are plenty of Li suppliers around the world who will fill his needs. And I saw that they are accelerating the the opening of the plant - PE just not ready. PE Li no different than any other Li - price and delivery is what matters not reserves.
PE does not yet have the plans , cost or schedule for the new process plant. The big spike was caused by two CNBC segments. Buyers have now done some DD and it is drifting back down. Look for news about lab tests and plans - not reserves.
With the low P/E and high free cash flow they may end up being the hunted rather than the hunter.
In the past month PD and Pt have risen over $100/oz. During that same month PLG hit 3.98 and but has come down 25% to 3.05 despite reporting a first time profitable qtr. IF PMs slip could be painful here. I will start to nibble under 3.00, GL
As I see the tea leaves there is good support in the 2.75 - 3.10 area. Will start to nibble there. Earnings report due around the 20th. Hopefully there will hard data about increased TPD and better head grade reported not the usual miner blah,blah,blah about "progress". GL
.15 -.16 seems a bit of a stretch. You would need qtr of
.034 (q1 act)
.037 (q2 est)
.040 (q3 est)
.043 (q4 est)
.154 for 2016
Considering that 2015 was .126 that would be YOY of 22%. AMNF just not growing that fast.
Giving them IMO a generous 15% YOY that would be .145 I would be happy with .14 and a P/E of 18
would get AMNF to 2.50 or so by Y/E.
Q2 results likely out Thurs 14th after 11Pm ET. I would be happy with .0365.
As for a buyout- that is not out of the question. Mgt has shown itself to be tax aware - remember the spec div paid on the last day of the year (2014?) when there was a good chance the low tax rate on div might expire?
Well there is a good chance that cap gains rates may go up so they may decide to take the money and run. But I wouldn't expect that to happen for a least a year. Small cap M&A activity in the food industry has been in the niche area - organic, natural, artisanal etc. Unable to find any comps so as to get a feel for premiums.
The question is not whether Musk/TSLA is late to the party it is a question of whether PE will be a supplier of beer to the party. The big guys ALB, SQM , SMC ,Talison are all gearing up to fill the Li supply chain.
Read the Nov 16 2015 PR. Lays out what they expect to have by the end 2016.
Description of analytical methods and laboratory procedures
Description of the mini-pilot tests and operating conditions
Results of the mini-pilot tests with analytical data on efficacy and efficiency of lithium recovery
Recommendations for the continuous pilot stage and additional engineering studies
Initial recommendations for industrial scale, including preliminary flowsheets
Scale-up data, including preliminary estimates of capital and operating costs at industrial scale
So at the end of 2016 they (if all goes on schedule) will hopefully have the last two most critical plans. Once these are in hand, what is the chance they can finance, permit, build , commission and tune the plant in 2 years? IMO pretty small. So that's why I am projecting no Li until late 2019. If they don't meet these plan milestones by YE 2016 things really get ugly. I will not invest until I see those documents.