Instead of meat and potatoes I offer numbers. Q2 SWC basket price I calculate will be about $669/oz. That is $55 higher than Q1 and about 7.7M more in revenue (assuming 140K production). That will be still be a small loss or about 2.2 M or about -.02.share. This might vary slightly with continued cost reductions but I think the low hanging cost reduction fruit has been picked. Recycling is always the wild card. SO how ill the comparisons look:
Q2 2015 +.19 /share
Q2 2016 -.02 /share (my est)
Q1 2016 -.08
Q2 2016 -.02/share (my est)
So YOY will look bad, seq will look good although still a loss.
Will this be considered a beat or a bust?
Will this report support a price near 52 week high?
Will PM metal prices continue to rally?
Answers are left as an exercise to the student.
GL have a nice WE.
Drill results have little meaning right now. So what if "reserves" double? How about a announcement about processing plant plans, cost to build and schedule. Brine in the ground is not once ounce of Li delivered to anyone. And plant yield and cost to produce Li are a total guess.And several major financings are needed. You guys are 3 years premature in your hopes. Relax, be patient.
I don't know if it is a fraud, but like any junior e/d miner their principal product is stock and reserve reports. Expect 2-3 major financings before processing plant is spec'ed, planned, built, tuned and producing. With no news on the processing plant, I am pushing out my estimate for "first" Li to 2019.
If you think that is crazy consider it could take a couple of years just to get EPA reports and permits to pump and dispose of tailings. And without detailed plant specs they will be hard pressed to come up with numbers for the needed permits etc. IMO there is a 50/50 chance they may never produce Li.
Mining is a brutal business to begin with and TSLA/EV are attracting Li e/d like flies to a steer. Li is a worldwide commodity, - lowest delivered price wins - no matter where or how produced.
Pretty much in-line with my thinking. My spec threshold is 3% any one stock, 7% total. Sold out of PLG avg 3.35. Made about 5K but was a struggle, gain on some lots, loss on others. As we have seen with other mining stocks, better grade and higher volume seems always just around the quarter. May start to nibble under 3.00.
$15 for a mosquito net (for malaria reduction ) will yield more worldwide benefit than HEP C reduction.
Looks like the big boats have set sail and PE still waiting for plans from the shipbuilder.
Great for Li producers who can deliver.
“The current strategy seems to be no direct investment but leveraging the Tesla name by signing ‘contingent’ contracts at unachievably low prices with junior mining companies who have never produced lithium chemicals,” says Joe Lowry, a market expert and founder of Global Lithium, a consultancy."
The wish-ware contract is what spiked HMGLF.
As I read it, it was YTD and YE projections that are weak, not just June. Guess will just have to wait it out. And yes, nice gains in Pd and SWC.
With no Li sales and none likely for several years how is PE "ahead of the pack". ? What about SQL, ALB, FMC, Talison,China? More like the ships have sailed and PE standing on the dock still waiting for construction plans so they can give them to the shipbuilder.
Correct. Canada is very strict about foreign takeovers. Law says there must be a benefit to Canada (i.e more or saved jobs). BAM could argue without a takeover mine would close thus losing jobs. Canada killed a deal for POT a couple of years ago. I am back in POT as there have been rumblings of takeover and with a 6.22 yield (after the recent div cut) I can afford to hold. I do expect another div cut in the upcoming 12 months, but even at 5% it is above my total portfolio yield (3.5%).
As for the long term future of PD you know my opinion but let's assume I am wrong and PD increases another $100 and Pt $150. Basket price would be $130 more or $18M more in rev/qtr rising qtr EPS to maybe .15 (=.60 for the year). That would be a P/E of about 21. Seems a bit high for a (mining) company with highly varying earnings.
Just three more comments -
- higher prices could pull in more hoarded cc for recycling but from what I have read it's steel prices holding back cc recycling volume.
- I have not been tracking ETF holdings so I don't know how much of the recent rise might be attributed to ETF re-stock.
- most recent global auto full 2016 sales estimates are about +1.5% (YOY). WIth thrifting, CAFE std increases and EV increases , ICE may well be flat to slightly down.