Vale is probably not going out of business, so this could be a repeat of an "early" settlement payoff. After all the primary reason for the expansion was for Vale. The cause is there and Vale will lose. So I would think NM would be in a position to take a lump sum payout as they did with the charter insurance companies. Maybe a pipe dream but they have done it before for what was it about 200 million there bouts? So with a bit of savvy on NM's part they could negotiate a deal that would make this go away for vale and basically recapitalize NM. Think if they got handed 300 to 400 million to stop the lawsuit. Vale is on the hook for a billion dollars fighting it will be costly and they will still lose. They could also settle for a haircut on the take or pay and a lump sum penalty fee. Then if they have any sense they would sell the damn port and get the balance sheet in order or even pick up a few distressed ships. Looks like the boxships will take a haircut but its better than no hair. There are a lot of positive moving pieces, they could pay suspended dividends out, buy those shares back at a huge discount, lots can be done with the hand dealt. AF and company just need to play the hand out right.
How much is NNA debt selling for? near par or at a big discount??? Even idiot Economou is buying back disttressed bonds for ORIG in size. Are NNA bonds low enough for a big hair cut on debt? Seriously this is a battered business and cash is king. Lower the debt by buying bonds, lower interest costs. All these shippers are going bust due to over leveraging their balance sheets assuming they were invincible. NM once had a pristine reputation. The binge buying on the credit card has put NM's existence in peril. If the bonds are to high the best in my opinion is to buy out all the shares from NM not as good as extinguishing debt but taking the NM overhang off. Similar to what Orig did with Drys. NM with is going to be forced to liquidate assets, the preferreds are continuing to accrue, the interest payments continue, so NNA can throw a more legitimate lifeline by buying out NM and NM does need the cash. A clean break. This in my opinion will break NNA free to move back to the range of the IPO as the stock would move back into treasury not being paid dividend and available at an opportune time for use for opportunistic aquisition. AF will lose NM if she doesn't swallow her pride and make the necessary moves. The port has to go also. Should have been gone 2 years ago. But greek shippers had a tendency to be bull headed and think they have all the answers and put themselves on the brink of bankruptcy en masse. NNA relieved of NM will be free to move as a viable entity of its own and probably get to 10 bucks over the next year or so. Otherwise its gonna get lumped with NM and as the market turns cyclical and down, opportunity will yet again be lost. And you can shutter everything Navios.
finally the queen of debt is doing the right thing. paying down the credit card. saving some cash too for the day which WILL come soon that NNA buys out NM because she has run out of money to pay NM's credit card. NNA will become a stand alone. NM will be forced to divest to survive. AF's fortune is in NM. NNA will be sold back to NM and the port will be sold off. There are NO other options for her, unless she buys NM out herself, which i don't think she has that capacity. I took hits forever on this. DEBT is killing shippers. When you see a Greek shipper bragging on how much debt they can take on, one should at least pay attention. Were it not for the insurance settlement a few years back, NM would have already folded. AF is gonna be forced to divest anjything of value to salvage her approx 30% stake in NM. A 1 cent beat and the stock will wallow till next season.