The prepayment condition now requires that $10 million be repaid on July 31, 2016 if positive results from the EPIC study have not been demonstrated to Hercules by that date. The capital raise requirement was eliminated. In addition, the amortization date was extended from June 1 to July 1, 2016, and, in the case of positive EPIC data by July 31, 2016, the amortization date will be extended to March 1, 2017, provided that no event of default has occurred. The Company expects top-line data from the EPIC study in the second quarter of 2016.
Hercules needs positive EPIC to delay the $10 million due - negative data Mast needs to deliver the $10 million. Mast still has to pay the $500K on July 1st
Check out Twitter.
Mast Therapeutics will be reporting top-line data from their Phase III in VOC next month. If positive, they will have the market to themselves. All depends on the data. Time will tell.
Maxim has reiterate their price target every chance they get. No price targets or analyst comments will impact this stock. It's all about data right now. If EPIC's data is good, they will have a clear runway into a large market with barely any treatments. I still think GBT will buy Mast if results are good/great.
The good think for Mast is that they will have the best product on the market (hopefully) for 5+ years before other curative therapies come to market - GBT first, Blue later. Once that happens it will erode Vepo's sales, however not overnight. This will give Mast time to develop Vepo in other indication as well as AIR001, which has no value at all for Mast. AIR001 could be a sizable drug.
Sale could reach about $300 to $500 million. Jazz put a 4x peak sale multiple on Celator so I would expect a 3-4 multiple on Mast, so a price of $1 billion to $1.5 billion is not out of the question. My thought would be a lesser amount though it all stock deal since Mast would experience the growth of the combined company. I just think Mast can't do it alone. Also they have a great presence in the SC community so this will just enhance GBT's brand. Time will tell. Mast needs great data. We will see in July.
If Mast's Phase III data is overwhelmingly positive (VOC reduction of 24 hours +), I would not be surprise to see GBT acquire Mast. Mast is looking to commercialize the product in late 2017, thus giving GBT an approved drug in the SC market. Additionally, Mast margins are incredible high giving GBT cash flow to advance other GBT's product pipeline. Just a thought. Also Ted Love was on the board of Mast before GBT so he is familiar with the product.
My thought would be a stock deal. I'm sure Brian wants to continue to receive the potential growth of Vepo's pipeline and AIR001. Celator was acquired for 4x peak sales. If vepo's peak sales are $400 million that's a $1.6 billion valuation. GBT and Mast would have a strong hold on the Sickle Cell population.
From the get go, if MST-188 was positive, my thoughts would be that a company who is developing a SC agent like GBT, BLUE would acquire Mast to get their name around for SC patient community to help ease patients into their "curative" therapy - years down the road. GBT is having an Investor Day next Friday - Ted Love is the CEO and was on the BOD of Mast so he is familiar with the company. It's kind of strange to have an Investor Day to just go over data that is already being presented at a conference. Just a thought.