Crystal ball? No way, and I apologize if my post came off too strong. I sold most of my shares because my cost basis was under 8 and I had decided to book profits. I've been in and out of Alon for years and have seen the share price over 40 (before divestiture of ALDW) and also at the other end at very low prices and know the refining sector goes through periods of boom and bust. If I had a 'crystal ball' then I would have sold all my shares last year, but I kept a small amount just in case the run wasn't over and also held onto it and have ridden it all the way down because I keep a better eye on stocks when I have a position in them. As I wrote, this stock could continue it's downward trajectory, and the news today of the company seeking options from JP Morgan makes me bristle that things aren't all together well and there might be a secondary offering or some other ploy that will take the share price down quite a bit more. Considering the crack spread narrowed significantly and the amount of profit margins has been squeezed the past few months I'm a bit disappointed but not surprised that the BOD hasn't acted more aggressively in reducing/ cutting the dividend to preserve capital levels. But I've seen this way too often in publicly traded companies, the BOD are incompetent or simply too stupid to take swift actions early in hopes of propping up the share price which in the end costs shareholders even more.
When did Tesla start manufacturing trucks? For what you pay for one, it should be a home.
"I hear you, but at the same time you probably couldn't imagine it dropping from $20 to $5.86 either before that happened. "
Actually, I sold shares of Alon last year when it was running up first in the mid/high teens and then in the low 20's so yes I guess you could say in fact I did imagine it dropping from 20 to 5.86. What I couldn't imagine was the speed at which the bottom has fallen out in the stock and I have taken my gains from Alon 's sale last year and have rebuilt my stake to even more shares than I held back in 2014 and will continue to add a little more since I still have some funds left (not that much anymore). I'll also admit that I'm not optimistic that we'll see the stock run up back to the 20's anytime soon, this investment I'm making is for a long term play, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see another run up to 20 in the next 5 years if you have the patience. Of course, if the tide turns for refining companies, Delek may come back and try and acquire the remaining stake, but it will be interesting to see if the Board approves a buy-out (of course they will if they are given board positions where they can make easy money working as Delek directors- I'm not that naive).
Thanks. I was just prodding him since governor Brown just added a few more twists to one of the most regulated gun control states in the Union. But I did want to add this piece (copy and pasted Jeye) as part of my sincere wishes of gratitude for your informative post:
Republicans in California supported increased gun control. Reagan was present when the protesters arrived and later commented that he saw "no reason why on the street today a citizen should be carrying loaded weapons" and that guns were a " ridiculous way to solve problems that have to be solved among people of good will." In a later press conference, Reagan added that the Mulford Act "would work no hardship on the honest citizen."
The bill was signed by Reagan and became California penal code 25850 and 171c.
No my friend (larry) you misread and misunderstood. The topic began with a discussion about guns and Jeye posted a response and then went off another one of his tangents about Democratic Politicians getting nabbed for illicit activity. Webby gave him a nod of approval on the off-topic portion and I called him on it since the last thing we should be doing is encouraging Jeye to continue to go off on his tangents in the middle of a thread (he needs to learn to start a new thread). Webby then so 'politely' told me to $^$%&#- off (twice). Such an eloquent genius that Webby is..............
Poor webby, you live in CA and the legislative body is passing more laws until they eventually come and take your guns away. Yup, they're coming for you webby, time to pack up and leave the state so that you can move in with your beloved off topic hero. It's okay bro', it's not the 1980's anymore and Ronald Reagan is no longer calling the shots. Or are you going to flip the bird to me again? So creative (NOT). Maybe you and qqq are related? (Seven years of posting and nothing but the same old negative, tired rhetoric).
And that my friend is probably the most intelligent post you've made in a long time. Thanks for the compliment, I'm honored. (Maybe I need to reconsider giving you more credit than qqq, evidently you are here with a #$%$ and moan attitude as well). Have a nice weekend.
Probably, but I still have more funds available and will gobble up more if it drops significantly below 5.85. Considering the stock has already plummeted quite a bit off it's highs in the 20's, I would be surprised if the stock falls below 5 dollars and couldn't imagine it falling below 4 dollars without some significant event/ dislocation in the company or general markets.
Well, I'm hoping the board announces a dividend cut so the share price will take one more trip to the downside because I have another order in to purchase some more shares at 5.85. Come on BOD, I want to load up some more shares before the next cycle up again! Hang in there longs, remember that when it looks bleakest is the best time to acquire shares on the cheap.
Not a chance they are short, it would entail massive lawsuits and their futures would be destroyed in the fall out. And if you believe Alon is going to go BK then you are obviously assuming that oil is no longer going to be in demand, because no new refiners are going to be built in the US due to regulatory hurdles. I'm sorry you lost so much money in your investment, and I would advise you stop looking at Alon's share price going forward because eventually the refining sector will snap back and Alon's share price will too and you'll only be more upset that you sold and didn't show some patience and discipline. Then again, since you apparently are 59, perhaps you shouldn't have been invested in Alon anyway because your investment time horizon is too short to ride out the cyclical disruptions.
I've recently upped my stake back to even more than prior to my sales when the stock was in the mid-teens and 20 and I have some comfort in knowing that the short percentage has gone down from 30 percent to 23 percent. Still a lot of shorts left to cover and hopefully they'll get burned by a turnaround in an improving crack spread. But if Donald Trump wins the election in November and initiates a trade war then we are in big trouble along with all corporations worldwide. (Although I can't imagine Trump would follow-through on many of his pledges, I think a lot is rhetoric to get himself elected and his supporters will learn a hard lesson that he's really just about doing what he can for himself at the expense of any and all those in his way).
"Why do you think the governing elite want our guns? "
No Adrian, the government elite don't want 'our guns', just yours. They are coming.............. :)
Hey, no need for an apology. Besides, the idea that Trump is a 'baby Christian' is absolute hilarity and deserves to be posted multiple times. In the grand scheme of things, it shows how James Dobson is just like a lot of those televangelists; a fraud and opportunist.
How is TSLA 'not involved' if they are making an offer to acquire SCTY for a 30 percent premium? It would seem that Elon's purchase of SCTY shares 4 months before the announcement is the ultimate 'insider information'. No?
Jeye, less you forgot, fear is often the best ingredient when an investor wants to bake a nice retirement cake. That, and a little blood on the street as Warren would say.
Well funny you should mention religion; James Dobson was reported to have said that Donald Trump has recently accepted a relationship with Christianity and is a 'baby Christian'.
There you go fixating on Hilary again. You must have some pretty good callouses formed by now. Another case of Mad Cow disease. I understand there's a lot of that going around in Orange county.
I checked the SCTY site; Elon bought over 569K shares on February 12. Here's a cut and paste (homage to Jeye):
MUSK ELONDirector 569,680 Indirect Purchase at $17.56 - $17.56 per share.
Elon Musk is the current poster boy for what's wrong with Wall Street.