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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

biogemfinder 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 3, 2016 4:59 PM Member since: Oct 25, 2007
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  • biogemfinder by biogemfinder Aug 3, 2016 4:59 PM Flag

    Sales trajectory for Cabo looks excellent..and the launch just started!! With the # of shares I hold, I hope to be able to retire!! If it does not get bought by a BP in the next 2 years (which is very unlikely), $50 in 3-5 years is possible. Thank you EXEL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • biogemfinder by biogemfinder Jul 15, 2016 1:55 PM Flag

    IMGN can start by reducing the work-force by 50% or so concentration on advancing pipeline rather than new discovery. Once revenues start trickling in from commercialization then it can focus on new products. But it appears that it has too much cost on the research side..

  • Just imagine is there was actual rush to cover the shorts. Clearly this is some kind of arbitrage, and those are borrowed by big institutions and not retailers. Retailers who think its a good idea to short exel at this juncture will be burned pretty badly. There are a lot of other biotechs that woul;d qualify for shorting..not exel. The earnings report may have a big positive surprise which can easily push the pps over $10 in short order.

  • Reply to

    48 Million Shorts

    by toohearn Jul 15, 2016 10:41 AM
    biogemfinder biogemfinder Jul 15, 2016 1:00 PM Flag

    Or they will be "exposed" with the shorts pulled down!! AT this point its hard to wrap your head around the "Short Strategy". They must have some kind of plan. But I think what will happen is they will be handed "newly minted shares" to cover at a fixed price with some premium. This way the shorts can get out without pushing the pps too high and EXEL and raise the much needed cash to pay the debt...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As of June 15, 2016, the short interest remains at 48M. It has not budged at all. Maybe the next report as of 6/30 to be disseminated on 7/12 will show significant reduction. If not we are setting up for a big squeeze or that new shares created for debt payment will be gobbled up by the shorts at a fixed price??

  • biogemfinder biogemfinder Jul 1, 2016 4:13 PM Flag

    there are companies who provide script numbers every week on a subscription basis. Does anyone here have those? Script numbers will be interesting to follow for the next few months....

  • 1. Roche or other BP has offer on the table at $15 per share or higher
    2. Sales figures for Cabo is exceeding expectations or pick upm is very impressive.
    3. Celestial prelim results are really good.
    4. Eu approval is coming up soon.
    5. Some fund is interested in buying shares at mkt price or higher that can pay off the debt.
    6. add you own reasons or speculation.

    But methinks some offer or multiple offers have been entertained already and the word is out ..at least for the privileged ones.

  • It pretty amazing to see that more than 12M shares have already been traded but the stock is up only 3%. Smells like somewhat coordinated and methodical short covering using big fund guys who have the most number of shares. This may also have something to do with the warrant holders and their shenanigans. I will be surprised if the short interest is not substantially lower than previous report.

    But the trend upwards is undeniable and due to interest from large institutions, its hard to keep the pps depressed.

  • biogemfinder by biogemfinder Jun 17, 2016 1:50 PM Flag

    I hope EXEL does not make the same mistake that Medarex made a few years ago! The CTLA franchise and the PD1 franchise (among others) is the hottest technology (checkpoint inhibitors) or Immunomod out there. BMY is reaping huge benefits but the nitwits in charge of the company sold it too soon to line their own pockets rather than looking at shareholder value. EXEL should wait it out if no one comes to the table with anything less than $5B. Since Cabo appears to be very active compound and is likely to have "pan-activity" in multitude of tumors alone or in combination, I believe it will have similar or even better activity in earlier (1st line or second line) stages of prostate cancer. Its going to be one expensive clinical trial to go head-to-head with SOC treatments, but they should do smaller studies to establish this once they have more resources from new revenues. I think $5B offer is something to consider

  • Reply to

    Takeover imminent

    by birner80 Jun 16, 2016 11:35 AM
    biogemfinder biogemfinder Jun 17, 2016 12:38 PM Flag

    I hope EXEL does not make the same mistake that Medarex made a few years ago! The CTLA franchise and the PD1 franchise (among others) is the hottest technology (checkpoint inhibitors) or Immunomod out there. BMY is reaping huge benefits but the nitwits in charge of the company sold it too soon to line their own pockets rather than looking at shareholder value. EXEL should wait it out if no one comes to the table with anything less than $5B. Since Cabo appears to be very active compound and is likely to have "pan-activity" in multitude of tumors alone or in combination, I believe it will have similar or even better activity in earlier (1st line or second line) stages of prostate cancer. Its going to be one expensive clinical trial to go head-to-head with SOC treatments, but they should do smaller studies to establish this once they have more resources from new revenues. I think $5B offer is something to consider.

  • biogemfinder by biogemfinder Jun 9, 2016 12:13 PM Flag

    apparently happened on May 26th, if you pull up the chart for 1 year. While there will be forces (the warrant holders and shorts), trying to bring it down to their "desired" levels, I think other forces with deeper pockets and eye on the value jumping in. In the next quarter if the EU approval is secured and the revenues are growing impressively, then non of the shenanigans will work against the fundamentals and imminent profits....

  • I am sure it is a lot more complex that we think...hedging, arbitrage, warrants you name it...but its not simply joe/jane retailer shorting for a quick profit. whatever the reasons behind them, those reasons are no longer as relevant. In the next stage of Exeleixis as a company..it will be the rising revenues (not necessarily profits yet).

    Looks like,finally, Exel is transitioning into a commercial (and soon to be profitable) company less vulnerable to daily manipulation by MMs, HFs, shorts, etc...

  • Confluence of three events in a week or so will be interesting. Talk about the 2 HF names who sold all their holding way too early. Shows you you cannot follow HFs blindly as they have horrible record the last few years. I am glad they are gone and new more value type investors are jumping in. Golden cross should be around the corner..in a a day or 2. EMA decision should also be around the corner. To top it off, many technical traders will be piling on as they see a golden cross being formed with good news.

    We will see..

  • my estimate is that golden cross is about 2 weeks away and the next major resistance is around $7.00. I am glad that those 2 HFs are out and MF fool publicized that to show how wrong they were and kind of dumb. With solid news in trials results, and increasing revenue, quarter after quarter (although temporarily increasing costs due to marketing new drugs and for new indications), more value-type investors will be coming on board. The process will be slow but steady as they cant buy millions of shares overnight.

    Still over $10 by EY, and potentially $15 if shorts start getting nervous about a potential buyout.
    Stay long and strong my fellow "Exelexions"!!

  • biogemfinder biogemfinder Jun 1, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    once a fool..always a fool should MFs motto!! These clowns keep giving conflicting articles and deceive investors into thinking that they were wise as they made the right choices. FOOLS!

    They always cater to whoever pays more. Clearly the last article catered to the shorts or bond holders who dont want the stock to keep appreciating. But his is now lees than ideal for manipulation as better equipped mutual funds with deep pockets seem to have increased their interest in this stock!!

  • To me it sounds like a good buy signal.
    First, this thing has already happened, and whatever downward pressure it created, it is no longer there. So unless the naive retailers also start dumping in hordes..pps will start rising again...
    Second, these guys have been invested for many years (looks like more than 10 years), so they must have thought "I have most of my investment back already, and I am not going to wait around anymore and rather invest in other Hot stocks". Although for sure this is the wrong time to exit when all the good fortune is ahead of us and not behind.
    Third, Hedge Funds have had terrible record the last few years so it is unwise to follow their leads and intuition!

    Again, EXEL will be above $10 easily by the EY, if not $15/share

  • 50d MA will cross the 200d MA and then we are looking at $12 PPS before the end of this year. Possibly much higher due to SI and other institutions coming in causing bigger and quicker short squeeze. Someone needs to start "credible sounding" buyout rumors for the game to get started. Shorts have a mountain of worry in their hands going forward. Unwinding may be a little tricky now....

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