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Amgen Inc. Message Board

blackboxfund 506 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 5, 2013 4:57 PM Member since: May 8, 2012
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  • blackboxfund by blackboxfund Oct 1, 2013 11:54 AM Flag

    you are talented I know a father and son Hedge Fund manager team... last name of Pounds from CT any relation ?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • blackboxfund by blackboxfund Oct 1, 2013 11:09 AM Flag

    apparently a new round of buying for them and it is perverse that there is NO excitement from this filing
    they had big positions a few years ago I think ....

    Lyxor/Balyasny Atlas Enhanced Fund Limited

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • blackboxfund by blackboxfund Sep 30, 2013 10:34 AM Flag

    Pressures building in Chinese steel sector
    Arab News - 30/09/2013
    (MENAFN - Arab News) China's leviathan steel sector churned out 66.28 million tons of the stuff last month.
    That was 12.8 percent, or roughly 7.5 million tons, more than was produced in August 2012. Cumulative production so far this year has grown by 7.8 percent. This time last year the growth rate was a modest 2.9 percent.
    The strength of the sector has surprised analysts and jars with the dominant narrative of China slowdown in the rest of the industrial metals space.
    Ironically, though, just as markets such as copper take fresh heart from improving manufacturing indicators in China, the country's steel sector is showing increasing signs of stress.
    Re-adjustments of steel supply and demand in China have in the past often been short, brutish and nasty affairs, capable of transmitting shock waves into the iron ore market.
    There are good reasons for believing that a smoother adjustment process might be achievable this time around but the mounting pressures are becoming difficult to ignore.
    What's so remarkable about that August production rate is that it happened in August.
    Steel production in China has previously been highly seasonal, dipping in the hot summer months, just as it does in the rest of the world.
    But not this year.
    Annualized production was running at 770-780 million tons in July and August. The latest figures from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) show no let-up this month either with production over the middle of September running at 782 million tons annualized.
    So what has changed?
    Analysts at Jefferies argue that the break with the "normal" seasonal pattern may in part reflect changed producer behavior.
    Competition for market share among the country's major producers may have resulted in reduced maintenance downtime this year, while smaller mills "may have come to terms with the "new normal" of lower margins, and so maintained high output levels even for marginal gains."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The long/short funds have been given a new idea to play with ... long WLT short ACI ?

    Goldman Sachs assumes coverage on Arch Coal Inc (NYSE: ACI) with a Sell rating (down from Neutral) and $3 price target, suggesting 33% downside.

    Analyst Neil Mehta cited: "(1) among the highest leverage ratios and lowest returns under our coverage, (2) valuations near historical peak levels, (3) a thermal outlook less bullish than consensus, as coal plant retirements and relatively low PRB pricing will likely weigh on earnings and (4) below-average earnings growth, even if met coal prices recover above our forecasts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Goldman Sachs upgraded Walter Energy (NYSE: WLT) from Sell to Neutral with a price target of $15.00 (from $10.00).

    Analyst Neil Mehta cited improving risk/reward at met bottoms. He also notes short interest levels appear elevated, presenting risk of a reversal leading to a stock price increase.

    "As of September 1, short interest as a percent of the float for WLT was at 43% (per FactSet), the highest among any small cap stock under Goldman Sachs Equity Research coverage," Mehta notes. "Going into 2013, short interest was at only 12%, with dramatic increases over the last 4 months as met coal prices pulled back."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight on Walter Energy (NYSE: WLT). Analyst Evan Kurtz's long-term met target of $180 per ton implies massive upside for Walter, noted the report. Kurtz believes upside could be as high as 140% for Walter and 20% for Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • And his name is his majesty Walter Energy ! I keep thinking about the $240 per share buyout prices mentioned a few years ago, with the RAIN everything all the price targets can change in a flashflood !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You can appreciate that a 5%+ long must report to the World, but a 20+ million share short is anonymous where is your corrupt SEC ?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You know the HFShort paid the analysts off and tens of millions of shares short is SO convincing .They cannot be WRONG can they ? YES!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I have been accumulating Coal stocks for months now. Met prices are rising, China is growing again, no war in Syria and lastly Walter has refinanced its debts without dilution.

    A market crash due to the bs Politicians maybe but ...

    Coal is going to be the dominant source of energy in the future, there is no question natural gas reserves are depleting exponentially .

    A steel for WLT now... See you at $ 66.66

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • see Walters presentation for Keybank from 9/11/2013....

    improving pmi in europe and china...
    forward-looking euro zone PMI data showing the bloc's economy continuing to pick up pace.

    Markit's September Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) jumped to 52.1 from last month's 51.5, its highest since June 2011 and beating expectations for 51.9. New orders were at their fastest pace in over two years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I guess the Shorts will be waiting a long time for the BK filing now $100MM + Cash in hand and Asset Sales to come Only because of the Obamanation EPA news hitting are we not up big on this refinancing news Senior secured paper at this interest rate is a gift that will keep on giving

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This will not last ...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • $20 next stop...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • BlackBoxFund
    Sep. 18 at 3:17 PM

    $WLT 25 plus cents to the glass ceiling being broken I guess if you want to stay short it is OK you can always find another job !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • but do not let them see your negative posts on this board, or maybe you should just leave us bagholders alone.

    Sep. 18 at 2:30 PM

    $WLT the SHORT has been SHOT today. No rising rates mean EM Global growth for Yellens term of 10 years ? See you at $ 66.66

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The cost of hauling iron ore and coal along China’s coast rose to a 16-month high, adding to signs the nation’s demand is strengthening for the two commodities that generate the most demand for dry-bulk shipping.

    The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index, a measure of commodity transporting rates between the nation’s ports, advanced to 1,141.17 points on Sept. 13, a seventh weekly gain, according to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. The measure has advanced 8.2 percent since the start of the year.

    The increase is a sign of rising demand from China because coastal ships transport both domestic and imported cargoes to smaller Chinese ports from the nation’s bigger facilities, according to Pareto Securities AS, an Oslo-based investment bank. Imports of coal and iron ore are on course for a record this year, according to Clarkson Plc (CKN), the largest shipbroker. Rates for Capesize ships delivering both rose almost sixfold to $30,020 since the start of June, Baltic Exchange data show.

    “It is a clear sign of high domestic demand,” Eirik Haavaldsen, a shipping analyst at Pareto, said by e-mail today. “This results in stockpiles being quickly emptied, and a continued need for further international imports, thus increasing demand for international vessels.”

    Chinese stockpiles of rebar, the steel used to reinforce concrete, dropped to 6.25 million metric tons in the week ended Sept. 13, from 10.2 million tons in March, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information, a government-backed research company.

  • blackboxfund by blackboxfund Sep 18, 2013 9:05 AM Flag

    Dalian Commodity Exchange COKING COAL FUTURES up 2+% today to a recent high

    I also read that 90% of Chinese Coal miners are unprofitable at todays prices and many will shut down soon

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Duke Energy is one U.S. company at the leading edge of trying to make it profitable to use coal in a cleaner way. The power company recently completed construction on a massive coal gasification plant in Indiana, only recently green-lighted after years of being mired in controversy, largely over the plant's $3.5 billion price tag.. Honeywell, Shell and General Electric are other firms currently involved in coal-based syngas production.

    According to energy watchers, Duke's 618-megawatt project underscores how coal has reached a crossroads, amid a broad revival in fossil fuel production. Should the process of generating coal and gas synthetics pick up momentum, it could accomplish two feats: making coal more environmentally friendly, while putting new downward pressure on the price of crude.

    Oddly enough, coal demand is on the rise almost everywhere but the United States: In a December 2012 report, the International Energy Agency cited cheap gas for the drop in demand for coal. Still, the agency said that in 2017 the fuel will come "close to surpassing oil as the world's top energy source," burning about 1.2 billion tons per year by then.

    Nomura estimates that China – the world's largest coal importer – could invest as much as $160 billion in transforming coal into gas by 2020, while the U.S. could shovel around $25-30 billion into coal gasification.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I think that knowing all of the dangers tthe Chinese are rushing to build nuclear power plants in China It is a Crazy World !

    Instead of building cleaner coal fired power plants #$%$!

    from ZeroHedge today...

    Nuclear expert Arnie Gundersen and physician Helen Caldicott have both said that people should evacuate the Northern Hemisphere if one of the Fukushima fuel pools collapses. Gundersen said:

    Move south of the equator if that ever happened, I think that’s probably the lesson there.

    Former U.N. adviser Akio Matsumura calls removing the radioactive materials from the Fukushima fuel pools “an issue of human survival”.

    So the stakes in decommissioning the fuel pools are high, indeed.

    But in 2 months, Tepco – the knuckleheads who caused the accident – are going to start doing this very difficult operation on their own.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

171.28+0.60(+0.35%)Jul 28 4:00 PMEDT