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Amgen Inc. Message Board

blackboxfund 506 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 5, 2013 4:57 PM Member since: May 8, 2012
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  • Pl.tts assessments for most categories of met coal were
    lifted by higher indicative bids from Chinese buyers, and
    confirmed by a few recent transactions.
    Pl.tts assessed premium low-vol HCC 50 cents higher
    Tuesday at $146/mt CFR north China, up $4.50 from the
    lowest point seen July 15. Second-tier HCC, meanwhile, was
    unmoved at $134.50/mt CFR China.
    For premium hard coking coal, a deal was reportedly close
    to being signed at $147-149/mt CFR east China for one of
    Australia’s most sought-after prime low-vols, a level which
    seemed possible when taking into account repeated buy-side
    interest observed at $145/mt.
    For second-tier HCC, a producer said he could imagine

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 49,700 miles of pipeline should soakup the excess chinese steel capacity ...and this is On top of the new rairoad tracks anounced last week...It is too bad that here in the U.S. a $50 infrastructure proposal is the key to a grand bargain for Obama. the FED spends $85 billion a month supporting the criminal Bankers and we have to worry about our children driving over our bridges !

    BEIJING -- China will move to increase investment in subways and light rail networks as part of efforts to boost city infrastructure investment, the State Council said Wednesday.
    No further details on the investments were provided in the statement, which was published after a weekly State Council meeting chaired by President Li Keqiang.
    The State Council also said in the statement that China will complete construction of an 80,000-kilometer gas pipeline and renovation work on a 100, 000-kilometer piped heating network in the northern part of the country as of 2015.
    More investment from private companies will be allowed in public facilities as a way to improve city infrastructure, the State Council said in the statement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • So pricing is starting to firm up for the Australians and BHP...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • At least 25 reported + 25 naked = 50 million is really short

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Not just a Fund psition ...maybe something different !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A company like WLT was here way before Lip #$%$ was born ... the ML analyst girl/ sounded like Paris hiltons sister
    with her in depth questioning

    So i rant once in a while at the F ups that can destroy stock prices...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Market Trends

    Arch believes currently depressed metallurgical coal market trends are unsustainable over the long term. Global crude steel production is forecasted to increase 35 percent between 2012 and 2020, reaching 2 billion tonnes by the end of the decade. Increased utilization at existing steel plants and the projected build-out of new steel capacity will drive future metallurgical coal demand. Moreover, capital spending for future metallurgical coal supply projects is being curtailed and supply rationalization at existing metallurgical coal operations is underway.

    "Even with a near-term cautious outlook on global metallurgical coal markets, we're confident that supply will decline and demand will rebound over time," said Eaves. "Metallurgical coal output and capital spending levels industrywide are in the process of significant rationalization, setting the stage for the next market upswing as global economies begin to improve."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Singapore (Platts)--26Jul2013/529 am EDT/929 GMT

    A fairly new breed of bulk carrier is turning to be the darling of the Asian dry cargo market by promising more savings for charterers and shipowners thanks to higher carrying capacity and fuel efficiency, according to trade and industry sources this week.

    Launched in 2011, the Ultramax class bulker carrier -- designed to carry bulk cargoes including coal, iron ore, grain and cement -- is now preferred by coal traders and shipowners for its low hire and operating costs.

    Many dry market watchers feel the Ultramax vessels would make a good choice for coal trading over Supramax vessels due to a number of reasons. For one, Asia's burgeoning coal trade led by strong import appetite from China, India and Thailand would see a greater call for vessels with the capacity to carry the incremental volumes.

    Among Asian countries, China imported as much as 158 million mt of coal in total over January-June 2013, up 13% from the same period last year, the latest data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Or about half of the analysts at least have lowered their numbers already
    Which I think is good as long as they don't crash the stock much more
    This means their should'nt be many surprises in the earnings release

    Date Brokerage Firm Analyst New
    (06/2013) Old
    (06/2013) New
    (09/2013) Old

    2Q new 2Q old 3Q new 3Q old
    07-24-2013 Stifel Nicolaus Co., Inc. Not Identified -0.46 -0.34 -0.91 -0.72
    07-24-2013 Wells Fargo Not Identified -0.70 -0.45 -0.63 -0.39
    07-23-2013 Keybanc Capital Markets Not Identified -0.58 -0.31 -0.69 -0.82
    07-19-2013 Not Identified Not Identified -0.47 -0.47 -1.04 -0.91
    07-12-2013 Not Identified Not Identified -0.47 -0.44 -0.95 -0.49
    07-09-2013 Not Identified Not Identified -0.53 -0.24 -0.56 0.24
    06-17-2013 Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. Not Identified -0.35 -0.35 0.10 0.10
    05-07-2013 Simmons & Company International Not Identified -0.44 -0.32 -0.15 -0.11
    05-02-2013 Bb & T Capital Markets Not Identified -0.50 -0.91 -0.73 -0.22

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The coking coal benchmark contract for the third quarter fell to $145 a metric ton, the lowest level since 2009, when the terms were negotiated on an annual basis, Doyle Trading Consultants said today.

    BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest coking coal exporter, agreed to a price 16 percent below that of the previous quarter, according to the New York-based energy research firm, which specializes in coal.

    An 11 percent drop in the Australian dollar this year means the country’s producers of the steelmaking component are realizing a $9-per-metric-ton decline, compared with a $27 slide in the U.S., DTC said today.

    “Margins at U.S. suppliers are razor-thin, and any push from buyers for discounts to the benchmark will be met with production cuts,” Doyle said in a report.

  • I do not yet ... So that is where my focus is ...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Well,
    there could be a break in the overall market or a China/Met scare
    or More upside from the managements attempts to deal with the unpredictable but currently known MET pricing coupled with improving sentiment for Coal stocks for the last half of the year....
    Now, I know mangement is not ready for that matter or able to do an Insider BuyOut...
    They do not have enough shares and the Private Equity/Leveraged Loan market and Institutional shareholder base cannot support this type of transaction at this time ...
    So driving down the share price to grab the company IMHO is off the table at least for for now....It was one of my previous worries
    So what is the most likely scenario...
    It is expected that the East Coast FOB Met Coal price will rise and then WLT will continue to ramp production volumes and sales over the next 2 Qs into that rise ....
    Walter has no intention of giving up assets cheaply in this environment so be prepared
    for when they GET ANOTHER STRATEGIC offer from the larger players SOON
    Oh and the PRB Coal will all be very valuable when the NG hype runs out no meaningful exports of NG ARE expected by me, sorry to burst the" LNG ' bubble there is a short amongst others I do!
    In 2009 my group specialized in Capital market arbitrage , you know it was a brief time when 1000 of the largest Companies in the U.S. bonds traded at 20%+ per annum... It happens all the time Globally
    You do not look or care about the equity price when advising/playing with the most sophisticated investors in the world about a U.S. SENIOR SECURED ASSETS bonds and loans!
    WLT fixed their problem this week in that regard for awhile anyway, and even Goldylocks knows it ...they where just trapped by the event of the 5th covenant change and had to BS the market and sell discretionary assets to bomb the WLT stock price
    It is Late on Friday and I am venting about being blindsided by the GSShorts this week
    Do you know what I am talking about ???

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Goldman Sachs the Great Vampire Squid

    Coined in a 2009 Rolling Stone piece, writer Matt Taibbi famously wrote: "The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."

  • As I see it...A year of equity accumulation or divestiture for any name has been condensed down to a HFT program coupled with an AI news reading algorithm..
    I have been in the Squids main money management room and there is NO ONE there except the IT tech's to keep the computer system running !
    So if anything anywhere turns positive for Met Coal news and Walter sentiment ... in less than one second they will set the iginition switch to a BLASTOFF, which will be unprecedented in the trading history of Walter Energy !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • WHAT Institutional WLT shareholder anywhere in the WORLD is left to sell so that the short interest can COVER !
    Noone ... Nowhere... No How !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The loan covenant deal was a very good one and better than expected...
    Also the pre release of production,sales and cost reduction statements should have been viewed very positively and were for the most part by most of the WLT Street coverage...
    The problem was the three firms that are working for the short interest.. they did not careto follow that reality at all as they had pre planned the price target cuts just in to time stop the potential upside breakout above $15...
    Trapping the shorts, anyway that is how I understand it
    We will see if this Coal and Iron Ore sector relative strength can last for five more trading days
    which obviously will be supportive even if MET pricing does not show a turn upside in the next few days

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • With little rain in Mongolia and another big monsoon in April - October 2014 in Australia we could see $300/mt
    sometime in the next year IMHO

    So watch the Global weather channel as expansion capital has dried up for the next few years for all mining companies ... no matter what the Giant Squid says ....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • But my children and grandchildren will... I now take a guess what the main Energy source will be !

    World energy use is expected to increase 56% between 2010 and 2040, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) newly released International Energy Outlook 2013.

    In a shift from the status quo, demand over the next three decades will overwhelmingly originate from developing and emerging economies. Non-OECD countries are expected to increase energy consumption by 90%, compared to just 17% for OECD countries. Worldwide, industries are expected to continue to consume more than half of total energy demanded.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Now will China import alot more from Australia AND Western Canada? ... that is the macro question

    reserves situated in north and northwestern China. Some 65% of all proven recoverable reserves occur in the provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, among which, Shanxi ranks No. 1 in coal reserves
    China's plan to rapidly expand large coal mines and power plants in its arid northern and western provinces threatens to drain precious water supply and could trigger a severe water crisis
    China intends to boost coal production in provinces including Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Ningxia, with output in those areas expected to reach 2.2 billion tons, or 56 percent of the country's forecast production of 3.9 billion tons, by 2015.
    As part of the country's major overhaul of its power generation strategy, Beijing also plans to build 16 large coal-fired power stations in those provinces by 2015. Total installed capacity for the plants is expected to exceed 600 gigawatts.
    Coal mining and coal-fired power generation are extremely water-intensive projects.
    Water demand created by this energy strategy, along with the development of coal-related industries in these area, will consume at least 9.98 billion cubic meters of water by 2015 - equivalent to one sixth of the annual total water volume of China's largest Yellow River, Greenpeace said in a report on 8/12/2012.
    marketwatch today
    a day after they rallied in response to Beijing’s announcement of planned investments in railways Wednesday.
    The two companies’ Shanghai-listed shares, which had also advanced Thursday, overcame early losses to finish the day up 0.4% and 1.1%, respectively.
    “We believe that markets have not fully priced in Wednesday’s statement by the Chinese State Council, introducing stimulus measures. ... The measures are likely to be followed by further steps ensuring a modest rebound of economic momentum” in the second half of 2013, said C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I would think that they could find a strategic buyer for their block of stock, what I read yesterday was most of their investors are at least giving them until the end of the year.. to liquidate 4 billion of holdings

165.4739+0.0239(+0.01%)10:21 AMEDT