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United Parcel Service, Inc. Message Board

blackcombgrouse 1192 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 29, 2016 3:02 PM Member since: May 26, 2007
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  • At the end of this most recent quarter MCD Tangible net asset value was only $1.293B divided by 877M shares
    My calculator says each share is worth $1.47 in nert assets.
    So that means its stock is selling a price to book in tangible assets of over 80
    Warren Buffet's success was based on buying near book value so how much would he have paid for MCD shares .No more than $5

  • blackcombgrouse by blackcombgrouse May 26, 2016 2:10 PM Flag

    From Dec 2013 to Dec 2015 net income fell by 18.9% according to figures on Yahoo Finance .
    From the Sept 2015 quarter to March 2016 quarter net income fell 16% .
    Meanwhile the stock jumped 50% as Income fell by that 16% .
    That tells me that there are more clueless "investors" in this market than I have seen in the last 40 years od stock market trading

  • I am sad to see so many on this board that have so little experience in the stock market.
    This message board seems to consist of those that are in a dreamworld , when a post arrives that says anything negative about MCDs they give it a thumbs down .
    You will learn as I did 16 years ago how dangerous it is to your finacial health to stay in a market that is about to plunge just as it did in 1987 , 22% in one day on the DOW .
    I speak from over 40 Yrs experience in Stocks
    How low will MCD go when everyone trips over each other as they attempt to avoid losing their shirt ?

  • Reply to

    Q1 2016 was a disaster

    by blackcombgrouse May 17, 2016 11:39 AM
    blackcombgrouse blackcombgrouse May 17, 2016 1:25 PM Flag

    More from the disastrous Q1 2016 . How about a stock that is selling almost 30 times its book value
    Valuation Measures
    Market Cap (intraday)5: 112.56B
    Enterprise Value (May 17, 2016)3: 133.85B
    Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 24.64
    Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2017)1: 20.68
    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 2.22
    Price/Sales (ttm): 4.49
    Price/Book (mrq): 29.46
    Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 5.28
    Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 14.83

  • blackcombgrouse by blackcombgrouse May 17, 2016 11:39 AM Flag

    MCD stock rose 50% from August .
    But check out the balance sheet and income statements on Yahoo fiinance for the latest quarter here are the important details .
    Tangible assets fell in those 6 months by 78%.
    Shareholder equity fell by 53% .
    Income from Q3 2015 to Q1 2016 fell by 16% .
    There is another huge drop coming in this stock , initial target $110

  • SBUX TTM eps = $1.52
    Divide that into current price and SBUX PE is an astounding 37.39
    When the penny drops that we are in a bear market and buying the dips is the worst thing you can do (unless you want to be on the steets) this stock will plunge down to where it was last October $36 .
    Even then It will still be overvalued at a PE of 23 when Starbucks clients start buying regular coffee instead of the overpriced coffee "specialties" and their profits take a wack as a result .

  • blackcombgrouse by blackcombgrouse Dec 17, 2013 4:31 PM Flag

    streetinsider has 3 more analyst downgrades on KSU that are not on yahoo .
    Buckingham Research , , Bank of America and Stephens .
    High target also much different at a high of $107 from BMO a low of $74 from Goldman

  • blackcombgrouse blackcombgrouse Nov 12, 2013 8:04 PM Flag

    A buyout ? Mexican momentum will only be there if demand is growing . Where does the demand come from , those on food stamps ?
    No analyst within the last 2 year rates KSU as a buy but there are many sells and holds and their average target is more than $30 below KSU's present stock price

  • blackcombgrouse by blackcombgrouse Nov 11, 2013 1:37 PM Flag

    So far they have sold in small quantities 131 K wait until those 10.5 M in T Rowe Price or Vanguard's 7M shares are sold .
    When anyone of those funds exits look out below you momentum speculators .

  • blackcombgrouse by blackcombgrouse Nov 11, 2013 1:18 PM Flag

    Compare streetinsider ratings with yahoo . there are 3 sells 9 neutrals and only 1 buy compared to yahoo 3 strong buys and 5 buys on yahoo .
    Those strong buys and buys must be very old ones because neither yahoo or streetinsider have had a buy rating since sept 2011

  • blackcombgrouse blackcombgrouse Nov 4, 2013 2:37 PM Flag

    What Faith in the FED's abilities .
    Bernanke took office replacing Greenspan who had already created a stock bubble which collapsed .
    Now Bernanke after creating 2 bubbles a housing bubble and a stock bubble suddenly knows what he is doing ??

  • blackcombgrouse blackcombgrouse Nov 4, 2013 2:18 PM Flag

    When it falls to the $145 lvel it will not find much support until it reaches $130 where it traded for almost a year , the $140 are was just a quick transition

  • blackcombgrouse by blackcombgrouse Nov 4, 2013 2:08 PM Flag

    IBM has after deducting its cash of $12B a total of $26B in debt . Its dividend pays 2%.
    MSFT after deducting its total debt has $63B in cash , its dividend pays 2.4%..
    Here is a difficult question .
    Which of the two has a more secure dividend ?
    compare Price to book ratio IBM = 9.79 , MSFT = 3.63 .
    Conclusion .
    IBM is so overvalued even the most novice investor should recognize it.

  • blackcombgrouse blackcombgrouse Nov 4, 2013 1:50 PM Flag

    Wall st speculators have got PE on the brain .
    At this juncture of the stockmarket PE is meaningless for a number of reasons .
    1. Fancy accounting is one main reason , using non GAAP methods companies can hide their real results very easily through tax loopholes that come back to bite them later .
    2. Shrinkiing sales can decimate earnings
    3. Book value , Buffets favourite measure is much more useful IBM is almost 10 times its book value , that is extremely expensive by normal standards . Using that alone IBM's stock could fall in half and still be expensive
    4. Huge debt to the tune of $36B ..

  • blackcombgrouse blackcombgrouse Nov 4, 2013 1:03 PM Flag

    how long have you been investing ?
    A strange as may sound to the ears of a novice investor / speculator when the whole of wall st from traders to analysts to economist are so complacent that they feel the market can not go down , it will collapse .
    That complacency has always been so at the top of a bubble .

  • blackcombgrouse by blackcombgrouse Nov 4, 2013 12:38 PM Flag

    Wonder how IBM can keep its earnings from crashing besides its share buy backs ?
    Nearly every country where IBM operates has some similar tax problem with IBM .
    What happens when the taxes from intervening years are examined ?
    2 downgrades last month

  • Reply to

    KSU more overpriced than NETFLIX

    by blackcombgrouse Oct 29, 2013 3:45 PM
    blackcombgrouse blackcombgrouse Oct 30, 2013 8:22 PM Flag

    OK .
    All the hype on KSU is based on the trade with Mexico , particularly their auto business from the those new plants expected in a year or two . That is the reason why KSU has a PS ratio almost 3 times as high as NSC and CTX two other railroads
    Even UNP is much lower at 3.25 times sales . One look at UNP\'s chart tells me that PS is going to get a lot smaller very soon ..
    The 10 year chart shows that KSU with its 1,000 % climb since 2009 is far more dangerous looking than Salesforce a fast growing tech in the Cloud business
    I see another huge problem with KSU's scenario because the recent buying binge on new cars is about to collapse because we have the same symptoms we had in 2008 . Huge disounts so that auto companies can clear their inventory .Remember Bernanke has created his second bubble in just 7 years since taking office and it is all a mirage of growth because he still cannot stop his ponzi scheme even though he admits it hasn't worked
    If you want yet another reason take a look at what analysts say and I am not referring to the foolish analysts .Their average target is $87 and there is only one buy and 3 sells , highest target $107 lowest $74 goldman sachs .

  • blackcombgrouse blackcombgrouse Oct 30, 2013 12:31 AM Flag

    Larry Fink of Blackrock who oversees more assets than Bernanke at $4.2 Trillion will give her fits .

  • blackcombgrouse by blackcombgrouse Oct 30, 2013 12:17 AM Flag

    Not if you compare its price to sales ratio with other companies .
    AMZN PS ratio is only 2.34 compared to railroad companies such as Kansas City southern which has a PS ratio of 5.86 .or UNP at 3.25.
    Or how about Netflix at 4.49 ?
    All that AMZN has to do is increase its profit margins from a ridiculously low 0.19% and its profit could rocket higher . Disclosure I have no AMZN holding and no short position

  • blackcombgrouse by blackcombgrouse Oct 29, 2013 3:45 PM Flag

    Don't believe me ?
    Using one of the most important measuring sticks price to sales ratio .NFLX = 4.49 , KSU = 5.83

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