And you have hogged 6 of the top seven spots after taking into account ignoring them. You are behaving like ericfn - protesting too much. Why?
You are now on ignore too.
Thank you for that helpful analysis. Caused me to do some reading.
UGAZ: 3 times the price of natural gas
BOIL: 2 times the price of natural gas
UNG: 1 times the price of natural gas
All three are exchange-traded funds subject to contango and backwardation in addition to management fees. They are not exactly comparable (e.g. UNG holds some Treasuries and BOIL is based upon Bloomberg index).
Where is the news?
Are you talking about this from Feb 2014?
"China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) announced the discovery of a large natural gas field in Sichuan province. The reserve, discovered by CNPC’s subsidiary PetroChina, could hold 440 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, 308 bcm of which is technically recoverable."
So to compare the $2.62 2012 price at this time of year to the price today, you would multiply $2.62 by .8261 which is $2.16? In any case, the question is whether all storage capacity is used up. What does that mean? Producing wells are turned off. Then we continue to wait until the overage is eaten up then the producing wells are turned back on and then the DUC's are completed and THEN the price can begin to climb. Comments/corrections to this are appreciated.
Thou dost protest too much. This is just another alias filling the board with junk and you are hereby ignored.
What storage data? The net build of 73 BCF this week? Or the total supply?
I got out at $17.75 for a few dollars profit but having my peace of mind back is priceless. This is scary business. I bought 5200 shares and the next day it dropped about 20%. So I have been sweating it out, hoping that the bottom was not in the past because I am confident generally like everyone that the overage will eventually be used up and price will rise. I will wait a while and catch my breath and then go really small with UGAZ and hold for a while if necessary.
Does that put DGAZ above $18?
Congratulations. I have been in at $26 so this move does not mean much but I am in for the decade long haul you mention.
It is trading in accordance with the price of natural gas. I agree that the price of natural gas is not responding to fundamentals. Hopefully, it drops drastically this weekend or next week.
How do DUC's play into this? For example:
“The reason we have deferred the completions is to really substantially increase the rate of return,” Bill Thomas, EOG’s chairman and chief executive, acknowledged in an investment conference call. “We want to make sure that we allow prices to firm up.”
To make sure that the price of natural gas firms up, a lot of the surplus will have to be eaten up, I would imagine. All that needs to be done is complete the wells and there is a lot more natural gas ready to produce without the need of rigs.
Please correct me anyone if I am not understanding this correctly. Thank you.
I like the part about DGAZ.
When you say rigging, you mean manipulation and if that is the case, why would the rigging end today?
Given near term weather outlook was certain that there would be a drop in price yesterday or today. And I was certainly wrong.
thank you. Looked it up - the pipeline transports 1.3 Bcf/d to help understand how it can impact the market.
I do not know if yesterday was a deeper than normal correction as this is my second trade in ugaz/dgaz. I do not think it is time to flip back to ugaz. But don't listen to me as I have experienced two massive drops the day after each of my two trades.
As I am under with D at 17.70, I am just hoping this week will get me out. The heady bullish talk and certainty that natural gas is now on a long climb upward oddly gives me confidence that we have not seen a bottom. Comparing to 2012, this is the week that the price started to climb. What is different about this year versus 2012? The difference between the price of natural gas and a stock is the unpredictability of the weather, making the analysis about NOW and not about low rig count and the certainty that eventually the overage will be used up.