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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

bocamp1 303 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2016 1:09 PM Member since: Oct 13, 1998
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  • Reply to

    The FDA-eye trials-changing endpoints-Aerie Pharma

    by bocamp1 May 28, 2016 7:21 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 May 29, 2016 9:54 AM Flag

    Sno, the example using Aerie was to show the moving endpoints the FDA accommodates now for eye indications as well as the selloff which proved to be very temporary and misguided. It has a lot of similarities with what we will see with price action here.
    If you choose to focus on the glaucoma issue and the fact that Aerie has a 1/2 billion market cap that is fine. Certainly, glaucoma would be a great addition to the rgrx pipeline if recent trial shows efficacy.

  • Here is just another example of the FDA's increased accomodation in the Eye indication. We have seen it in the relaxed endpoints for Lifitegrast and Visomitin for dry eye. And here is another example in glaucoma. It is also a provides a very likely path for stock action here:
    AERI is a 500 million market cap stock that has only 2 products in clinical development, both in the eye area. It has no revs. The most advanced product is for glaucoma (P3). Last spring it missed it primary endpoint for non-inferiority against the standard of care, but(like rgrx) had many good secondary points. Did the market care about the positive secondaries? No. Shares tanked 70%. Then while working on another P3 for same indication it lobbied the FDA to change the ON GOING trial endpoint to the one hit by the failed trial. Press release below:

    The biotech announced this morning that the FDA had provided written approval to change the primary endpoint for its second Phase III study--Rocket 2--"to include patients with baseline intraocular pressures ranging from above 20 mmHg (millimeters of mercury) to below 25 mmHg. The former range for the primary endpoint of above 20 mmHg to below 27 mmHg will now represent a secondary endpoint range for Rocket 2."

    Shares rallied 50% that day and are still going higher. The moral of the story is that the our short term reaction may not last very long if the FDA keeps its accomodative stance on eye indications. And, CAE is likely to fall by the wayside. And, as i have said before, emotional longs selling on current rgrx endpoints are going to find themselves under invested here very soon, just like AERIE.

  • Reply to

    PFE's bid for Anacor

    by bocamp1 May 16, 2016 3:28 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 May 27, 2016 4:39 PM Flag

    Crazy the bmrn is still independant. CEO must be a real PIA as he has rebuffed all offers; and you know there have been more than a few in the last years. But, it will happen. With the new political headwinds around a Hillary win, this may just be the motivation for CEO to cash out...............Be long and patient.

  • Reply to

    Well, at least he tried.

    by snogreen May 27, 2016 12:04 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 May 27, 2016 3:38 PM Flag

    Geezer, you are like a mad old bulldog. Who gives a #$%$? The size of the coverts pales in comparision to the millions of shares owned by JJ, McNay, Goldstein, sigma tau, the koreans. That is the vested interest that will be protected.
    If you dont believe that then SELL, and do us all a favor.

  • bocamp1 by bocamp1 May 27, 2016 2:12 PM Flag

    Takeout back on the table.
    8000 july 10 calls, most done on the offer of .2. All new positions....OI=Zero

  • Reply to

    A complete farce

    by hennypenny686 May 27, 2016 1:14 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 May 27, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    Have you not seen one of these types of PR's before? It is standard fare and little else, other than they know of no reason for decline, is ever provided. It accomplished exactly what is was supposed to do; just inform, in a legal fashion, that no bad news is being held back.
    If you want more, try and read a 10Q.

  • Reply to

    New Letter Out

    by bocamp1 May 27, 2016 12:03 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 May 27, 2016 12:29 PM Flag

    Stock action here was not caused by MM's, it was the result of new Rodman longs and some emotional long timers who think they can trade for pennies in the most illiquid of stocks. Its a joke when a stock has a 10 cent spread sometimes and a 5000 dollar trade can take stock down over 10 cents that anyone would have the penny mindset here. But. some longs here are their own worst enemy, and you know who you are.
    Have some conviction with the valuation here based on the facts of Gtree valuatuon, Lifitegrast valuation and Visomitin valuation.

  • bocamp1 by bocamp1 May 27, 2016 12:03 PM Flag

    Even on sale by stupid retail is over

  • Reply to

    Weak Longs Capitulating

    by bocamp1 May 26, 2016 6:00 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 May 27, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    That patent is obviously very important to the present value of the JV. RGRX has no money to contiune to pursue, and GTREE is going to foot the bill for application. All parties make out; gtree, rgrx, and the JV if patent is awarded.

  • Reply to

    When does the unlocking of value begin...?

    by thesmalls May 27, 2016 6:16 AM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 May 27, 2016 10:00 AM Flag

    Still many unknowns, but seems like a bottom here

  • The stock is now up in total for the last 2 days, with a 3% up move yesterday on normal volume. It looks like the volume peaked on selloff at around a low of 15k with 700k of volume. In the US market, that would mark a volume reversal. In any event, GTree was hit with about a 30% loss off trial news while rgrx is off over 50%, if you consider yesterdays interday lows.
    I thinks also news will have to be coming soon, as cash position can not be ignored. There are some deep pocketed owners of little rgrx who have a vested interest in keeping rgrx funded through next trial(and NK results). If you believe, as i do, that they will not allow BK and loss of rights to tb4, stock represents value again.

  • Small dollar volume selling driving down stock price. It doesnt take much to knock off 10 mil in market cap. This reminds me of the drive below 10 cents. The sky is falling and BK is near. It didnt pay to sell then, it will not now. RGRX, for reasons stated, will not go BK, and selling into weakness here would only pay if it did so. But, emotion has always ruled retail. Expect big bids to steal shares at a quarter if retail is stupid enough to give it up.

  • Reply to

    JJ Should Be Getting Word Out Here

    by bocamp1 May 26, 2016 2:02 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 May 26, 2016 4:29 PM Flag

    "My guess is JJ and Goldstein have been approached many times before and are instead, holding out until they can unlock a much higher valuation than is currently being offered."

    Thats funny. They are doing a hell of a job..LOL
    Interesting you use the term "virtual" company. That is, in fact, the first time that term has been used here, yet it is the exact phrase that JJ himself used to describe RGRX years ago in a presentation. This leads me to believe that you either work for company or are jj or goldstein or someone close to them. Whatever, if your sentiments are those of management, they are beyond incompetent and out of touch given the way they have limped along these last many years.

  • Reply to

    JJ Should Be Getting Word Out Here

    by bocamp1 May 26, 2016 2:02 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 May 26, 2016 2:41 PM Flag

    Look sno, this is easy PR. And the difference between this one and all the others is that we just had our most extensive, late stage trial. It was nuanced, with many positive implications. This begs for further explanation to an audience that could become investors. And it doesnt take many to get stock higher as we have seen. Your Rodman idea is fine, but this would be a great place to start. A no brainer. And he could take Goldstein along.
    The point here is that these results deserve exposure. What are you doing for shareholders JJ? That is the question you are obligated to answer

  • We just had interesting trial results. Why not present here in NYC the first week of June? This is a nice conference with a ton of little companies in the health sector. Come on JJ, we realize that we cant spend alot of money on PR, but here is a perfect example of showing off our trial results?? What are you doing??

    The Marcum MicroCap Conference is dedicated to providing a forum where publicly traded companies with less than $500 million in market capitalization can network with the investment community. The 2016 Conference will be two full days with feature presentations by CEOs and CFOs from seven principal industry sectors, expert panels moderated by industry leaders, and the opportunity to meet with management of presenting companies on a one-on-one basis. Marcum is proud to again partner with KCSA Strategic Communications to present the 2016 Marcum MicroCap Conference

  • bocamp1 bocamp1 May 26, 2016 11:25 AM Flag

    One other thought on Gtree filing patent outside the JV; If final plan is to acquire rgrx in its entirety, why bother to put in JV? It would just add to the cost of JV , when either way, in the JV or outside, Gtree is the one paying for patent.
    Consolidate all patents and IP with rgrx when bought.

  • bocamp1 bocamp1 May 26, 2016 10:40 AM Flag

    And how many shares do each own, genius? And how many share does gtree own? Or Sigma Tau? So, going bk would make them richer? Geezer, go take a nap.

  • bocamp1 bocamp1 May 26, 2016 10:27 AM Flag

    For the second time geezer, you can not change the chemical structure of TB4 and expect to have the FDA consider it the same as the "old" TB4 in terms of previous approved trials. New trials would have to be done from P1. That is no small expense, not even mentioning the time delay for Gtree.

  • bocamp1 bocamp1 May 26, 2016 9:12 AM Flag

    You would have to be a chemist and a lawyer to know 100%. What is a material change, and does FDA need a material change to say compound (tb4) would require new trials. But, the FDA doesnt look kindly at any change. I have seen this in some medical device companies that made small changes and ran into trouble.
    And remember, we are dealing with the dysfunctional FDA. The same government agency that sets acceptable protocals for a trial, and then when met, change them and refuses to approve a drug(amrn). They are being sued for that one.
    So, if GTree thinks they have end run around current TB4, they had better take a hard look. More than likely they are just trying another angle to get patent to work with rgrx, as they own a substantial amount of shares here also.

  • Reply to

    CardioPET news

    by onebarkmill May 25, 2016 10:13 AM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 May 25, 2016 8:50 PM Flag

    Sept 24th? Give me a break. Where's the china news there, doc? You are going to be demoted to doc of NO value.

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