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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

bulletproofportfolio 57 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 10, 2016 11:08 PM Member since: Aug 7, 2009
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  • Reply to

    I say cut the dividend to zero......

    by seasonedinvestor79 Mar 10, 2016 9:52 PM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Mar 10, 2016 11:08 PM Flag

    You should look at the conversion language. The way I read it, if the distribution on common units is reduced, the amount of units available on conversion is likewise reduced.

  • I honestly don't think that the majority of ETE unitholders and WMB shareholders have any idea what is going on, so the following is my take on recent events and the ETE/WMB deal in general. I posted this on the ETE board earlier:

    I think what most people are failing to grasp is that this offering is a move by Kelcy Warren simply to buy time. This is not time for an unknown, but rather time for ETP to finish the massive capital deployment that is underway right now. That massive amount of capital is going to start generating a massive amount of cash flow starting in mid-to-late 2017, and at that point no one is going to care about what happened in late 2015 or early 2016.

    ETP is the single most important source of cash flow to ETE and ETE is going to do everything it can to protect ETP and its distribution--that's what the offering was about (in addition to protecting ETE's own distribution). That's precisely ETE's role as GP of ETP and also why it gets 50% of all of ETP's distributions as IDRs in addition to what it gets from the units it owns outright.

    WMB has the piece of the puzzle that ETE has been lacking; i.e., a big pipe to the northeast. The timing of the deal is terrible, but the deal makes sense and will be a game-changer when consummated.

    I think this is one of those rare moments where a very complex capital structure is obscuring something really obvious. Less

  • Reply to

    I say cut the dividend to zero......

    by seasonedinvestor79 Mar 10, 2016 9:52 PM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Mar 10, 2016 10:15 PM Flag

    They are not screwing with the equity! You could have picked up units today at a price very close to what the insiders are going to pay and you would also get ALL OF YOUR DISTRIBUTIONS, which the insiders won't get for over two years!

    The units are yielding about 15% and I don't think the distribution is currently at risk. Kelcy may indeed be taking one for the team this time (he'll be okay, don't worry).

  • bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Mar 10, 2016 9:55 PM Flag

    ETE's unit price and attendant trading volatility haven't been rational since December. I've never seen volatility like this. One can let market sentiment (and probably a major dose of algorithmic trading) scare one off or one can use it to one's advantage.

    Look at the trading volume in ETE over the last four months, compare it to the average volume in 2014 and ask yourself: Is the exponential increase in trading volume due to a bunch of would-be business owners having a massive case of indecision or is it more likely due to opportunistic traders and algorithm driven trading models?

    When I buy a "stock" I am buying an interest in a business and I think this is a great business selling at a great price.

  • I think what most people are failing to grasp is that this offering is a move by Kelcy Warren simply to buy time. This is not time for an unknown, but rather time for ETP to finish the massive capital deployment that is underway right now. That massive amount of capital is going to start generating a massive amount of cash flow starting in mid-to-late 2017, and at that point no one is going to care about what happened in late 2015 or early 2016.

    ETP is the single most important source of cash flow to ETE and ETE is going to do everything it can to protect ETP and its distribution--that's what the offering was about (in addition to protecting ETE's own distribution). That's precisely ETE's role as GP of ETP and also why it gets 50% of all of ETP's distributions as IDRs in addition to what it gets from the units it owns outright.

    WMB has the piece of the puzzle that ETE has been lacking; i.e., a big pipe to the northeast. The timing of the deal is terrible, but the deal makes sense and will be a game-changer when consummated.

    I think this is one of those rare moments where a very complex capital structure is obscuring something really obvious.

  • bulletproofportfolio by bulletproofportfolio Mar 10, 2016 1:09 AM Flag

    Is the increase in unit count roughly 140 Million new units over the 2.4 Billion (or so) that would otherwise be outstanding if the WMB deal closes? If so, that's about six percent, which isn't too bad a price to pay to protect the distribution for two years. The deal terms are somewhat confusing to me, so if anyone could confirm or correct my analysis I'd appreciate it.

    The insiders also got a great deal and I think the preferred status of their future distributions is a bit excessive. I think many other unit holders would have jumped at a chance to participate in the offer without any preference, which makes me think the insiders got a bit greedy.

  • Reply to

    So many idiots on this board!

    by bulletproofportfolio Apr 25, 2013 5:53 PM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Apr 26, 2013 12:07 AM Flag

    I never said he intended to help. What I think happened (and I don't know the author) is that he saw what he deemed an extremely overvalued asset, shorted it, and then published an article describing why its overvalued and profited--nothing wrong with that at all. I have no position in this stock, but I think his analysis is spot on.

    I loosely follow this issue because a couple of years ago a good friend of mine asked my opinion on WHX (he LOVED the dividend yield and had ZERO understanding of how the trust worked). I advised him to stay away and even tried to explain the proper analysis of when it might be worthwhile to buy this trust. He never told me what he did, but I'm pretty sure he ignored my advice, bought the "great" dividend yield, and has probably lost more than 50% (inclusive of dividends received) of his investment.

    Looks like there are plenty of folks like him who will lose even more.

  • bulletproofportfolio by bulletproofportfolio Apr 25, 2013 5:53 PM Flag

    Unbelievable how many completely ignorant fools are blaming an author for explaining what they should have known before they ever considered buying this wasting asset.

  • bulletproofportfolio by bulletproofportfolio Mar 27, 2013 12:38 AM Flag

    TEF management seems quite inept at dealing with the company's capital structure, debt, and dividend. The company eliminated the dividend and I think most shareholders thought that was a good move given the issues with any debt coming out of Spain. Then the company says it's going to reinstate the dividend this year--a questionable move as far as I am concerned, but so be it. Now the company says it's selling treasury shares to help pay back debt--and at absolutely the worst possible time given it was concurrent with the Cyprus meltdown. Predictably, the shares are down nearly double digits in two days.

    So, who is actually in charge of this mess and why is he/she/they still in charge? TEF has some great franchises, but it needs at least marginally competent management to help those franchises thrive.

  • bulletproofportfolio by bulletproofportfolio Mar 4, 2013 5:02 PM Flag

    It's been on a tear with pretty good volume lately and I'm wondering if anyone has any thoughts. Nobody posts on its board so I thought I would ask here. Thanks!

  • bulletproofportfolio by bulletproofportfolio Nov 14, 2012 1:59 PM Flag

    I haven't had a chance to listen to the presentation--anyone have any insight into these moves?

  • bulletproofportfolio by bulletproofportfolio Aug 15, 2012 11:41 PM Flag

    Beat on earnings and revs; almost doubled the dividend...I love it! Chambers has been a fabulous CEO and a horrible CEO. Now that he's getting CSCO back to basics, I'd say he's tilting toward fabulous again.

    Nice Q, nice shareholder remuneration. Well done all around.

  • Reply to

    Dividend Amt?

    by rdravin Aug 15, 2012 12:22 PM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Aug 15, 2012 1:04 PM Flag

    No, it doesn't. RIO pays dividends twice a year.

  • Reply to

    BUT what IF the GOVT. takes TEF Over?

    by taffy123414 Jul 23, 2012 11:25 AM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Jul 26, 2012 5:19 PM Flag

    You're right about my comment being acerbic and nasty. Sincere apologies for that--I should have taken a deep breath before hitting the "post message" button.

  • Reply to

    Anyone crunch numbers?

    by schroe_us Jul 25, 2012 5:03 PM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Jul 25, 2012 10:28 PM Flag

    You don't have to crunch any numbers to figure this out. Free cash flow was about 1.7 Billion euros for the first six months of the year.

  • Reply to

    BUT what IF the GOVT. takes TEF Over?

    by taffy123414 Jul 23, 2012 11:25 AM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Jul 25, 2012 10:21 PM Flag

    The flat-out ignorance on this board is astounding! The US government didn't "take over" GM. It provided financing to GM when nobody else would and prevented the company from being LIQUIDATED! I know you dumbf**k tea party, uneducated, racist slobs would have rather lost our auto industry and millions of jobs just to spite Obama/unions/whatever, but thankfully you scumbags weren't in power and thus we still have a decent domestic manufacturing base.

    Why are you even posting on a finance board? Shouldn't you be looking for Muslim extremists in the State Department or whatever the latest lunacy Bachman has cooked up?

  • Reply to

    BUT what IF the GOVT. takes TEF Over?

    by taffy123414 Jul 23, 2012 11:25 AM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Jul 25, 2012 10:07 PM Flag

    WTF are you talking about? Your only fear should be your tenuous grasp on reality.

  • Reply to

    Apple's hobby TV out sells signature Xbox!

    by obadidos1 Jul 25, 2012 6:51 PM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Jul 25, 2012 10:01 PM Flag

    You are just flat out wrong. Windows 7 is the best operating system on the planet (and the fastest selling by far). Kinect is one of the most significant technology advancements ever--and it's utility goes way beyond Xbox. Office is "old hat"? WTF are you talking about? You obviously didn't read the last earnings report because Office killed it. I assume you've also never used a Windows Phone, but it's (Samsung Focus S) my primary phone and by far the best mobile device I've ever used.

    Nevermind MSFT's server and tools business, their cloud platform (Azure), and that they will likely dominate the living room for the forseeable future. Seems to me that you are the one with no talent.

  • Reply to

    Apple's hobby TV out sells signature Xbox!

    by obadidos1 Jul 25, 2012 6:51 PM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio Jul 25, 2012 9:24 PM Flag

    The Xbox 360 went on sale in 2005 and that's NOT A TYPO...2005!!! It's STILL selling like crazy. AAPL is a great company and competitor, but I think MSFT is going to give them a serious run for their money: Windows 8, Windows Tablets, Xbox 8, and, yes, Windows Phone 8 (not a lot of market share for Windows Phone yet, but it's a fantastic mobile OS). MSFT is gunning for the total experience: from the office to the living room and their recent products has been, quite frankly, awesome.

  • Reply to

    A Shareholder's Question For HP Employees

    by rxonman May 23, 2012 5:37 PM
    bulletproofportfolio bulletproofportfolio May 23, 2012 9:53 PM Flag

    Your questions should be directed to four (some current, some former) HP employees: Fiorina, Hurd, Apoteker, and now Whitman. They should also be directed to the Board of Directors. I don't think most rank and file employees had much influence in debacles such as paying 10X sales for Autonomy (right after the Palm acquisition went so well, no less).

    My view is this company is suffering from terrible management and terrible oversight by the Board. But why should any of them care? They get paid handsomely for repeated failures, while their employees and shareholders suffer the consequences.

    P.S. I apologize in advance for spelling/grammar errors--I only have one useful hand at the moment and it's not my dominant one.

ETP
40.00-0.06(-0.15%)Aug 30 4:01 PMEDT