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burnaka 95 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 14, 2016 2:44 AM Member since: May 19, 2010
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  • 160K shares. IS that the big DILUTION being spewed here. I also NOTED the price of the OPTIONS as a BAD thing? Far higher than the 2007 options at 1.25 eh. This MASSIVE 160k share option is in the money at 10, out of the money at 9.99. So NOT CHEAP OTIONS at ALL. 1.25 is cheap, 9.99 was setting the price of the options at current market. For insiders to make money THESE INCENTIVE options need the share price to rise.

    A ton of BLAH, BLAH about 35 million shares TOO. SERIOUSLY, U R KIDDING right??????? I will bet when that 35m was authorized back in 2013-14 you all BLAHED about it then TOO. THAT is years old news, being restated because it has to be restated to show WHERE, that MASSIVE 160k share dilution is coming from.

    Next year guess what? based on todays rules on compensation Opko does another massive 120k share option grant, massive DILUTION, and WILL again mention the 35m shelf registration.

    So it is OK though, this HUGE dilution, ALL 120k shares CANNOT hit the market until MAY 5 2017, a sigh of relief.

    Just so every one is on the same page, that 35m shares is NOT NEW shares, but a portion of treasury shares, previously authorized shares set aside a few years ago to cover the big 120k share grants over many years. To date about 360K shares have been granted, some not all have been converted to insider holdings, keeping them out of the FREE FLOAT.

  • burnaka May 6, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    Looking over last Q, one time items impacted earnings by -7 million. Every Q there are ONE time items, but last Q did have a few more than usual. They ALSO had a one TIME revenue gain of 15m fromTSRO, which WILL NOT be in this q revenue. This is a definite head wind this Q, one quite frankly I forgot about, initially, but then remembered late yesterday. The average analyst estimates backed this 15m out, then added back 5m for organic growth, netting revenue down 10m. Opko now has roughly 4600 drs. using 4k in their practice as of April 1, up from 1800 Feb 1, about a 125% one month growth.

    Opko needs to pick up revenue gains from a few of their international holdings, small 1 million gains in each of Ireland, South America, Spain, Israel. 4k has been launched in Mexico and in Poland, plus is now in near ALl 50 states plus Puerto Rico. BRLI needs just stay flat or u a tad, plus a small add from 4k for a revenue beat.

    Tesaro this Q will only kick in a few bucks, but a revenue beat is still more likely than not. BRLI is the REAL unknown as the quarters no longer overlap. FLAT is fine, up a few mill guarantees a beat.

    Minus the one time charges which were quite high, and given eps. of break even last Q, eps. is likely positive, in the .02-.08 area. Higher margin 4k sales could push eps. to that upper .08 range.. The sales force was not really an incremental expense, except for training, the 200 additional sales force was in house.

    Earnings May 9 after close, we will know then. Miss? BEAT? We will see.

  • burnaka May 5, 2016 3:09 PM Flag

    Your estimates are dead on with mine. I posted in the uncle box 290 would not shock, .08 not impossible either. Myflag makes a valid point about people pushing to get things in before new deductible, that have gone both ways so a ??? Thing too BRLI quarters no longer OVERLAP, so even harder but still think 4k kicks in any shortfall. I do not expect HUGE4k numbers, but uro drs. were doubling weekly due to the BRLI sales force which started early this Q. Sales forced 15 people to 200 can do that off a low base, we will see.

  • burnaka May 5, 2016 2:58 PM Flag

    Without seeing your portfolio, I can not answer. Margin leverages your gains, so you make money by borrowing. They NEVER explain that it can double your losses. MADE up numbers but if you own 100k stock, borrow 50, you now own only 50K, the other 50 is now hedged. If your portfolio dropped 100k in a day to 50k value a big flash crash, YOU are broke. It DOES happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I had a friend who not only lost his entire portfolio, but had to borrow 40K he owed. He was short a stock called sports line, think they likely went bk, in time.

    If you are getting calls, I personally would sell everything I own on the first margin call. If you get a second or third, you usually are at zero cash left.

    Sell opko? It is a ticker, just like all other holdings. you need decide which tickers to sell, but get out of margin or get it down to 10% of assets.

  • burnaka May 5, 2016 1:53 PM Flag

    I was thinking that too, and that is a Fantastic point. When I looked over lab corp and quest historic revenue trends I saw q1 as generally toping q4, but not every time. OVER half the time though. When it was down it was only by a couple million. So true, that could be a flaw in my logic, but a 10m drop as anticipated is still WAY high. My insurance year begins Sept, so not every one is Dec. The best two quarters have historically been 2-3, q4 and q1 have been about even but slight upward bias.

    I am also quietly anticipating 4k to contribute enough to offset any small dip if one DID happen this Q. Both LH and DGX grew rev, on labs in the 1-3% range, so I anticipate that, plus a small 4k push.

    There are a few other divisions beside diagnostics, Spain and Mex had issues in early 2015, but revenue in both ticked up, Eirgen did introduce a new drug, a tick or so there, not sure on Israel. 4k did launch in 5-6 South American countries, Poland, and is now in all 50 states. It was only in about 15. So if those kick in 10-15 from global sales, and bri stays flat or down, they still beat.

    I see no way revenue dips the anticipated 3%, I can see it up that much. So if Q1 diagnostics dipped due to insurance reasons, ( NOT RULING it OUT ) I think global divisions, with national insurance can pick that up.

  • burnaka May 5, 2016 12:42 PM Flag

    I have been told posting on an eye sore is a waste of time. I do enjoy all the umm, intelligent red thumbs, but minimus feed back from key strokes explaining that intellectual effort. Please, by all means, explain what I missed???

  • Last quarter is the templet you need look at. What goes on during the 4th quarter that does not in the first quarter. Any diagnostics that would take place over the Thanks Giving holiday gets pushed out a week. Most diagnostics that would take place in the dec 21- Jan 1 time frame gets pushed out into this Q. That is a 2 week dip in revenue that gets pushed forward. Unless it is absolutely necessary to get the testing done, which might lead to further medical considerations, people will delay this into the new year, past that holiday time frame.

    So figure BRLI generates about 20 million a week on average, and figure only 25% gets delayed, that pushes 10m forward into this q. Last Q revenue was 276m including that 2 week period. Estimates are for a dip to 266, see the issue with that estimate? Both lab corp and quest grew revenue q/q, not surprising as q1 is usually a q/q up quarter. So if 4k generated no incremental sales, we know it did, opk's rev should at a minimum be = to last Q, if the holiday weeks had no impact, they did, always do.

    To estimate revenue at 276m, a 10m beat seems safe, just figuring the holiday add back. Toss in a 1-2% organic growth and you get rev in the 280m range, a 15m beat.

    Figure historically Opk has had a 5-30 million paper charge due to the notes, and in some quarters the ENTIRE loss was that paper loss from the notes. That OVERHANG is not gone, not 100%, but 75%, as only 25% of the notes have not been converted. So the max negative impact of the notes 7.5 million. Eps. is anticipated at -.02, but with the uptick in revenue, and higher margin 4k sales, umm, if any, reduced note impact, see the problem with the neg .02? Last Q was flat, this Q could see another positive surprise up to about .08, could be more, those notes on OCCASION do toss a paper gain. WE will see.

  • Reply to

    Opko May 5th, Opko May 9th,

    by burnaka May 4, 2016 10:23 PM burnaka May 4, 2016 10:29 PM Flag

    Hilarious, I had to laugh. Talk about the ignore function. I hit send, look at the Yahoo page, AND I see only my one POST. DID I go OVERBOARD with the ignore function? NAH, a lot of ignore is needed for an eye sore, ignore eye sore, sort of has that ring to it.

  • by burnaka May 4, 2016 10:23 PM Flag

    May 5th, Opko annual meeting 10:00 am. Tough market for Bio right now, Opk does not trade in a vacuum. Historically Opko has had a little pop after the annual meeting, might or might not follow this year. The market could dictate but then again, the market is due for a bounce,

    May 9, after the close, Opko earnings will be announced. The Revenue should be a beat off the Posted Yahoo estimate of 266m, anticipate no less than 176m, could be as high as 280m. Eps. is an expected loss of .03, and they could beat making it the third beat in a row. No big tax credit to help, BUT no BIG paper loss on the
    notes. So a wash on that regard. Eps. could be in the .00 to .08 range, and that will be dictated by those pesky one time charges, or lack thereof.

    Post earnings, after one week, the average move over the past couple of years has been about .80 up or down. Strange too is one of those quarters earnings was a big miss and Opko Ran up stronger than any other quarter, might have had to do with the deal where Opko will own HALF of Pfizers growth hormone business once phase 3 pediatric is approved. Owning half of the PFE franchise plus the 1/2 billion cash can impact a stock.

    Opko is in it's infancy, IT will not hang in this area forever. Shorts will try to PAINT that picture, we will see. Share price will ultimately follow revenue, which more than doubles for a few years.

    Short term, is that right, TICKER watchers? WOW, guess opk has it's work cut out for it, is that a 9+ handle we are toting? SURE looks it. I guess there are a few GIDDY kiddies over this temporary point on the number line. Hard for me to know, I have practically burned out the YAHOO ignorance or is that ignore function, umm, guess that was a tad redundant.

    BEST of luck, buy hold, accumulate,

  • Reply to

    Free Falll

    by brosen818 May 2, 2016 9:55 AM burnaka May 2, 2016 2:59 PM Flag

    Nothing ABOUT earnings leaked, Dr Frost would fire for a breach like that. If you remember, they historically NEVER even gave an earnings date,lol. One day you look and go OMG earnings are out.

    I can only guess as to why so it would be an exercise in spewing noise, nothing more. FDA delay maybe? A fund moving cash? I know one thing it is NOT, it is not a move based on this board, THAT I am 100% sure of.

    Short term noise.. Give this one about 18 months, lots will happen between NOW and eoy 2017. Claros launch, PFE/HGH approval adult, rayaldee, the drivers are in place, will need a little time.

  • Reply to

    Free Falll

    by brosen818 May 2, 2016 9:55 AM burnaka May 2, 2016 2:16 PM Flag

    Mike, Dr. Frost plans on giving his estate away, but he did say he hoped to double the amount he donates, so in that regard he keeps a score card.

    If Dr. Frost sold all assets and went on a spree handing out a million each month to soup kitchens, in 30 years he could stop the madness and still retire a billionaire. 1 billion is a lot of money, when you get in the 5-6 range, even billionaires can not grasp the concept. They know this much, they do not post here.

  • Reply to

    Free Falll

    by brosen818 May 2, 2016 9:55 AM burnaka May 2, 2016 1:19 PM Flag

    Highlow, no 100% guarantees, but if I had to bet on my revenue estimates and on a beat of at least the posted yahoo number, I would put it at about 85% likely. Opk does not have the moving parts as BAC, revenues are fairly predictable. The jokying of brli Q dates post merger helps this Q, but hurt last Q. Eps. trickier cause tied to phase study starts, and the link to the NOTES. LAST year Opko posted a loss, IF you threw out the PAPER loss from the NOTES, opk was about break even. 3/4 of notes are now converted, so impact is NOW down to +/- about .05, not .25-.30 as in the past. Not ruling out an EPS. beat by about .08, and do anticipate a revenue beat provided brli grew rev in line with lh, and qdx on a q/q basis. ONLY caveat is BRLI lost revenue while training staff to sell 4k, doubtful, or QDX and LH took share, umm, not impossible, but it is a big market, enough for all.

  • Reply to

    Free Falll

    by brosen818 May 2, 2016 9:55 AM burnaka May 2, 2016 12:51 PM Flag

    Had a thought, 4 profitable quarters in a row could bode well for an upgrade to a different S&P index. That could get things curious with the tiny float, the listed float is a mirage, since insiders own half of that number.

  • Reply to

    Free Falll

    by brosen818 May 2, 2016 9:55 AM burnaka May 2, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    Frost intends to give away his fortune and has signed a pledge to this fact. So cash, shares of TEVA, OPK, all will end up in a trust of his design. Dr. Frost's holdings generate enough in dividends that he could support my extended family with the proceeds. He is dividend reinvesting but his dividends go into opk shares, not his other holding. Dr. Frost has a revenue growth plan in place, he knows the share price will reflect that, so no better place to put his money than in an item where he is steering that growth.

    The 6 month fda timeline is a worst case timeline, and though it could take the full 6 months, it is more likely an 8-12 week time line. It is a " within " 6 month pudfa, and on second nda's many times that within clause DOES kick in.

    Earnings next Mon. Usually an easy read, but the BRLI Q's have moved post merger. Regardless, this Q brli will have better Rev than last, and better than the Q4 which is now the overlap. Estimate is 266m, should be no less than 276, might be in the 280m range. Last Q rev 276, so bar not that high, a 3% q/q rev growth would be in line with LH and qdx. So 280m seems a safe estimate. The will not get a tax break this Q, but also not get a HIT from the NOTES so eps. could be a beat break even to again in the .01-.05 range. 4k the unknown, could kick in an additional .05-.10, no way to estimate at this point.

    Opk likely gets back into the 11 range post earnings, average post earnings after a week is up or down about .80, anticipate a similar move. We will see.

  • Reply to

    What is current status of Fermagate?

    by fukarwechief Apr 29, 2016 8:15 AM burnaka Apr 29, 2016 5:21 PM Flag

    Only data I found on it was at the opko site, said further phase 3 study will start first half 2016, so no completion date given. Apparently not double blind, or set up to do interim data peak. Said does AS good as existing drugs, BUT less side affects.

  • Reply to

    IBB chart situation not a pretty picture,

    by cl122cl Apr 29, 2016 12:18 PM burnaka Apr 29, 2016 12:37 PM Flag

    They are crushing most items out there, warranted and unwarranted, not just biotech. SBUX earnings were actually good, down like rock, dnkn ditto on a beat top bottom, aapl hit within .50 of year low, gild down over 8, and on and on. A handful of up items, you know, the ones with pe's over a thousand, but the likes of aapl gets a 12 pe withs it's 200 billion cash = to 1/3 of cap. I do think STX hits more lows, but most of this action is cause they can, not because it is deserved.

  • burnaka Apr 29, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    The original pudfa for RAY was an 8 month review, the current one is 6 months, the former a standard review period, the latter accelerated review. From what I could find, this new submission could NOT happen without the FDA signing off on Cats letter. Ticker COLL was denied approval due to a patent suit, the fda delayed approval for up to 60 months or some massive number, until court resolution. The court sided with COLL in Dec, fda approved in April, 4 months. Point being, the fda wording always has the phase " within " X time period, though most are at the exact date, a few, slightly less than 3% are late. In circumstances where the fda has delayed due to an outside factor, court litigation, plant issues, the " within " phrase comes into play more times than not. I for one expect WORD in 120 days or less from the new filing, we will see. I DOUBT it runs the full 6 months, approval with be pre market and earlier than the stated pudfa date, no one will know when, and it will surprise some, not all.

  • burnaka Apr 29, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    Coach nice post. My lead in post to this little ditty was me letting that 8th grade punk out for a walk. I strive to only post facts, and if NOT facts per se, my opinion, which I back up with facts, or speculative scenarios that use the IF A happens, Then B happens format. Thought I let the punk out for a walk, I never put a posters name in the title, though I see at least one who thinks they have Carte Blanch to put mine in theirs.

    This stock has had two run ups, umm, HUGE % moves on short covering in the past 3 years. Yes, selling at 19, would have been the right move, IF you KNEW it would crater. At that time the chart looked to pull back pre merger to 14-15 MAX, base, and likely rise post merger. So the chart and price action, caught many off guard. WELL, not the short funds, they went from NEAR zero shares to short, as opko hit 19, to a bonanza with the brli dilution.

    Price will follow revenue, I expect two years of 100% revenue growth, so we will see.

  • burnaka Apr 28, 2016 6:19 PM Flag

    The trouble with tribbles, is that tribbles don't dribble, but tribbles would dribble if a wood chuck dribble but a wood chuck he chuck wood. So I repeat today what I said today, next 10 FDA, accumulate HERE.


  • you that I said it today. I have been saying this same thing for a long time now, and I do hate to keep repeating
    the SAME DRIBBLE over and over today, then finding myself obsessively compuled to remind you tomorrow, that I said it today, but by then today is YESTERDAY. So keep reading this DRIBBLE. I get a CALL right EVERY once in A while, and when I do, I remind you of that fact not only today, but tomorrow, and then the NEXT tomorrow, about how I got things RIGHT one time, but then, no need read on, I WILL repeat this dribble tomorrow, and you can read this same dribble then.

    This by the way IS ALL positive DRIBBLE, and I hear if you only write positive dribble, YOUR dribble has NO meaning, you NEED negative dribble to give impetus to that positive dribble without it, BAD THINGS can happen. You cast dribble KARMA from here to there, and LEAST I forget, all the way to TOMORROW. WHEN GUESS what? I will repeat this DRIBBLE, to perpetuate more DRIBBLE, in the HOPES of over coming DRIBBLE KARMA.

    So anyone who does not get the point of this DRIBBLE, THIS board has a master, and one or two clones, or is that clowns that are MASTERS of DRIBBLE, that WILL tell you TOMORROW, what they said TODAY.

    THE arrogance and self pride of some people to think this dribble is in any way about their dribble, I mean, YOU need remember a screen name for that TO HAPPEN, and I have so many blocked, there basically is no DRIBBLE at all.

    WELL TTFN, ACCUMULATORS, you know, INVESTORS !!!!!! Those who plan on being here for the next 10 FDA approvals, YES you YOU know who you are.

    OH BROTHER, so until tomorrow, you know when I repeat...................................................the .............same ..................dribble

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