TTHI has little debt, more cash than debt, works for Opko because it adds cash to balance sheet. So buy price is EVEN less
TTHI has an oxyntomodulin drug, and deal with LILLY. Opko has an OXY drug, so it will have in place a deal wth LILLY, that might GET EXPANDED. Opko combined their HGH with PFE, so combining the two OXY programs not far fetched.
At a SHARE price of .70, TTHI had little MEANS TO RAISE additional cash through a secondary. To advance their two phase 3 ready drugs they were up against the wall. They could out license, losing rights, picking up royalties and an upfront payment on one drug to finance the other drug, or MERGE and retain both.
It gives Opko another Irish facility and another Canadian facility, expanding footprint in tax friendly countries. It gives Opko two phase 3 ready drugs, and an EXTREMELY promising less advanced phase 2 drug for DOWNEs syndrome.
So this works out for both companies, opko expands an existing program ( OXY ) and gets a partnership with Lilly. TTHI gets to MOVE forward with their phase studies getting a partner with 175 million in cash ending financing concerns.
Good DEAL for BOTH.
Follow the revenue, with gross margin at 50%, and basically NO LONGER TERM debt, ( 50m ), and revenue doubling, Y/Y, and net margin holding steady, eps. is POISED to take a leap from TTM .15 to the next level. There will be added expense from 4k ramp, and RAY ramp ups, but if the Gross Margin ticks up from those higher margin product earnings will follow.
Forget about how the shorts PUSHED this from 9 to 19 as retail know it alls GOT DESTROYED. Forget how the big guys pushed it back down to 9 to get to break even. You can note that there was dilution. Think about that, cause there was dilution.
FACT IS, there is good and bad dilution, but in EITHER case the share price usually drops. After all, it puts a few more bee bees in the hopper, and under water shorts use those to save their losing position. REMEMBER, dilution MOST times happens at a share price high, and many times when the share price has gotten ahead of itself. That is the nature when SHORTS are getting destroyed pushing a 9 dollar stock to a double, ouch.
So think about this, Opko had .22 revenue per share, and spent 900m to grow revenue per share to 2.12, over 800% growth in revenue per share, but about 2400% on the newly invested shares. TTM .15, and became profitable in the past 12 months.
Invest one share, grow revenue 800% because of the new share, ponder that !!!! 50% gross margin, expanding net. Do it again, please.
Will 4k, or RAY be multi billion dollar items? No way to know, but does it really matter? Opko is marginally profitable NOW, and about half of each dollar those kick in will push the profit margin and eps.
If both of those only kick in 300-400m in revenue, opko will be earning close to 1.00 up from .15, so as I like to say:
FOLLOW the revenue, umm, in this case the revenue per share, and go ahead, stretch the imagination, think about dilution, and the short term pain, LONG term gain, when each NEWLY MINTED share generated 800% revenue growth. PATIENCE.
to out perform, on June 25. Follow the revenue, they are anticipating additional revenue growth in light of the early FDA approval. Launch of Ray was only slowed by a couple months, so I GET their point, and understand their logic. UMM, follow the revenue, SP will follow.
I basically ignore this message board, but do pop by to see nothing has changed much. I hear the long thesis, agree with some, NOT ALL by a " LONG " shot. I hear the short thesis, and though they make a point or two that can be argued, they as a group, see the windshield, not the road. From my perspective a windshield is a splat collector, a bug magnet. As CHANOS, says, and I do respect his thesis, SHORT deteriorating fundamentals, shorting the CAP can put you in the poor house when the fundamentals warrant the cap. You need not be ann accountant to see what is going on with the FUNDAMENTALS here, no debt, VASTLY improved NET margin y/y, revenue doubling, HELLO, the lights are on, but.....
Oechman, I could be wrong but am about 99% certain that Opko DOES not get to combine their franchise with
PFE until BOTH adult and child version of hgh are approved. They will get whatever the milestone payment is, and royalties for now, then once the child version is approved PFE HANDS over half of their HGH franchise, so a co-owned drug, plus any sales on what PFE is currently marketing, umm, likely discontinued as RX is converted.
Opko has received 295m, and needs HIT milestones to get the balance, 275M. Excerpt : from opko presser.
Under the terms of the agreement, OPKO will receive an upfront payment of $295 million and is eligible to receive up to an additional $275 million upon the achievement of certain regulatory milestones. Pfizer will receive the exclusive license to commercialize hGH-CTP worldwide.
In addition, OPKO is eligible to receive initial royalty payments associated with the commercialization of hGH-CTP for Adult GHD which is subject to regulatory approval. Upon the launch of hGH-CTP for Pediatric GHD, which is subject to regulatory approval, the royalties will transition to gross profit sharing for both hGH-CTP and Pfizer’s Genotropin.
Dr. Frost needs buy a cure for these psychological disorders. Time might help too, Revenue set to double year over year for a few years, price will follow.
Figure the logorrhea and palilalia will get replaced by the sounds of silence and a few quiet tears.
Alternate sales channels were available? Not sure the point. Opko spent 900m, to invest in 1b revenue, and become profitable by that investment.
Instead of becoming profitable they could have BLED MILLIONS in cash to build a sales force from scratch, and DILUTED to do so with no immediate reurn on investment. BUT WAIT!!!!, they did have a 4k sales force but NOTHING to SHOW FOR IT. THEY did NOT JUST need a sales force, did they???
The sales force is a part of it, only half of it. THEY had no infrastructure to become a national player. BILLING, accounts Receivable, lab techs, regulatory staff, and so on and so forth. Sure there were alternate ways to do it at about 300m-400m to build a national network or invest 900m become profitable and have the third largest network tomorrow which is growing revenue at 20% historically, 15% recently and REDUCE your DEBT LEVEL.
I get your point, umm, think on it, weight your IDEA against Dr. Frost's action, not sure but thinking same dilution your way, but no revenue or profit.
KEEP in mind that Dr. Frost has a plan. A plan he stated in an Opko mission statement about 2013. Dr. Frost said HE WIlL ( OPKO ) create a national diagnostics company that is profitable, it WILL have a GLOBAL footprint. Those PROFITS will fund our biotech R&D and as we bring those items to market our company will grow. Nothing going on at OPKO is by random chance, and in fact the diagnostics does NOT HAVE to be wildly profitable, only profitable enough to FUND R&D, and it WILL be.
To the NEWBIE OPKO appears a little of this, a little of that, a dab of this and what the heck is it anyway? It is IN FACT a WELL thought out plan unfolding EXACTLY AS STATED years AGO, nothing random AT ALL.
Thanks to the UNCLEDD website investors have a great interactive site. UMM, strictly monitored board, but if polite should be fine for many, not all.
Well, look here, posting to myself, lol.
GOOGLE uncle OPKO and say bye bye to yahoolagans.
I know you know they started out with 10% of tsro, but it was sold off between 2012-2013, with the last number of shares listed in q4 2013 at 56k, by q1 2014 they listed no shares that quarter.
Glad Uncledd exists, at least that board is civil, umm, or you get booted off.
It will take a day or two, at most a week, this board will be gone. The new board is yhoos third revamp in about 5-6 years. From this first board to full implementation of board two, it took about a week, expect the same.
Unclesdd is a nice research site, investment ideas beside opko in perm section, so people tossing out ideas to help others make money. Seriously monitored for violating politeness rules, but that is part of what makes it a great site.
Flashback, thanks, nice of you to say that and I know uncles is not as good for posting and interactive chat, but a ton of info is in that perm section. So much, that it can get cumbersome to keep track of it all.
Thing is, I barely post there personally, no need to. There are so many good researchers that find things and post them so fast it is amazing. Think I found one item first, lol. One out of a thousand, lol, but hay, stronger together.
Uncle is amazing, he has news feeds upon news feeds, and posts as it hits some obscure wire in outer pumpkinville.