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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

burnedoutprof 2402 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2016 6:40 PM Member since: Oct 11, 2001
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  • burnedoutprof by burnedoutprof Jul 11, 2016 6:40 PM Flag

    Company says it needs $250M initial capex to mine the low-hanging fruit. Current market cap is $120M even after the recent runup. So a crucial issue is how they raise the money. Banks are not loaning money to companies like this. So either a big equity raise (more than doubling current share count), a partnership, or a sale. I think the big increase in XRA share price has as much to do with the gold-mining majors having improved balance sheets and needing to restock their pipelines as it does with the minor uptick in gold prices, making a crippling equity dilution less likely. Anyone like to speculate which majors would be most interested?

  • burnedoutprof burnedoutprof Jun 24, 2016 3:00 AM Flag

    Could go to $20 quickly. Rand and other currencies down sharply, mining costs will go down even as gold price goes up.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    redetermination Announcement

    by zooplankton200 May 2, 2016 8:10 AM
    burnedoutprof burnedoutprof May 2, 2016 12:16 PM Flag

    No, Sunday is a holiday. Today Monday is the deadline for the banks to do the redetermination, and they can always agree to another extension if something is in the works (which it is).

  • Reply to

    EIG's problem

    by zooplankton200 May 1, 2016 8:15 AM
    burnedoutprof burnedoutprof May 1, 2016 10:40 AM Flag

    The bond market is telling us that a restructuring to result in a cycle-proof capital structure is certain (absent a white knight). Debt to equity is the logical way to go, so... a) pay the overdue April 15 interest; b) quick reorganization as C-corp to avoid/reduce CODI overhang, c) pre-pack bankruptcy after negotiation with EIG and the largest unsecured note holders; d) current units and preferreds are canceled; e) unsecured notes and hopefully a portion of the secured notes are converted to "new" units. A possible sweetener for current unit holders could be 5-year warrants as in some other bankruptcies (SSE for example).

    There is no reason at present to demonize EIG. The recent resignation of the EIG-appointed board member quite properly keeps EIG at arm's length from management. I see no sign of EIG "pouncing" to scoop up cheap unsecured notes on the open market.

  • Reply to

    Dividend to rise in 2016?

    by dcandkc Apr 29, 2016 11:24 AM
    burnedoutprof burnedoutprof May 1, 2016 1:33 AM Flag

    I'll drink (heavily) to that thought.

    A lot of similarity between EURN and F. Concerns about peak earnings are killing the stocks even as the companies are choking in profits.

  • burnedoutprof by burnedoutprof Apr 30, 2016 2:54 PM Flag

    You only get the info from TDAm for distressed/defaulted bonds if you own some of them. I have no info about the 2022's.

    date // total volume (1 = $1000 par value) // total # of trades // high (cents on the dollar) // low

    04/29/2016 // 1335 // 8 // 9.533 // 7.500
    04/28/2016 // 544 // 8 // 8.500 // 7.200
    04/27/2016 // 6670 // 32 // 7.600 // 6.432
    04/26/2016 // 1622 // 28 // 8.155 // 6.333
    04/25/2016 // 580 // 13 // 8.000 // 6.749

    Slightly upward price movement during the week, but still trading under 10 cents on the dollar, no pickup in volume Thursday or Friday. The divergence between highs and lows reflects spreads taken by dealers. Over the last three weeks the low for the day is often due to a large 1000-bond block, likely the same seller slowly liquidating a large holding. High for the day always a much smaller block (retail buyers).

    long the 2020 notes

  • burnedoutprof by burnedoutprof Apr 29, 2016 8:59 PM Flag

    Management make no secret of the fact that they need $250M to undertake the lowest-cost development option. They have about $20M cash which is slowly burning. Current market cap is $90M at share price $1.01. To win the contest you must correctly predict:

    1) whether they will raise capital on their own, or entice a major into a JV.
    2) in the former case, whether the capital raise will be 100% equity, or include some debt.
    3) in either case, at what share price they will make a move.

    Employees of Exeter Resource Co. and their girlfriends are ineligible.

    The winner of the contest gets a one month free parking space at Caspiche.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    yahoo says Div & Yield 1.64 (14.66%). Is this real?

    by changdba Apr 26, 2016 12:24 PM
    burnedoutprof burnedoutprof Apr 27, 2016 11:39 PM Flag

    You are correct. If you agree with EURN management (on the just completed conference call) that newbuilds are being absorbed, you might also look at TNP which has a "boatload" of newbuilds on order and whose stock has been pummeled. On the call, EURN claims that VLCCs will get most or all of the new business, which would suit them (but not TNP which has mostly other categories). So there are four things to juggle: overall future tanker market, fleet structure, debt load, and spot vs. charter strategy.

    long EURN and TNP

  • burnedoutprof by burnedoutprof Apr 27, 2016 11:12 PM Flag

    The EURN conference call and slide presentation is interesting in this respect. TNP has a heavy newbuild orderbook and the stock is paying for it. EURN isn't doing much newbuilding but they argue that the overall industry orderbook is fairly well balanced with future demand. If so TNP should be in the mid-teens in 2-3 years since competitors have stopped orders to shipyards in spite of cheap prices, due in large part to lack of bank credit (and the complete disappearance of German-Dutch spec syndicates).

    long TNP and EURN

  • burnedoutprof by burnedoutprof Apr 27, 2016 10:37 PM Flag

    On the company's website.

  • Reply to

    Foreign Tax Credit

    by stalyon52 Apr 1, 2016 6:58 AM
    burnedoutprof burnedoutprof Apr 27, 2016 8:17 PM Flag

    The basic rate is 30%. TDAmeritrade and some other brokers register with the French government and get a discounted 15% rate. So you could transfer your holdings to a broker like that and at least future foreign tax withholdings will go down to 15%.

  • Reply to

    It was definitely a good day for DVN holders.

    by mtay515 Apr 27, 2016 2:56 PM
    burnedoutprof burnedoutprof Apr 27, 2016 3:47 PM Flag

    Short covering doesn't explain it. Oil majors are also up sharply. All these companies have cut expenses and increased efficiency. They will do OK in a sideways oil market and very well in an upswing. Same story with gold and iron ore miners.

  • burnedoutprof by burnedoutprof Apr 27, 2016 3:19 PM Flag

    The 2020 unsecured notes are trading at around 7 cents on the dollar, trending down, mostly small lots (retail). The divide between expectations of note holders and unit holders is cavernous.

    Long the notes.

  • Reply to

    Rights offering

    by zooplankton200 Apr 26, 2016 2:44 PM
    burnedoutprof burnedoutprof Apr 26, 2016 10:25 PM Flag

    Unsecured noteholders can force chapter 11 and could then insist on being made whole before any consideration is given to any of the preferreds. That's what little leverage we have, why throw it away?

    A negotiated deal would have to involve EIG secured credit participating at least in a small way in a swap. If EIG and a majority of the unsecured note holders agree on a deal, they can push it through quickly in a prepack. Maybe some 5-year warrants as consolation prize for the preferreds and the old units. After all, some of the unit holders posting are sure that oil will shoot up in future years so in their minds the warrants would be worth something.

  • Reply to

    yahoo says Div & Yield 1.64 (14.66%). Is this real?

    by changdba Apr 26, 2016 12:24 PM
    burnedoutprof burnedoutprof Apr 26, 2016 5:34 PM Flag

    It's a highly cyclical business and dividends will have peaks and troughs. Things look less rosy going forward for the tanker industry as contango subsides and more newbuilds hit the water. With all tanker companies you have to take a hard look at current and future interest payments as well as income.

  • Reply to

    Rights offering

    by zooplankton200 Apr 26, 2016 2:44 PM
    burnedoutprof burnedoutprof Apr 26, 2016 3:11 PM Flag

    Why would unsecured noteholders give series B preferred (i.e. EIG) such a break, with no conversion to equity from the secured notes (i.e. EIG)?

  • burnedoutprof by burnedoutprof Apr 25, 2016 5:40 PM Flag

    natural gas futures easily found on various sites. Currently above 3.00 for next January peak, above 2.80 for the summer '17 trough, generally trending slightly higher for the out years.

  • Reply to

    Current trading value of Cap Structure

    by arbitrage_hedgie Apr 21, 2016 12:30 PM
    burnedoutprof burnedoutprof Apr 21, 2016 2:25 PM Flag

    I think unsecured creditors (like us) would mostly accept a direct swap for "new" BBEP units provided that the EIG secured debt participates in some way (though of course on better terms) so the overall capital structure can withstand future cycles. EIG is looking for the best overall deal and they'll throw their own (and others') preferreds under the bus if they like what they see emerging from their secured debt. Old BBEP/BBEPP holders, including management, might get 5-year warrants, for example, and a chance to recoup in the future if the company does well.

  • burnedoutprof burnedoutprof Apr 20, 2016 6:13 PM Flag

    Great, thanks again. Small-time player here!

  • burnedoutprof burnedoutprof Apr 20, 2016 4:12 PM Flag

    Helpful info, thanks.

    How up to date is your info? I don't see any Breitburn in the JPM High Yield Fund (OHYAX) holdings (Nov '15). I do see 3220 of the notes in the Allianz High Yield Fund (Sep '15). Hopefully JPM and Allianz have a bunch for their own account.

    Active trading in the notes lately but light so far today (stable between 8 and 9 cents on the dollar) as we wait for the next shoe to drop.

44.780.00(0.00%)Oct 27 4:00 PMEDT