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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

bwu106 2878 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 11, 2015 11:11 AM Member since: Jul 30, 2004
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  • Reply to

    HD is a scearming buy

    by channelwood1 Aug 28, 2006 10:42 AM
    bwu106 bwu106 Aug 28, 2006 7:18 PM Flag

    I absolutely agree. Just took major action over the last a couple of weeks, by buying huge loads of HD.

    I feel the the stock now is extremely undervaled growth stock. It is selling at forward p/e just 10, while the company is still growing at 17% top line in such a bad housing market. The company has very little debt, and it is buying almost 20% of its outstanding shares for cancellation. Housing is still where the money is for most people. The dividened will go up too, since 1.8% yiled now is at only about 20% payout rate.

    I expect, as recent negativities go by with time, we shall see the stock to be at 45 or so by the end of the year.

    A strong buy for a long term hold!

  • Reply to

    Dow has paid down over 4 billion in debt

    by simple_simon_over Jun 4, 2010 12:08 PM
    bwu106 bwu106 Jun 11, 2010 2:18 PM Flag

    I see big problems.

    Total debt is still sky high even with quite some reduction in debt by selling some businesss. Total debt divided by perceived profit going forward each year is still some 8-12 times, depending on your take on worldwide GDP. Selling assets to reduce debt is not working well now. Condition for selling business is very poor - what you want to sell do not generate much value; and what can sell is not what you want to sell. Let us also not forget, DOW has short term debt close to $4 billions which are highly sensitive to any credit market shocks, and DOw also has some $4 billions in preferred shares, for which DOW has to make interest payment even if Dow makes losses.

    As for potential to make profit going forward, visibility is so poor, since there are simply not many growth drivers. Dot coms will not come back, and US housing, as well as housing world wide, will not come back, and auto sales is tryig to find some new norm that is down some 20% from a few years ago. Just today, it was reported building materials are down some 20%. All these add to a picture that is very detremental to chemical manufacters such as DOW. Bear in mind, the bread and butter at Dow is still pretty much all commodities, so any economical slowdown can have a mutiplier effect, choking off top line and generating massive losses at the bottom line. It is normelly wise for DOW to keep debt levels at control, but not this time, due to the giant mis-match of the Rohm-Hass purchase.

    Then, with this massive euro drop over the last 2 months or so, and DOW has some 30% sales coming from Europe, it is pretty much a sure bet that, going forward, sales in $ will be down and profit margin will be squeezed, and a lot of accounts will be lost.

    So, all considerred,Dow is probably one of the best short sell candidates for some hedge funds. Be adivised, if this one starts to go down, it will probably go down big time!

  • Based on the just released intern report, earnings per share will be the same or slightly higher than the reported EPS of $3.84 for last quater.

    The proceeds from the sale of the refinary is about $500 millions before tax, so effect after tax will be about 280$ millions.

    All these considerred, I am coming to EPS, excluding the extradordinary item of the refinary sale, EPS will be $3.65 or higher.

    Street expects EPS of $3.41. Therefore, this represents a beat of $0.25/share then!!!!!

    Great earnings! How many companies on earth can make more than $6 billions in a single quater? Not many! EPS for 2011 will be more than $13/share!!

    Great buy!

  • We have passed 40, and now middle way to 45. I will expect the stock to be at 50 within a month or so.

    Two recent wins in the courts, and the upcoming FDA approvals for a major new drug and a major new indication, plus the nice upswing for the Euro and pound should all add to near and middle term earnings. 2009 EPS will be north of $6!

    On top of all these very positive news, we got this great clinical results from Brilinta that has potential of up to $10 billions a year in sales.

    Further more, nice divideends, and a p/e just 7, we can easily see a nice run of 30-50%!!!

    Expect great things from AZN!!!!!

  • My assessment is, serious money will be made on COP over the coming year. I am looking at any where from 30% to 50% over the coming year. Here are my reasons.

    1. Oil price will stay high in the range of 55-85.
    2. Nat gas price will stay high in the range of 7-15.
    3. Refining margin will stay high from 4-20.
    4. Production of oil and gas will be up
    5. Debt will be reduced from current 28 to 15.
    6. Dividend will be up by 15-20%
    7. Stock purchase will be activated in the range of $5-10 billions.

  • Come on, for God's sake, ban naked shorting. It will save the nation from these shorters. And, this costs nothing, but a single rule change!!!!

    SEC and treasury secreatory - show the world, you know what to do, and you are different from Cox and different from Paulson!!!!

  • The general market will start to rise gredually from here on over the coing month. Anyone who shorts this stock here will be in very bad shape. Let's watch and see.

    Expect great things from COP!!!

  • Reply to

    HD is a scearming buy

    by channelwood1 Aug 28, 2006 10:42 AM
    bwu106 bwu106 Aug 29, 2006 8:48 PM Flag

    Just a couple of months ago, management announced they will start to report same store sale numbers from now on. I would think they will only decided to report it if they feel pretty comfortable that they will be able to report a positive number. Now, they have low-balled that their same store sales number will be flat to slightly negative over the coming two quaters. I feel, the minute they report a decent positive same store sales number, that will be a huge catalyst for the stock to move up substantially higher, possibly bring the share price back above 40. Let's wait and see.

    Expect great things from HD!!!!

  • Well, looks to me CVX is a great buy here. How many other companies inthe world makes more than 8$ billins in a quater?, not many!

    P/e just 7, does not make any sense! Strong buy!!!

  • bwu106 bwu106 Aug 25, 2009 8:58 AM Flag

    I agree their EPS will be more than $6/share for 2009.

    If you read their update for the 2nd quater, you would notice their EPS projection of $5.7-6 was based on currency projections done at the begining of the year. As we all know by now, the Euro and the most other major currencies have all risen by more than 15%. This currency effect shall have about 10% positive effect, which means $0.5-0.6/share more to the bank, which means PES of about $6-6.5/share!

    Expect the stock to be above $60 before the end of the year!

  • A combination of a few recent nagative events (the nagative court case in the US, the Euro debt cresis, the lower euro, and recent market crash), collectively have pushed this high quality stock down by some 20% during the last month. Although this is unfortunate, it is however great to any new investor or new money. I think, even with the lower euro, NVS should be able to make more than $4 this year. Besides, the effect of the EU debt cresis will have very small effect to drug companies. The euro exchange rate has stablized last week, in fact up by some 1.5% last week. The court case in the US will be appealled, and in the worst case, the money damage is only about 200 millions dollars.

    Therefore, the fundations are there for the stock to go for a massive recovery, when the trend reverses. I think the bottom has probably been set last week, most likely. With some luck, we should be on the course for a quick up turn of about 10%, assuming the genaral market is stablized.

    Expect great things from NVS!!!!

  • MSFt serach Bing market share has been increasing every month this year, in fact it has reached almost 20%. Togather with partner Yahoo, MSFT now controls about 30% of all web searches!! This is outsatnding result, considerring a few years ago, MSFt bearly started it. Last quater, MSFT started to make decent money from search. We can expect profit contribution from searcgh will start to be a big factor for msft in the future.

    MSFt's search market share gains is like putting a knife into the heart of google!!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I just litensed to the replay. Here are a few take-home messages.

    1. Will postpone the newly bought refinary at Germany, to save money for the short term, presuably in order to pay down more debt more quickly and start the purchase program earlier.

    2. Can expect a nice ividend increase, coming up early in 2007. It will be double digit.

    3. BR purchase is performing as expected, and expect this to contribute more positively going forward.

    4. In 2007 and 2008, no more purchases of any kind. Instead, will focus on profit distruibution to shareholders, through stock buybacks and divident increases.

    5.. Feel positive high energy prices will be here to stay.

    So, the overall message is very positive!

  • Reply to

    Chevron, the other shoe.

    by cryptoplop Jan 28, 2010 7:30 PM
    bwu106 bwu106 Jan 28, 2010 9:54 PM Flag

    Based on averages for AEPS for 2010, XOM has p/e 13, and CVX has p/e about 10. Therefore, even with the steeper drop in XOM share prices, CVX is about 15-20% discount than XOM. XOM is also grwoing slower than CVX. BOth companies have no net debt, but XOM has more cash on hand.

    All considerred, both are strong buys, CVX is a better buy, in my opinion.

  • Reply to


    by gale.kessler Jul 6, 2010 7:08 PM
    bwu106 bwu106 Jul 6, 2010 8:21 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, DOW's ability to pay higher dividened is very limited. They can not reduce much of their debt either, since they have to pay so much interest for their some $23 billions of debt and some $4 billions of preferred shares. Net profit is bearly enough to cover these two necessary expenses. Selling assets to pay down debt is hard to come by in current envirenments.

  • Reply to

    i smell a late day sell off

    by bigbrotherjamessucka Jul 25, 2008 2:15 PM
    bwu106 bwu106 Jul 25, 2008 2:18 PM Flag

    Looks to me - simply profit taking after the monster run up. Bear in mind, it is still up some 50% from just a few days ago!

    I would assue the stock will resume its up trend once it is down by a little more than 10% from recent high of 33.

    The stock shall ris to 50-60 over coming year, if not higher than 60.

    Great compnay at dirt cheap price.

  • Does anyone have a break down on the % of Dow's maufacturing in the US, in Europe and in Asia?

    I am trying to see how the euro decline will affact their sales and bottom line. I know some companies try to match thier sales and manufacturing in one gerogrephy, in order to avoid any extreme negative effects from any major currency moves.

    I know Dow has a lot of thier capacity in the US, but I am not sure how much of their total is in Eurpe. Does anyone know? Thanks in advance!

  • Does anyone know for sure the interest rates for the different Dow debts and the average interest rate for these debts? A total debt of $23.2 billions, based on the most recent balance sheet info, look like a lot to me.

    I think Dow over the last 4 quaters made some $1.2 billions of net profit, leaving out the non-recurring items.

    What I am thinking is, so many on the street are talking about a possible double dip, which means Dow will proabbly not be making a lot of money going forward. I guess the question is, with so much debt on its balance sheet, will the company have enough $ to cover the servicing cost of these debts.

    If some of you still remember, Dow was very hasitant to go ahead with the R&H purchase last year and, in the CEO's words, Dow was afriad of the extra debt to put the company for a very high risk of bankrupcy. I am just wonderring if this risk has increased due to the market streesses we are experiencing right now.

    Anyone, any thoughts?

  • Reply to

    What was going on in WFC's /WB's mind

    by lemur_monk Oct 4, 2008 2:30 PM
    bwu106 bwu106 Oct 4, 2008 4:16 PM Flag

    WFC is dishonest and too small to buy WB. WFC net tangible book value just 30 billions. WFC expects WB to have losses in the 75 billions area from WB's 300 billins of bad debt. FDIC will make a great mistake to allow WFC to buy WB. Sooner or late, the combined WFC_AB will go bankrup togather, causing taxpayers the bigest loss in the histrory of the world.

    Shame on WFC CEO and evenn bigger shame on WB Steel!!!

  • Reply to

    The Mother of Short Squeezes...

    by gawdsmajudgel2 May 10, 2010 7:38 AM
    bwu106 bwu106 May 24, 2010 8:01 AM Flag

    Can you give any fundemental reasons why the stock will go up. True, the stock has come down quite a bit, it came up from just a few $ from a coule of years ago. Besides, very often, what comes down can go down more and sometimes much more.

    Here are what I am thinking.

    Currency headwinds depresses foreign sales. Dow's foreign sales is some 69% of total, if I read it right.

    Widespread budget cuts across Europe will possibly cut GDP from flat to slightly nagative.

    US economy is not better and soon will have to face the strong currency negative effects.

    US new housing is still only about 30% of what used to be 3-4 years ago. US auto sales is still donw by some 40%.

    On top of these, DOW has very high debt.

    I do not know the reasons for any bouse, but see so mush negatives on the horizen. The picture going forward is not pretty.

59.87-0.23(-0.38%)Oct 28 4:00 PMEDT