I remember in the same period in 2009, MON made 1.4 EPS, and the stock was at 87. Now it 0.23 and it is at 77. Big deal.
Actually, we are importing inflation. When the economy was bad, the QE money actually went to hot developing countries, and they had super-inflation. When our economy is improving, money then comes back, and cause higher inflation
Cargill's move on MOS was viewed negative for the whole Ag sector. MON will be lower from this level, part is this negative view, part is profit taking based on TA. But the whole thing and timing is really interesting, it seems so manipulated.
From reading that very negative blog about TSTC, decided to do some research myself. Went to their Chinese website. It stated it signed a contract with China Mobile to supply equipments. It should be true,nobody dares to make false statement on this n China. It is a company that can recruit postdocs, trust me on this, not every company in China can have postdocs unless its research is strong and leading at least in China. China has really restrictions on who can recruit postdocs, even many professors are not allowed.
From just these two facts, this company is not bad one!
No, It will follow NBG. C and BAC have the dollars they can get from dollar printing, while IRE doesn't.
Haven't visited there for a long time, has MON come back yet?
The major issues bothering MON now
1.Patent on RR soybean will expire in 2014, RR2 yield soybean hasn't been established. Once it is proven by farmers' yield data, it would be game over for Dupont. MON is desperately waiting for good data from its next gerneration potential blockbuster products: Smartstack corn and RR2 yield soybean. Buying MON is like betting on these two products' future
2. Antitrust investigation. This will be important to MON to hold on to its dominant position, for now it holds MON in check for its aggressive business approaches.
3. Roundup pressure. This is tough unless MON also producs its Roundup from a cheaper source, it may be a good idea to do this to fight back some other companies dead blows on this.
4. Commodity is down
5. Economy worldwise is seeing the second dip while US and China are cutting back on stimulus and Europe is in debt trouble.
For MON, I see good value here, the dominant player should get a value of at least 17xPE. Betting on the performance of its two potential blockbuster products for now is not a bad bet at 54. it would be wise to gradually accumulate shares at this level.
but also something wrong. This antitrust investigation will not hurt MON very much in the end. it will be a pretty long process, it will not hurt MON's sale in a short term, but will hinder its aggressive sale approach later on. Mon is too aggressive to push the limits on its competitors.Being dominant is one thing, being too greedy and too aggressive is another.
I wouldn't touch it for a while. Dollar will firm more when the stimilus scale back, which will hurt commodity. MON is all smoke, more risk than reward at this level. The market seems in correction mode too.
Today's earning report is bad for two reasons: 1) Herbicide sale is worse than expected. 2) even worse, seed sale is suprisingly worse,especially south America sale, if you consider how strong it was a year ago for south America when the wheather was not very good for planting. This year, it supposes to be a record year for south America, yet MON's sale is down, which could mean the competition is eating up MON's share there.
Why it is not down today?
CEO hang out a few beautiful decorations: 11 potential products advanced in the pipeline. How big is it? not much, other than Smarstax already on the market and Roundup ready 2 yield for Brazil, others will have low impact even they are eventually commercialized.
I was really hoping MON could turn around the 2Q, but it looks unlikely. If MON couldn't even win in South America, it won't in the US, the pressure will be even more. If MON could delivey the promised 3.10 EPS, it can be considered as good, but it will be a tough task.
It will go nowhere because of the earning. The company already told wall street what the numbers will be. It may slightly down after earning, since people will compare the numbers to last years. We all know the story about glyphosate, so it really depends on the numbers for seeds, my guess is the number for seeds will be slitghly better than last year, but the storry line will be like this: earning down from 0.98 1q last year to -0.05 1q 2010. Some people wil sell because of this. If it goes up after earning, don't chase, if it goes down a lot, accumulate more. But most likely it will go nowhere.
Actually, right now is big fish eating small fish. Big institutions actually accumulated a lot shares. When they plunged the stock from 42-11s, big fish took out longs, now they will squeeze shorts. If you got out during the shakeout, then wait and see. This is typical manipulation, if general market coorporate, it will go up little by little everyday, untill shorts are driven insane and start coving like crazy, then it will correct. There is volativity, there is money, that is how big players manipulate.
I've been involved a couple times with stock pay special divident.If you hold through ex-divident day, yet sale before the payout, your divident will be tansferred to the one who buy your share. Anyway, it will be reflected on the share price, it is not like you are getting it extra. When a stock sometimes pay out special cash distribution, you should pay attention, because sometimes the distribution is tax-free, so you can convert your capital gain and avoid tax.
It seems the resistance around 78-79 is pretty significant, with SMA200 at 79.3. If Mon can stay here for a while, it may go to 82-84 area, but I really doubt it will happen. Bottom line is anyone bought around 66-68 should feel comfortable holding it.
I doubt, there is really nothing new other than the planting acerage for its new corn will be at the upper range as previously stated. But the management did a good job by picking the right time to do release the news when the general market is good.It will probaly be manipulated at 75, the max pain option price. After that, MON will be market performance. The news basically upgraded MON from underperform to markt perform.