congrats to longs. I was hoping this would go the distance. But I will take a 5 bagger.
the trades seem to suggest they are fighting tooth and nail to find shares. Still alot of manipulations. But you are right, no urgency yet; also no shares to buy.
a little bird told me, SNY is buying mnkd after their trial run with AFrezza. ONLY a group of docs have been prescribing AFrezza. The rest of the half million docs can prescribe but if they don't know Afrezza, they can't prescribe.
their morale is all time low and they are caving, something is gonna give and this will fly.
release one major TV ad, costs about $5-10 million, 4 weeks later they get about 225,000 scripts. Multiply that by $2000-3,000 per prescription, $500,000,000 in revenue. Not a bad return!
if you noticed the number of scripts each month plateaus at 500-600/wk. There are 30 million diabetics in the US and 500,000 docs who can prescribe. The question is why did SNY stop pushing Afrezza?
The question is what happened there? Was there a conflict between Mnkd and SNY? Was there another buyer that Mnkd wanted to sell to that angered SNY? Clearly if Mnkd was actively still searching for a buyer while they were still in a partnership with SNY, this would prevent SNY from fully spending a lot of money on Ads and sales. Just like any relationship, if a girl you are dating is actively dating other guys, would you put much effort into the girl? The same difference. Hence, SNY stopped pushing Afrezza. It is evidenced that the number of scripts plateaus around 500-600/wk which means that the number of prescribers has also remained constant since July/August of 2015.
There are 500,000 doctors in the US and the number of diabetes is around 30 million in the US. Thus, getting 500-600/wk of scripts does not make any sense. Hold and add more shares, the show has not started yet and most investors think it is over.
NO, the 500,000 is the approximate number of internists, family practitioners, and endocrinologists. I only included the docs who will most likely be prescribing Afrezza. These are just the generalists and endos.
My suggestion for the shorts, don't get too cocky or comfortable with your short positions. You have made some profits, get out while you can. Mnkd is an extremely dangerous short. There are 20 years to every drug patent, a lot of time left. When a launch isn't really a launch, you have to wonder, what else is lurking in the silence. YOur portfollios can be wiped out. David Einhorn's portfollio suffered 20% down due to Green Mt short; he was most likely in the 10-20% positive if it had not been for his bad short position.
Don't know Jason Karp, small potato. Einhorn is among Carl Icahn's elite, and they still get slaughtered.
you can hire a 12 yo kid to easily kill something but if you want success you hire an expert. So, you think, the new CEO was hired to kill Afrezza because he was one of the leaders in failing Exubera? I think it is more like, he was hired because of his experience in launching inhale insulin, he knew why it failed, now he can do a better job.
If they had a real launch then I would take your words for Afrezza failure. But if you asked around pharmacies, doctors, and patients and most (if not all) have said they have not heard of Afrezza, then it hasn't really launched yet.
You are making the assumption that they launched and failed. I am saying all they did was a trial launch with selected group of docs and patients; thereby, SNY has achieved cheap mnkd shares and they have a better idea on how Afrezza is doing in a controlled market.
BTW, they told you it is a "controlled launch". which part of that did you not understand?
you are in denial if you think that 500,000 docs to 30 million patients, and they maxed out at 600 pt/wk, every week for the last 4 months, isn't sand bagging. Snap out of it, you are not thinking straight.
it's a new drug, if you don't tell the docs about a new drug or technology, they will never know. 99.999% of docs retain only what they learned in Med school and residency; new materials have to be brought to them.
we are all in it to make money, no grudges. The short coverings from the lows will help share price to a higher peaks. Example, if they start covering now, they will make some profits and use that money to buy back even at a higher price, and it peaks even higher highs. Everyone wins, even the shorts. But if we go against each other, then everyone loses. 500% spike from $7 is better than 500% spike from $2.
you have access to the internet and docs, try calling 100 of docs and see how many actually know about Afrezza. You will be lucky if you encounter just ONE.
that's SNY influence and their duty, so why aren't they getting enough tiers 2? But there are now several tiers 2 coverages to earn much better scripts but why not? It comes down to SNY (not teaching docs and not getting enough tiers 2). Why only several tiers 2? if you can convince 3 insurance companies for tiers 2, then you can convince the rest.