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School Specialty Inc. Message Board

captainodestin 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 9, 2016 7:29 PM Member since: Dec 21, 2007
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  • Reply to

    What will Genworth Stock Price be 18 months

    by anthonyp165 Jul 9, 2016 8:18 AM
    captainodestin captainodestin Jul 9, 2016 7:29 PM Flag

    Of course the market will care about the company's book value. It will happen when/if they manage to 'isolate and separate" the LTC business as they are trying to do.

    As of their last statements on the split of the equity among their various lines of business they reported that their "margin" ( i. e. equity) in LTC was about $2.5 billion. Total equity is around $12.5 or $13 billion, so GNW has around $10 billion in equity outside of LTC. That is about $20 per share held outside of LTC.

    Now imagine that sometime next year they have isolated and separated LTC from the rest of GNW. At that point the market will absolutely care about the book value of GNW, because at that point another company or even hedge fund could simply buy GNW and then split off the LTC business into a separate company and then carry out an orderly sell off of GNW's other businesses and realize most if not all of that $20 per share in equity. ( The US mi, Can mi and Au mi could likely be sold for a premium to book if a year or two was patiently spent finding the right buyer) Even if the the buyer paid $5 billion for GNW ($10 per share) they would still make another $5 billion for themselves for a couple years work in selling the pieces off. IF THEY SUCCEED IN ISOLATING AND SEPARATING LTC, THEN EVERYBODY WILL CARE ABOUT THE BOOK VALUE HERE

  • Reply to

    Data

    by reyesrocks22 Jun 30, 2016 6:24 PM
    captainodestin captainodestin Jul 3, 2016 10:50 PM Flag

    Should be a couple years in the future for actual data readouts.

    Early stage bios like TPIV are not for investment. They are penny flippers only.

  • Do a google search. It seems it been raining heavily all the month of may in Texas and there is widespread flooding. Even worse apparently than the flooding that caused the huge losses on the Texas projects that caused GV to report back to back quarterly a year or so back. No way to know what effect that it might have on GV now because they do not share info except what is happening at the company except for a brief statement with the Q reports. No way of knowing what projects they have underway in Texas or how they might be effected again until you see the next q report.

    I sold the last half of my shares yesterday because I can't risk my profits from the $1.60's on the chance they will report a disaster in a couple months from now and once again blame Texas flooding.

    The best of luck to all here. Unlike most yahoo boards this is a good one.

  • Reply to

    I sold half today

    by captainodestin May 24, 2016 6:59 PM
    captainodestin captainodestin May 24, 2016 10:53 PM Flag

    You mistake my meaning.

    I also believe that GV will go higher in time. I simply believe that it has gone to far up to quickly. I am not a great believer in charts but look at a one year chart and tell me that GV is not wildly overextended over the last few months. I just believe that that I can buy the shares that I sold cheaper in the future if I choose to do so.

    You are also counting your chickens before they hatch with the 8 cent earnings next quarter. I am thinking something like 6 to 8 cents next quarter, so I have no problem seeing them earn your 8 cents next quarter, BUT I also understand that the history of the company is one of erratic earnings. The company's history is that its earnings are splattered all over the place. I think they will have good earnings for this quarter, but I also do not overlook the possibility that their earnings will be poor or even a loss. Their history is erratic earnings like that.

    In any case, I purchased my shares in the $1.60's some time back and selling half today made me some nice change.

  • captainodestin by captainodestin May 24, 2016 6:59 PM Flag

    I think it has come too far to fast.

    I keep half though in case it goes higher. I think I will be able to buy back the shares I sold today cheaper and I intend to do so If I am right. It just seems to me that we are getting this last spike today and yesterday because of this Tran fellow bringing in day traders.

    Look at today's volume and price action. Gaped up 5 cents to $2.88 at the open and and then closed only 4 cents higher @ $2.92 on volume of over a million shares. Basically every one that bought and held to the close is in the red. Pure day trader action.

    If I can't buy back the shares cheaper before the next earnings release, I am pretty sure I will be able to do so after the release. I absolutely do not see last quarters earnings being repeated which will means disappointment on unrealistic expectations not being met. That should cause a selloff as the traders and short timers exit and let me buy back my sold shares cheaper. (but still kept half because ya never can be sure of these things)

  • captainodestin captainodestin May 18, 2016 11:17 PM Flag

    I have thought about this issue for awhile and I have come to the conclusion that there isn't likely to be much institutional ownership here. i think there won't be because I think management doesn't want there to be any.

    They do not hold conference calls. They do not give guidance. They do not present at any of the many small cap conferences. After a few brief comments given with the quarterly results they remain completely silent until the next earnings report where they again make only a few brief comments.

    It seems to me that the most likely explanation of these things is simply that management has made the active decision to avoid institutional investment in "their" company. I think they want to run (and do so run) GV as if it were a private business and not a publicly traded company and think that institutional ownership would get in the way of their doing so. Because of this I do not see management ever doing any of the ordinary things ( like having conference calls) that are needed for an institution to take and hold a position in GV.

  • captainodestin captainodestin May 14, 2016 1:14 PM Flag

    I do not believe that the trailing PE for GV is relevant. I do not think it is relevant because I do not see first quarter results being repeated.

    My reasoning is that at year end they reported backlog of "project specific firm contracts" to be realized over the next 12 months of $57 million. At the end of the first quarter that had declined to a more normal figure for GV of $36.6 million. This leads me to believe that they ended the year with an unusual amount of short term work contracts that they fulfilled in the first quarter and the result was a bump up in both revenues and margins as their fixed costs were spread across the higher revenues. I think that in future quarters their earnings will be around the 7 and 9 cents they earned in Q3 and Q4 of last year.

    Earning 7 to 9 cents a quarter going forward would be great. I just hope that everybody keeps their expectations realistic so that the stock doesn't get crushed when they don't report another 17 cent eps quarter in three months.

  • Reply to

    Why the heavy volume today and up 16%

    by jd39souza98 May 11, 2016 4:01 PM
    captainodestin captainodestin May 12, 2016 6:07 AM Flag

    It's $heff's new pump and dump

  • This is not to say that the stock will be up again today or even close higher for the whole week. Who knows what it's going to do today or this week, but if you have a bit of patience I think it goes higher than Fridays close of $2.40

    The reason why I think it will go higher than Fridays $2.40 close is that stocks almost always trade based on earnings. Sometimes they trade based on other things like revenues or book value, but about 90% of the time a stock ends up being priced on its earnings. That is just the way it goes with stocks and the earnings here are just too much for a $2.40 stock price to be the top.

  • captainodestin captainodestin May 8, 2016 9:07 AM Flag

    I was thinking a 10 cent quarter would be wonderful, but instead they start 2016 out of the gate with 17 cents in earnings for the first quarter. I was thinking the stock might be worth $5 or $6 this year if they could get one 10 cents EPS quarter this year and then maybe average 8 cents per for the other quarters. I have no idea what to think now.

  • SEC regs require them to file the first quarter report on or before May 15, but as May 15 falls on a Sunday this year, they have until May 16 to file the Q report.

    Sometime in the next 9 market days we will see the first quarter results. Looking forward to it myself.

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