The alternative to the deal not going thru is BK. You know that, especially after reading the proxy. Going with CG, you get all the previous benefits of TC plus an undervalued CG and some interesting opportunities. TC will help take some of the geographic risk out of CG, as will CG going to a 50/50 JV on Kumtor.
Let me know here what you learn of others.
Has everyone gotten lost due to the Yahoo chg. I see you've posted on Stockhouse.
Where has Ultra gone. Do you know if he is staying with CG.
Canadian or US dollars?
Since March, CG has had several catalysts..
Higher gold prices
Agreement on Kyrgyz mine thru 12/16
Approval from Mongolian govt on the mine there
TC acquisition at a good price (and all of TC's upcoming catalysts)
This statement seems confusing. Are their shares non voting shares?
Kyrgyzaltyn, which has a 33 percent stake in Centerra, said on Thursday it had not been informed about the planned deal in advance and opposed it because the move would dilute Kyrgyzaltyn's holdings.
Kyrgyzaltyn said it would look at the deal in more detail once it received the required information from Centerra. The Kyrgyz company cannot block the deal.
From a Dec 2015 news article...
"Centerra, which operates Kumtor, has been in talks with Kyrgyzstan for almost two years on a deal that would involve the ex-Soviet republic swapping its 32.7 percent stake in Centerra for half of a joint venture that would control the gold deposit."
Also, "RBC analyst Stephen Walker said the move should be neutral to Centerra shares,"
You've just laid out some of the reasons to move on. If you vote for it, you get to move on. If you vote against it, you'll have the same mgmt team and 0 cents.
2 other articles I have on Seeking Alpha are positive on this deal, especially for TC shareholders. They all see the alternative as BK. You can bite your tongue and vote for it and get 60 cents or you can vote against it out of spite and get 0 cents. I've lost more than most on this board and I'll take the 60 cents.
It's sort of like the US elections. Both candidates are distasteful and downright awful. But, come this fall I'll be biting my tongue and voting for one of them.
In conclusion, I think this deal is pretty fair for all three companies involved. Thompson Creek shareholders bought out at a premium and gets a solution to its debt woes. Centerra gets to diversify its operations and obtains a long-life, low-cost gold and copper mine. Royal Gold secures its interest in Mt. Milligan by restructuring the gold stream.
The question is, which stock is the best buy here? I'm leaning towards Centerra Gold over Royal Gold based on valuation. Centerra has significant re-rating potential following the closing of this deal as it trades well below its peers based on Price/NAV. The combined company will produce over 700,000 ounces of gold at low AISC and has the chance to grow its total production close to 1 million ounces annually with development of the Oksut and Gatsuurt deposits. I'm looking to add Centerra Gold shares as a result.
I replied earlier but couldn't get it posted. Too much to repeat.
In your earnings, did you take into account possible moly production and the start up of their Turkey mine in H2?
Pretty soon, those of us who remain will need to move to another message board. There are 2 options 1) CG.TO where Switch has already posted a message or 2) CAGDF. Neither board has any posting history. I suggest we join Switch in Toronto when it's time to move on. CG gets a lot more volume on the Toronto exchange.
We need to get up to speed on CG.
I know but many here were hoping for $1.00, $1.75, $2.40 and all we got was $.60. Hard to swallow.
CG will really have to move up over the next 12 mos (2-3x)
That was back in 2012. CG hasn't participated much in gold's recent advance. Probably because of their Kyrgyk mine problems.
It should be accretive to CG because we know of several catalysts for TC.
TCM permitting this month?
With higher moly prices in H2, maybe they can resume mining moly at TCM
With the 2nd crusher, they should be able to produce 90-100 lbs in 2017.
Of course, we're hoping for higher gold, copper and moly prices.
We've become much more gold dependent due to the new stream agreement and CG.
I feel the new gold/copper stream exchange is costing them, especially if copper production goes up in 2017.
Plus around $660m in net debt. So call it $800m. We were hoping for $1b for MM plus $200m + for the moly operations. So, $800m vs a hoped for $1.2b. That difference isd @ $1.75.
If and when they start mining moly again, it may help our "new stock."