I think the worm may have finally turned in aal's favor vs other airlines but they have a ways to go in improving their ops which they have acknowledged and of course there are many things beyond managements control like ulcc capacity, fuel costs, demand, Europe, economies....not clear to me that aal is going to be repriced at a higher multiple as of yet. I'm still basing FMV at about 7 PE which at 5.50 puts pps at 38.50. Once market puts higher multiple of about 10 is when aal will be a big moneymaker for longs...just a lot of things beyond managements control in airline business but aal clearly going to have better yoy comps going forward which is what I expected and of course the move away from prasm to rasm very good.
Others definitely disagreed with me Bears...my point always was exactly what Kirby said that aal had specific issues/headwinds that other airlines did not have and of course that is why aal stock got hammered vs LUV and DAL...never said those issues were caused by management, just bad luck. For example, who even heard of the Wright Amendment which its expiration created the Love Field issues...if better luck it would have expired in 2018, not 2014 !
//We took a step back from, well, a few big things that disproportionately impacted American and these kinds of things are cyclical and they will eventually come back. But you look at Venezuela first, which had RASM that was four times our system average and the country fell apart. And you had Brazil which was 80% something above system average and the country fell apart. Those were massive, massive headwinds that drove 3 to 4 points, just those two issues, 3 to 4 points of system PRASM and 3 to 4 points of margin decline. So, the hell we had to overcome to get back on those things was bigger, because those big macro exogenous events disproportionately impacted American. //
So do the posters on this board who said Brazil/Venny were insignificant still believe that? Perfect example of wearing those rose colored glasses. Don't mean to be cocky but every time I pointed out in the past year and half that aal was being badly hurt by Brazil/Venny more than other airlines I caught a lot of flack...ditto Love Field
//Nope, the Buyback should End ASAP, 500m shares is good enough//
Yup, and where the hell is our 20c divvy increase ? That's a measly 100m year...goofy annals didn't ask if more buyback money coming or why no divvy increase...Parker behaved better, not as much pie in the sky everything is great bs, which is ironic because outlook has improved whereas before the outlook sucked...
Only because it has had one about every six months for not very good reasons last August , boyear and end of June Market could hold up if SP earnings outlook looks good, should know after this weeks reports. USMI looking good, don't think you could say that about Canada and especially Australia
I am expecting the 2q to be solid like the 1q but 3 and 4 q could be treacherous as market due for another one of its panic attacks in which case Gnw will get crushed like did in boyear and with Brexit unless 2q report has some .great news which is unlikely. There has been NO news since 1q report so swimming in the dark going into 8-2
Good option vs selling to Arch/ Essex assuming will receive big divies after the sale from Canada as majority owner. No hurry to do this but iMo it is Gnw ace in hole if push comes to shove and have to pay down debt. I am assuming their are no regulatory barriers that would prevent the sale.
Stock rose during ccall when 3q margin guide of 12-14% given which surprised me as last year was 17.7 and guide would have been about 15% if down same percent as 2q was down yoy...guess market was expecting even lower margin guide
Atlantic numbers and guide will be weak, question will be how weak . Won't matter if prasm and margin guides are good and increase divy