Looks like LTC will be in runoff, Chinese will not put more capital in so may become insolvent like Penn Treaty so why would regs let glaic be destacked from glic ?
FYI, many companies with high BV have gone BK, its called a lack of liquidity/capital...especially insurance where have to project future capital requirements...
I think the Chinese will only bail if the 4q margin testing is really bad , otherwise the deal will go thru imo. The Chinese are not saying they will put more capital into ltc if losses continue but that will likely be after the deal closes barring terrible margin testing. I don't believe regs or shareholders will stop the deal because they know there are no better alternatives. This is really a gift frankly from the Chinese, analyst asked CEO if any other interested parties and he didn't answer which means there were not.
I agree with King Fish but only if margins average about 12% for 2017 which is what Parker and pals said they expected once fuel rose. They are saying 4q very low margin was a one off, I have my doubts. Looks like 2017 margin will be more like 8-10%..
My plan is to bet on pps recovering to about 5-5.20$ by January and than selling before the margin review report to push my gains into 2017. There should not be any negative news until the 4q margin review report.
Yup margin reviews and based on comments on call today can bet will be more significant charges...and CEO would not acknowledge that those charges were factored into the deal. Also Chinese will not put more capital into ltc than stated.. not very reassuring call IMO
Due to concerns deal will not close. IMO shareholders and regulators will ok the deal , my concern is possible change of mind by Chinese if 4q reviews bad like 3q, I have not listened to ccall to see if this issue was addressed
At a 5% discount pps would be at 5.16, would be low range imo...could trade up also as no antitrust issues like att/twx buyout and insurance regulators will love it...
Correcto, and likely more charges to come at 4q report when do margin testing....why they sold out. PPS likely would have dropped well below 4$ especially if market sold down.
I agree with King Fish but even I have a hard time believing if the Yates girls eps of 3.75 ends up correct. Historically airlines pe has been about 10, that's only 37.50 share , 45$ on 2018 eps. Can see 50$ or more with 4.50 eps and 12 pe. Should Parker be believed that 4q crummy margin a one off ? If he's wrong than Yates lowball eps is right. Talk of "peak margins" last year ended up being correct but Aal has said when fuel rose would still have 12-13% margins, we shall see...
A fish screwed up my twitter takeover bet, came out with a 17$ pt Monday after the news when pps was 22$ and moving up, sold my calls at no gain and then pps hit 25$...dam fish. Use correct then?
Bought some shares Friday , looks like will be able to sell Monday for nice profit. Big opportunity was when news came out that Alk and Jblu were after VA....price jumped from 28 to 31$ and within couple weeks was at 55$...these merger news ops can be easy money...too risky for Uncle?