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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

cavalier2015 272 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Nov 5, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Why are 2017 estimates so low?

    by dmspilot00 Jul 27, 2016 10:33 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 28, 2016 1:16 AM Flag

    3q 2015 margin was 17.7 vs 12-14 estimate for this year...much lower than I expected and of course revs less than last year...not a good combination and if fuel rises significantly margins will be even lower.

  • Reply to

    My PT

    by cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 5:05 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 28, 2016 1:04 AM Flag

    Hedges were ahead of the curve, they missed the gravy from 40-55 but also cashed out before big sell off and were able to invest elsewhere and not tie money up for 2years in dead stock

  • Reply to

    Ted reed article

    by dca1186 Jul 26, 2016 10:51 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 28, 2016 1:02 AM Flag

    And would have sold all shares but would owe ton in taxes as already owe a lot on shares already sold

  • Reply to

    Ted reed article

    by dca1186 Jul 26, 2016 10:51 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 28, 2016 12:59 AM Flag

    There you go again Bears, not reading or understanding my posts...FYI have sold majority of my shares and remainder hedged with sold jan 38$ calls

  • Reply to

    My PT

    by cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 5:05 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 10:28 PM Flag

    Big three are controlling capacity and LUV getting in line but ulccs still adding massive capacity, see if SAVE throttles back on Friday...big problem with 2015 estimates were that eps ended up much less than expected with fuel savings of 5B. High end eps estimates were 10-12$ share but aal retained much less than expected from fuel savings and there were no merger savings rather additional costs...

  • Reply to

    My PT

    by cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 5:05 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 10:10 PM Flag

    Oh really? So please tell me when they said no cash taxes till 2019/20 ?

  • Reply to

    My PT

    by cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 5:05 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 9:20 PM Flag

    JPM Baker cut pt to 41.50 from 50.50, he's always high so my pt likely more accurate...will revisit 32-33 on market drop of 3-5% which aint much of a drop...

  • Reply to

    My PT

    by cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 5:05 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 8:43 PM Flag

    Your badly mistaken wgr, 8.5 pretax would have been 75$ share, if it was brought up at all it was very little especially on this board where everyone was yapping about the PE being 4-5.. analysts rarely if ever addressed the valuation on a taxed basis especially 1q of 2015 and 2016 estimates which were much lower no one had a clue whether they were taxed or untaxed until late 2015. regardless, the FACT is the correct valuation was at a taxed PE of 8-10 and untaxed at 5-6 and those are at the high pps of 55-56$..

    Interesting that aal will not have cash taxes until 2019/20, don't you think management should have told us that a year or two ago? Maybe if they did aal would have had a higher valuation, everyone including me thought they would be paying cash taxes this year....don't get at all why they held back such critical info..

  • Reply to

    Ted reed article

    by dca1186 Jul 26, 2016 10:51 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 8:06 PM Flag

    //

    Then Alaska CEO Brad Tilden spoke up. Tilden addressed Keay. He said that Keay was "making a great point," that "I think Brandon does agree with you," and that the airline industry has shifted its focus over the years, from cost per available seat mile, to return on invested capital, and now to PRASM.

    Tilden was right, of course. In any industry, key metrics shift. But for now, in the airline industry, the key metric is PRASM.

    Woe be to anyone who proclaims that the emperor of PRASM has no clothes//

    Man I hate it when I'm right and I still get slaughtered..yes it has been all about the base(prasm) not treble (everything else)... the horror. You all can rip on King Fish but he has been right as far as what the market values and that is all that matters in stock investing

  • Reply to

    My PT

    by cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 5:05 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 7:11 PM Flag

    I guess the only good think is that once mr. market decides aal deserves a 10-12 PE the pps will go up a lot for not much reason other than that. IMO pe will reset higher very fast IF market feels revenues/income will be increasing yoy for a couple years. The pe is so low it wont take big inceases either, 5% revenue and 10% income inceases would do it...clock is ticking though with economies and politics shaky, market at all time highs due a lot to easy central banks. Airlines could easily have already run out of time by gorging on easy fuel profits , adding capacity in excess of demand/gdp...

    I'm pretty much with Baker and the "show me" camp and will be on sidelines until clear that revs improving and capacity under control. If I miss the turn up so be it...

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 5:05 PM Flag

    38.50 based on 5.50 eps at 7 PE...7 PE is crazy low but it is what market is assigning to Aal . I thought Aal would have been reprised by now at a higher PE of 10-12 but revenue pressure has prevented it. PE was briefly at 10-11 taxed eps when pps was 55$ last year but untaxed eps misled everyone imo...big mistake by analysts and investors

  • Reply to

    GNW

    by bookerone2000 Jul 27, 2016 10:27 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 12:08 PM Flag

    3.50 was downside resistance before Brexit so I would think on decent report would get back there and higher if better than expected report

  • Reply to

    Yates wants to be as Right as possible

    by unclespeaking Jul 25, 2016 1:31 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 25, 2016 3:21 PM Flag

    I am not impressed with the 3q prasm or margin guides. Thought both would be better especially the margin...hard to see pps moving up much IMO. I sold shares bought at 32.50 will look at getting back in on likely market pullback

  • Reply to

    Yates wants to be as Right as possible

    by unclespeaking Jul 25, 2016 1:31 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 25, 2016 6:16 AM Flag

    She looks like a fool, she should have waited until 2q report before her big downgrade. If she did I imagine her pt would be even higher

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 24, 2016 6:46 PM Flag

    Bullish article on mtg/Rdn ...saying 50% upside and mergers possible among MIs...may explain heavy bids at end of day Friday, see if pps pops some tomorrow

  • Reply to

    3q Margin

    by cavalier2015 Jul 22, 2016 10:25 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 24, 2016 6:43 PM Flag

    UBS guy says 3q rasm/margin guides beat consensus guides. Guess have to call him before 3q report so he can tell me what the consensus 4q guides are because I have never heard any consensus guides on rasm/ margin given for upcoming quarter.

  • Reply to

    Brazil/Venny

    by cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 7:22 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 24, 2016 3:21 PM Flag

    Bears, with all due respect , I am beginning to question your ability to understand my posts. Please tell me how managements solid performance impacted Brazil/ Vennt/ Love Field ? The pps was going to drop no matter what management did, get my point now or are just twisting my words like you have done in the past. And by the way 55 to 25 is not a bump it's a crater...

  • Reply to

    Brazil/Venny

    by cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 7:22 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 24, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    Hello, i'd say pps going from 55 to 25 would qualify as half empty being the right call...I am more interested in the performance of the stock than management...I now feel glass is half full because yoy revenue comps are improving, I always have said its all about prasm/revenues and that was 100% correct. Anyone that thinks its a virtue staying in a stock because they believe management is doing the right thing even though it is irrelevant to the stocks short/mid term outlook is making a mistake, I know because I have made that mistake many times including with aal. . When the glass becomes half empty always best to get out of Dodge until it is half full again.

    Will be interesting to see if aal stock continues up from Friday's gains and what annals have to say. PPS up almost 50% from recent low...

  • Reply to

    Stock buyback

    by daubjj Jul 22, 2016 10:34 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 10:41 PM Flag

    I don't think Parker ever dreamed that pps would drop to 25$...he may have yapped less because he's been beat up pretty could with all his the industry has changed talk while by all indications it has not as far as fare wars go. Underestimated the ulccs desire to add massive capacity

  • Reply to

    No tax man until 2019

    by bearsrunfrombulls Jul 23, 2016 8:04 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 10:35 PM Flag

    I was surprised to hear that news which is very positive...still a mystery to me how it all works...they had aboutv10b in carry forwards a year or two ago and have had huge profits since , would have .thought losses would have been eaten up by now.

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