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Doral Financial Corp. Message Board

cavalier2015 3208 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Nov 5, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Yates wants to be as Right as possible

    by unclespeaking Jul 25, 2016 1:31 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 18 hours ago Flag

    I am not impressed with the 3q prasm or margin guides. Thought both would be better especially the margin...hard to see pps moving up much IMO. I sold shares bought at 32.50 will look at getting back in on likely market pullback

  • Reply to

    Yates wants to be as Right as possible

    by unclespeaking Jul 25, 2016 1:31 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 25, 2016 6:16 AM Flag

    She looks like a fool, she should have waited until 2q report before her big downgrade. If she did I imagine her pt would be even higher

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 24, 2016 6:46 PM Flag

    Bullish article on mtg/Rdn ...saying 50% upside and mergers possible among MIs...may explain heavy bids at end of day Friday, see if pps pops some tomorrow

  • Reply to

    3q Margin

    by cavalier2015 Jul 22, 2016 10:25 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 24, 2016 6:43 PM Flag

    UBS guy says 3q rasm/margin guides beat consensus guides. Guess have to call him before 3q report so he can tell me what the consensus 4q guides are because I have never heard any consensus guides on rasm/ margin given for upcoming quarter.

  • Reply to

    Brazil/Venny

    by cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 7:22 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 24, 2016 3:21 PM Flag

    Bears, with all due respect , I am beginning to question your ability to understand my posts. Please tell me how managements solid performance impacted Brazil/ Vennt/ Love Field ? The pps was going to drop no matter what management did, get my point now or are just twisting my words like you have done in the past. And by the way 55 to 25 is not a bump it's a crater...

  • Reply to

    Brazil/Venny

    by cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 7:22 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 24, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    Hello, i'd say pps going from 55 to 25 would qualify as half empty being the right call...I am more interested in the performance of the stock than management...I now feel glass is half full because yoy revenue comps are improving, I always have said its all about prasm/revenues and that was 100% correct. Anyone that thinks its a virtue staying in a stock because they believe management is doing the right thing even though it is irrelevant to the stocks short/mid term outlook is making a mistake, I know because I have made that mistake many times including with aal. . When the glass becomes half empty always best to get out of Dodge until it is half full again.

    Will be interesting to see if aal stock continues up from Friday's gains and what annals have to say. PPS up almost 50% from recent low...

  • Reply to

    Stock buyback

    by daubjj Jul 22, 2016 10:34 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 10:41 PM Flag

    I don't think Parker ever dreamed that pps would drop to 25$...he may have yapped less because he's been beat up pretty could with all his the industry has changed talk while by all indications it has not as far as fare wars go. Underestimated the ulccs desire to add massive capacity

  • Reply to

    No tax man until 2019

    by bearsrunfrombulls Jul 23, 2016 8:04 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 10:35 PM Flag

    I was surprised to hear that news which is very positive...still a mystery to me how it all works...they had aboutv10b in carry forwards a year or two ago and have had huge profits since , would have .thought losses would have been eaten up by now.

  • Reply to

    Looking good long term

    by tradingadollar Jul 22, 2016 5:58 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 10:23 PM Flag

    Of course it will if report solid which I am expecting and market stable and of course it will not if another market panic attack regardless if report positive. Stocks especially high beta like Gnw do not trade in a vacuum . Saying Gnw has upward momentum is a bit overstated imo...ppps still well below pre Brexit levels with market at record high

  • Reply to

    Brazil/Venny

    by cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 7:22 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 10:15 PM Flag

    I think the worm may have finally turned in aal's favor vs other airlines but they have a ways to go in improving their ops which they have acknowledged and of course there are many things beyond managements control like ulcc capacity, fuel costs, demand, Europe, economies....not clear to me that aal is going to be repriced at a higher multiple as of yet. I'm still basing FMV at about 7 PE which at 5.50 puts pps at 38.50. Once market puts higher multiple of about 10 is when aal will be a big moneymaker for longs...just a lot of things beyond managements control in airline business but aal clearly going to have better yoy comps going forward which is what I expected and of course the move away from prasm to rasm very good.

  • Reply to

    Brazil/Venny

    by cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 7:22 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 10:03 PM Flag

    Others definitely disagreed with me Bears...my point always was exactly what Kirby said that aal had specific issues/headwinds that other airlines did not have and of course that is why aal stock got hammered vs LUV and DAL...never said those issues were caused by management, just bad luck. For example, who even heard of the Wright Amendment which its expiration created the Love Field issues...if better luck it would have expired in 2018, not 2014 !

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 7:22 PM Flag

    //We took a step back from, well, a few big things that disproportionately impacted American and these kinds of things are cyclical and they will eventually come back. But you look at Venezuela first, which had RASM that was four times our system average and the country fell apart. And you had Brazil which was 80% something above system average and the country fell apart. Those were massive, massive headwinds that drove 3 to 4 points, just those two issues, 3 to 4 points of system PRASM and 3 to 4 points of margin decline. So, the hell we had to overcome to get back on those things was bigger, because those big macro exogenous events disproportionately impacted American. //

    So do the posters on this board who said Brazil/Venny were insignificant still believe that? Perfect example of wearing those rose colored glasses. Don't mean to be cocky but every time I pointed out in the past year and half that aal was being badly hurt by Brazil/Venny more than other airlines I caught a lot of flack...ditto Love Field

  • Reply to

    Stock buyback

    by daubjj Jul 22, 2016 10:34 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 7:15 PM Flag

    //Nope, the Buyback should End ASAP, 500m shares is good enough//

    Yup, and where the hell is our 20c divvy increase ? That's a measly 100m year...goofy annals didn't ask if more buyback money coming or why no divvy increase...Parker behaved better, not as much pie in the sky everything is great bs, which is ironic because outlook has improved whereas before the outlook sucked...

  • Reply to

    Looking good long term

    by tradingadollar Jul 22, 2016 5:58 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 23, 2016 2:23 PM Flag

    Only because it has had one about every six months for not very good reasons last August , boyear and end of June Market could hold up if SP earnings outlook looks good, should know after this weeks reports. USMI looking good, don't think you could say that about Canada and especially Australia

  • Reply to

    Looking good long term

    by tradingadollar Jul 22, 2016 5:58 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 22, 2016 10:03 PM Flag

    I am expecting the 2q to be solid like the 1q but 3 and 4 q could be treacherous as market due for another one of its panic attacks in which case Gnw will get crushed like did in boyear and with Brexit unless 2q report has some .great news which is unlikely. There has been NO news since 1q report so swimming in the dark going into 8-2

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 22, 2016 4:51 PM Flag

    Good option vs selling to Arch/ Essex assuming will receive big divies after the sale from Canada as majority owner. No hurry to do this but iMo it is Gnw ace in hole if push comes to shove and have to pay down debt. I am assuming their are no regulatory barriers that would prevent the sale.

  • Reply to

    3q Margin

    by cavalier2015 Jul 22, 2016 10:25 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 22, 2016 11:17 AM Flag

    No rose to the second margin guide given ..

  • Reply to

    3q Margin

    by cavalier2015 Jul 22, 2016 10:25 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 22, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    No he did not...

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 22, 2016 10:25 AM Flag

    Stock rose during ccall when 3q margin guide of 12-14% given which surprised me as last year was 17.7 and guide would have been about 15% if down same percent as 2q was down yoy...guess market was expecting even lower margin guide

  • Reply to

    Kinda early

    by bigslimeydog Jul 21, 2016 3:47 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 21, 2016 5:42 PM Flag

    Though surprised no news at all during 2q, I expected some life/annuity asset sales

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