Cant think of any news all quarter, the lull before the storm ? MTG had solid report today, USMI should keep up its very solid performance, as usual will come down to ltc especially with annual testing this quarter...also any new strategic deveolpments will be key . Good news and pps could gain another 50% in short order, bad news and could see 4.00 share on day of report...buckle up
So will buyback authorization be increased and/or divvy finally increased or neither? My guess is buyback will be increased but less than in past, gave up on predicting a divy increase but if buybacks tapering off, a divvy increase makes sense. Of course also have a little bitty of debt to start paying down
Air travel is silly cheap imo...a lot of people travel free with all the free points, like I have been on my AirTran points now with LUV...friend has shtload of points thru his job and never pays to fly...its crazy I cant think of any other business like it. You don't get free car rentals or hotel rooms ...
Well the big four are all reducing capacity and LA rasm positive..that's different. Problem is still the lcc/ulccs..good read by Dan Reed in Forbes on this issue "Headlines are telling us that airfares are going through the roof! Don't believe it"
Dal 4q operating margin guide of 14-16% vs 3q 19%. Aal reports pretax margin vs operating, what the heil the difference?
Well my va short odyssey is over. Ended up with decent profit but was hoping for a lot better...sold all but a few of puts ..thought you'd like to know Mongo I know you have had a keen interest in this matter.
I will be very surprised if margin that low...my take is Aal is turning the revenue corner as headwinds turn into tailwinds
Your a numbers savant ...yup Aal just like lcc always beats but not by much . Like to see larger beat which is possible if fish have not adjusted up for higher margin guide and better Rasm guide
Your the numbers maven, hope your estimates are right, if they are AND 4q guides and 1q guide(if given) are good than aal stock will be in very good shape for next few quarters. Problem with aal's earnings releases is they do not provide guidance on prasm until the ccall. DAL provided guidance in initial release..
Well mongo it actually relates to Aal, Aal has codeshares with Alk and good odds Alk will have to divest them which would result in lost revenue to Aal. Also, on plus side, if merger ok'd it will be good for airline sector as will have more consolidation
ALK news saying "were good, making good progress with doj and expect early 4q close" well, early 4q is about now imo so should close next week or week after. I still have my doubts that doj will approve but looks like doj has likely extracted several pounds of flesh...guess I'll have to dump my remaining puts, oh well...
Or DOJ will ok Alk merger to show they were not influenced in Aal merger as more of case to stop Aal merger than alks. Alk wants this merger bad assuming DOJ making drop Aal codeshare and other concessions. They want to be west coast King !