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Doral Financial Corp. Message Board

cavalier2015 298 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 25, 2016 3:21 PM Member since: Nov 5, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Bottom Line For GNW Stock

    by cavalier2015 Jul 5, 2016 8:42 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 6, 2016 4:48 AM Flag

    IMO not issuing more shares / dealing with debt issue asap is the most valid criticism of GNW management. The last CFO was very poor imo...

  • Reply to

    Bottom Line For GNW Stock

    by cavalier2015 Jul 5, 2016 8:42 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 6, 2016 4:46 AM Flag

    CEO and annals don't say much about goal of paying off 2B in debt anymore. They have not said how much of that goal has been met, the 2016 debt has been paid off and some other debt so maybe 500m or so ? Ironic that rates are at historical lows yet they cannot refinance at the low rates or even at current rates on their debt of 4.8 to 7.7% which are not really that high. 1B total due in 2018 and 2020 doable, another 1.15 B in 2021 the tougher nut if economies poor and no LI divies..IMO they should have issued more equity shares when pps was 18$ in 2014. 100m new shares at 15$ and no more debt issue and credit ratings would have improved and could have hung on to Aussy shares which pay a big divy. RDN and MTG issued ton of new shares few years ago and pps soared...

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 5, 2016 8:42 PM Flag

    Its all about the debt/liquidity/solvency of the holding company....all all issues are important only as they relate to the debt/solvency issue. The pps has tanked because the recent drop in rates and strengthening of the dollar adversely affects gnw's liquidity and increases the future risk of insolvency if there is a a recession.

    Holding co currently pays 250m in interest expense and has 4B of debt due starting in 2018 that currently must be paid off because no lender will refinance it at reasonable rates. The holdco is projected to receive about 150-200m in divies from Aussy and Canada MI both of which are under some pressure, no dives from anywhere else until next year at earliest . Why CEO keeps saying they must get dives from USMI and GLAIC which cannot occur until/if restructuring is approved an extraordinary divies approved by regulators.

    All segments of GNW business generate about 700m annually in income EX special charges but only Aussy and Canada divies of about 150-200m go to the holding company which must pay the 250m in interest and owes all the debt. If restructuring is successful and additional 50m from USMI and 100-200m from USLI(GLAIC) could go to holding company. Selling more assets still best way to deal with debt/solvency issue, of course if assets sold especially Aussy/GLAIC the income to holding company will decline but the tradeoff is worth it. Staying solvent is number one priority...

    I just summarized all you need to know imo...your welcome !

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 5, 2016 7:22 PM Flag

    We know low rates are not good for gnw portfolio but what about increased refinancing affect on gnw? My research
    Indicates it could be bad as often pmi is dropped when a homeowner refinances if they have enough equity in house. Of course low rates also increase home buying which should increase pmi.

  • Reply to

    Liquidity

    by bruceross1 Jul 4, 2016 12:38 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 4, 2016 8:27 PM Flag

    Believe they mentiond would receive at 1q ccall but agree they should issue a press release when executed...

  • Reply to

    Example of Total BS

    by mongo_great Jul 1, 2016 10:20 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2016 9:51 PM Flag

    //The only think I disagree with you about is Parker being our problem when it comes to making money.// Not what I meant ... most of aal issues have been beyond managements control, my point was that Parker downplayed those issues and gave the clear message that was all smooth flying ahead...

  • Reply to

    Example of Total BS

    by mongo_great Jul 1, 2016 10:20 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2016 4:04 PM Flag

    That was before the 1q prasm warning. I made a killing on Ebola added bunch of shares and sold puts at 30$. Was world class dumb not to significantly cash out in 1q 2015...20/20 hindsight but really disgusted with myself . not talking leaving a few hundred grand on table .. I definitely have a mental block when it comes to cashing out. Have turned numerous big 1 month trades from big gains to big losses. I'm sure if/when I finally do cash out it will end up being too early Think to remember about Aal /lcc is they were 3$ stocks that went to 55...not like they had only doubled..pigs get...

  • Reply to

    Example of Total BS

    by mongo_great Jul 1, 2016 10:20 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    My problem is I stayed long on Aal and several others when at first sign of issues like declining prasm I should have sold asap we have big gains in a stock and negative outlook need to get out asap like others I got snookered by the whole low fuel low value record profits bs when multiple storm clouds were gathering. My point is there is no sense or virtue in staying long when you should be selling...

  • Reply to

    Effect of Buyback on Earning Per Share

    by not_a_short Jun 30, 2016 3:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2016 3:26 PM Flag

    Let me be clear. I fcd up not Parker per not cashing out but I also held to a large extent because of Parkers super bullishness ...taking pay in stock was one example. That is very rare especially for airline industry . The aggressive buy backs are another example ..but again I got greedy and complacent is the bottom line

  • Reply to

    Effect of Buyback on Earning Per Share

    by not_a_short Jun 30, 2016 3:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2016 3:38 AM Flag

    FYI, all those stocks I sold too soon, do not recall one analyst having a BUY rating on them when I sold them, and I remember Cramer dissing BMY and other big pharma when they were a great buy BO 2011. BMY has been arguably his top pick the last few years but not when it was at 21$ and paying 6% divvy...very hard not to be influenced by the talking heads...

  • Reply to

    Effect of Buyback on Earning Per Share

    by not_a_short Jun 30, 2016 3:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2016 3:26 AM Flag

    Drinking the value/low fuel koolaid like you bears...and psychologically tough to get rid of something that has made you a ton of money...would think would be the opposite and of course a big dose of greed. Hard to go against the herd, do you recall one analyst saying sell at 54$ ? I don't..even King Fish who warned about possible fare pressure had a 65$ PT. Guy from Imperial had a 90$ PT. I remember you posting when pps hit 55$ on SP addition that we were at same price as before 4q ccall selloff and I almost pulled the trigger and sold, cant say didn't have time to sell. Investing is 76% mental and 25% knowledge imo...I've left millions on table in past six years by not selling or selling too soon. Owned ton of CBS at bought at 5$, RDN at 2.50, BMY at 21, sold XL at 7.50, sold CNO at 5,50,NCT at 5....very good at picking winners but not good at timing . Estimated if held stocks I owned in 2010/11 would be up more than 15m and be getting 500-1M year in divies ...sold those stocks way too soon , but aal didn't sell soon enough... crazy

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 30, 2016 11:31 PM Flag

    Today was odd especially since GMA and MIC were up strongly, I added some shares would have added much more but did at 3,00 couple weeks ago...

  • Reply to

    Effect of Buyback on Earning Per Share

    by not_a_short Jun 30, 2016 3:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 30, 2016 11:29 PM Flag

    If Q4 shows yoy growth that would be a game changer, Kirby said revs would be weak thru EOY so very unlikely 3q topline will show yoy growth as Kirby said rev initiatives wont really kick in until 2017. Parker always said margins would be less in 2016 but that was in part because he expected fuel costs to rise when they actually dropped Bottom line is prasm needs to impove and margins need to stabilize/not keep dropping which will be tough with 2q fuel increase..

  • Reply to

    Effect of Buyback on Earning Per Share

    by not_a_short Jun 30, 2016 3:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 30, 2016 10:18 PM Flag

    Sorry. Meant sequential improvement from 1q...and agree margins are critical after the disappointing 2q guide....3q margin was 17.7% last year, if same decline as 2q guide than 3q guide will be about 15.4%...

  • Reply to

    Effect of Buyback on Earning Per Share

    by not_a_short Jun 30, 2016 3:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 30, 2016 9:40 PM Flag

    Parker has been yapping about being great again from 55 to 25$, needs to start yapping about fing stock becoming great again..company is already great again for the employees who nevertheless keep btching the more their comp goes up...l

  • Reply to

    Effect of Buyback on Earning Per Share

    by not_a_short Jun 30, 2016 3:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 30, 2016 9:36 PM Flag

    WAY overdue for a good quarterly report which by definition would be an improvement in prasm yoy, revs will still be weak thru 2016 but MUST show significant 3q prasm improvement and their Secret yield management , cabin segmentation needs to get moving sooner vs later. 20c divvy increase is also a must imo...60c annually would only be a 1% yield at 60$ which is what pps is SUPPOSE to be according to all the koolaid drinkers... not increasing the divy sends the wrong message to investors that industry has NOT changed.... of course have to first get thru June reports next week.

  • Reply to

    Effect of Buyback on Earning Per Share

    by not_a_short Jun 30, 2016 3:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 30, 2016 7:02 PM Flag

    Good post but if you bought a stock at 40$ and it's now worth 28$ I bet you would call it a mistake. I bought aal at 32.50 a few weeks ago and I consider a big mistake because I could have paid 25$...

  • Reply to

    2Q Report

    by cavalier2015 Jun 29, 2016 11:09 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 30, 2016 7:31 AM Flag

    14-16% was correct guide...vs 17.2 in 2015

  • Reply to

    2Q Report

    by cavalier2015 Jun 29, 2016 11:09 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 30, 2016 12:18 AM Flag

    Jet fuel dropped today to 1.33 from 1.40...my guess is 2q margin will be 12.5% vs 12-14 guide, hope they don't lower guide with June report next week...

  • Reply to

    2Q Report

    by cavalier2015 Jun 29, 2016 11:09 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 30, 2016 12:12 AM Flag

    As usual will be all about 3q/4q prasm and margin guides ....fact is aal has guided prasm/revenues down I believe from 4q 2014 if not 3q 2014, that has to change. Kirby said " prasm will be much better in June than April/May" we shall see...I have listened to every ccall since 2q 2014 and in every one the stock has sold off immediately when Kirby gives prasm guide ...

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