Everything rests on China at this stage. Everything which could go wrong for this company has: recession, depressed I/o prices, corruption in Brazil, slowdown in China, dam burst, on and on. Sooner or later things have to get better. The S11D project should be coming online sometime during the second half of the year. I/O prices seem to have stabilized at least for the time being. I am hoping the lows are in, we already have seen some financial institutions start to raise their I/o price forecasts. Lets hope that Vale can show another profit at the end of the month and keep the trend going. If this happens earnings estimates will start to be revised upward for the company, thus resulting in a better stock price. Good Luck.
I think if they can show a profit again at the end of this month I believe earnings estimates will start to be raised for the company. If that indeed does happen perhaps we could begin to see some meaningful price appreciation.
There is a story on Bloomberg this morning saying Brexit will ultimately be a good thing for commodities in that it will lead to more easing as well as increased infrastructure spending by the Chinese, I guess time will tell if this is correct. Good Luck Board!
I don't think anyone can predict with any degree of certainty what is going to happen, but companies such as Vale are not going away. The produce a product which is always going to be needed, plus the company is becoming more cost efficient in changing with the times. Lets just see what happens over the next couple of years.
As far as Obama goes I am not and have never been a fan. I have no respect for the man at all. The racial divide in the country is worse than ever and he certainly did not help matters. He came into office saying there was no such thing as blue or red states, but the United States. He also said it would be the most transparent administration. It has been anything but. Now, apparently he is commuting the sentences of thousands of felons because of their ethnicity. What a sad state of affairs to have 2 clowns like Trump and Clinton up for the presidency, talk about a total embarrassment.
Haven't you noticed the futures, everything is crashing today. While Vale will certainly be involved in today's carnage they have virtually nothing to do with this. China is front and center on their radar screen. As a matter of fact this will probably start to reverse the US dollar which will benefit Vale down the road.
Zacks is a joke, upgrade today, downgrade tomorrow. Vale is a work in progress at the moment. Once the price of I/o stabilizes, and Vale is able to start cutting its debt we should start to see meaningful price appreciation. Until then we are range bound.
A couple of points, which you don't mention.
1. As dismal as things look in Brazil right now recessions do not last forever and as bad as things have gone for Vale (a perfect storm) there certainly are bright spots in its future. A new commodity cycle will happen eventually and the need for iron ore will certainly return to respectable levels at some point.
2. You fail to mention that 2 other once great companies (BHP & Rio) have seen their stock price fall into the hamper as well. Rio at one time was at about a $100 per share and BHP was up around $70. I don't believe the current prices in all 3 of these companies is indicative of where they will be a few years from now.
The price closed at $50.86.
The company is still a work in progress as you know. I don't know when the next commodity cycle will begin, but once it does all these financial institutions will be raising their I/o estimates along with their upgrades on Vale. At this juncture I am more concerned with Brazil getting its act together and begin to come out of this recession. I just hope it can be done. Have a good weekend!
The problems at the moment are these:
1. The price of I/o has not stabilized.
2. Brazil in the worst recession in 100 years.
3. Vale took away its dividend for the time being.
4. The company must show it can generate a profit consistently. Last qtr. was nice, but the previous quarters were horrendous.
5. China, China, China.
6. Vale has to reduce their debt.
Believe me, I want the company to succeed, but right now it is a perfect storm. Good Luck!
There is speculation that Murillo Ferreira will be ousted and a new head at Vale will take over. Since he was a Rousseff appointee do you think it would matter at all for the company? I just hope they don't sell off any major parts of the business before the next commodity cycle comes.
A couple of other things to keep in mind. 1) Brazil is in one of the worst recession's ever, so if they can now implement some policies (now that Dilma is gone)that are pro growth, plus if Vale can start to pay some type of a dividend again at least that will generate some income for shareholders.
Two last points, 1) the debt is huge and must be reduced, they say they are aggressively pursuing asset sales to reduce it by 10 bil next year, 2)they must show that they can steadily make profits, one earnings report doesn't cut it.
I am waiting very patiently (as I am sure you and some others are) for this company to come back. Once I/o stabilizes and that new S11D project comes online (with few hiccups) I think next year we may see $10, lets hope for the best, Good Luck!
Cliffs Natural was upgraded at JP Morgan this morning with a $7 price target and a strong buy rating. Reading between the lines this in the long run means good news for Vale in that if Cliffs is perceived to be at strong buy with a $7 price target then Vale (who is moving in the right direction) will eventually be a much stronger company. Good Luck!